Purdue’s taken a page out of Ohio State’s playbook over the past week.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| #3 Purdue (23-4, 12-4 B1G) | Mackey Arena | 1 p.m. | CBS |
And by that, I mean stringing together disappointing performances that have led to consecutive losses late in the regular season.
Of course, the Boilermakers’ stretch of three defeats in four games is hardly comparable to the Buckeyes’ struggles. Ohio State has now lost seven games in a row and 12 of its past 13 contests in a period that began with a two-point loss to Purdue back on Jan. 5.
But in the past 15 days, the Boilers have quadrupled the number of losses they accrued through the first 23 games of the 2022-23 season. The No. 1 team in the country fell at Indiana on Feb. 4, breezed past Iowa five days later and then fell to Northwestern and Maryland on the road this past week. No longer the top dog in the AP poll, Purdue finally appears fallible entering a matchup with a team it barely defeated back in early January.
Given Ohio State’s six-and-a-half-week slide, though, that may not matter much on Sunday. Purdue’s only lost one game at Mackey Arena all season, and the Buckeyes have just one road win on their résumé. To make matters worse, Ohio State will be down a starter.
Need to Know
Key’s status unclear
The second half of Thursday’s contest confirmed Key’s shoulder issues are far from behind him. The Buckeye big man went to the ground clutching his injured shoulder against Iowa and promptly left for the locker room. Key returned to the Buckeye bench, but was ruled out for the remainder of the game.
Holtmann told the Columbus Dispatch after the game that the team will “see what’s best for him moving forward,” but didn’t firmly shut the door on Key’s chances to return to action in short order. But Ohio State has ruled him unavailable for Sunday, which is not a positive development for the Buckeyes, who face perhaps the most difficult defensive assignment in the country in 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey. Freshman guard Roddy Gayle Jr. is also a game-time decision for Sunday with an ankle injury.
Poor Purdue offense in back-to-back games
The Boilermakers aren’t exactly a track race type of team. After all, they only average the sixth-most points per game in the Big Ten. But Purdue’s offensive performances have been particularly poor in its back-to-back losses over the past week.
Purdue tied its lowest point total of the season in a 64-58 loss to Northwestern last Sunday and hit just 36.2% of its shots in the process. The Boilermakers scored even less in Thursday’s defeat to Maryland, putting up 54 as they misfired on 11 of their 13 3-point attempts. Purdue still held its opponents under 69 points in each of those games, but the Boilermakers have proven capable of being neutralized on the other end.
OSU coming off worst defensive effort
Fortunately for Purdue, its recent offensive struggles will be of little consequence on Sunday if Ohio State replicates the defensive effort put forth against Iowa. The Hawkeyes hung 92 points on the Buckeyes and knocked down 56.9% of their shots in Iowa City on Thursday. Both of those were season-worst marks for the OSU defense, which played so poorly that a 57.1% shooting night by the Buckeye offense was rendered irrelevant. Ohio State held Purdue to just 43.1% shooting in the first matchup, but even that didn’t lead to a scarlet and gray victory.
Three Important Buckeyes
Sean McNeil
Since his season-high 22-point effort against San Diego State back in November, McNeil hadn’t scored more than 15 points in any game for Ohio State. Coming off the bench against Iowa, McNeil knocked down all four of his 3-point attempts to finish the game with 20 points – his second-most of the year. McNeil’s long-range shooting was the sparkplug Ohio State needed in a tough Big Ten matchup on the road, even if it didn’t get the Buckeyes over the top.
Felix Okpara
If Key is limited or ruled out against the Boilermakers, Okpara could make the third start of his young college career. The freshman already has experience defending Edey in the post, as Key’s shoulder injury in the first matchup led to Okpara logging a season-high 30 minutes. Ohio State may require Okpara to shoulder a similar load on Sunday, and how he performs on defense will be vital to the end result.
Brice Sensabaugh
Sensabaugh turned the ball over six times against Iowa, but still managed to break out of his shooting slump with his highest-scoring performance in five games. The freshman shot 6-for-11 from the floor to finish with 16 points in 24 minutes, although it wasn’t enough to keep things close in the second half of the contest. Sensabaugh hit 10 of his 17 shots for a 21-point night in the first game against Purdue, and Ohio State could use an encore performance from its leading scorer this weekend.
Three Important Boilermakers
Zach Edey
| Player | Position | Height | Weight | Season Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRADEN SMITH | G | 6-0 | 180 | 10.2 PPG, 4.3 APG |
| FLETCHER LOYER | G | 6-4 | 185 | 12 PPG, 2.5 APG |
| ETHAN MORTON | G | 6-6 | 215 | 3.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG |
| CALEB FURST | F | 6-10 | 215 | 6.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG |
| ZACH EDEY | C | 7-4 | 285 | 22 PPG, 12.8 RPG |
Even amid Purdue’s struggles over the past four games, Edey’s put up more points (22.3), shot a higher percentage (65.6%) and blocked more shots (3.5) than he averages on the season. The Big Ten’s leading scorer scored a season-high 33 points on 15-for-19 shooting in a loss against Indiana four games ago and pulled down 18 rebounds to boot. Ohio State limited Edey to 16 points in a less-than-dominant performance on Jan. 5, but that doesn’t guarantee a similar defensive effort Sunday.
Fletcher Loyer
Purdue’s second-leading scorer hasn’t been as successful during the Boilermakers’ recent slide. In the last four outings, Loyer’s put up just 9.3 points per game on 32.6% shooting. Despite attempting nearly five 3-pointers per game, the freshman guard has hit just 15.8% of them in that stretch. Loyer will be fresh off of two of his worst performances of the season on Sunday after scoring a combined eight points on 3-for-15 shooting against Northwestern and Maryland.
Braden Smith
Before the first matchup with Ohio State, Smith was averaging just 8.9 points per game on 43% shooting for the season. Including his 16-point effort against the Buckeyes, the freshman guard has put up 11.5 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and averaged 5.1 assists in Purdue’s last 13 contests. Smith has averaged 17.3 points on 54.5% from 3-point range in the Boilermakers’ past three games as he’s asserted himself as a go-to scoring threat late in the season.
How it Plays Out
Line: Purdue -12.5, O/U: 140.5
At this point, Purdue could be coming off of five straight losses and I’d still predict it to beat the Buckeyes in West Lafayette. Devoid of any semblance of momentum, it will take a Herculean Ohio State effort to beat the Boilermakers on the road. And I simply can’t envision the Buckeyes producing one.
Prediction: Purdue 70, Ohio State 60
