Any notion that back-to-back home games would be a saving grace for the Buckeyes was emphatically refuted over the past week.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa (16-9, 8-6 B1G) | Carver-Hawkeye Arena | 9 p.m. | ESPN2 |
Ohio State squandered opportunities to defend the Schottenstein Center against both Northwestern and Michigan State, and now the Buckeyes embark on a two-game road trip during which they won’t return to Columbus in between contests.
The first leg comes against Iowa, the last team to lose to the Buckeyes back on Jan. 21 in a 93-77 Ohio State win that looked promising for the immediate future scarlet and gray. However, that promise quickly proved false, as Ohio State dropped its next six games to mark its longest skid in a quarter-century.
Sitting in sixth place in the Big Ten standings, Iowa’s gone 4-2 since the loss in Columbus with wins over Rutgers, Northwestern, Illinois and Minnesota. Regardless of the result of the last matchup with Ohio State, the Hawkeyes enter Thursday as a favorite to beat the Buckeyes, and rightfully so.
“They're a good team, but they're very good at home. Always a great crowd, energized crowd,” Chris Holtmann said Monday. “They've got really good players. We played very well here, played very well offensively and played well defensively too. They're just a really good rebounding team. They're very good in transition. They're a very good executing team offensively. And their changing defenses can bother you for sure.”
Need to Know
The Hawkeyes are hard to beat at home
Iowa is 12-2 on its home floor this season, and it only suffered one of those losses to a Big Ten opponent. That was back on Dec. 11, when Wisconsin needed overtime to notch a three-point win at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. After stumbling again in a stunner at home against Eastern Illinois two games later, Iowa’s gone 6-0 in its own backyard, with each win coming against conference opposition. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes haven’t won a road game since their Jan. 1 blowout at Northwestern, dropping all six contests they’ve played in hostile territory thereafter.
Flexible starting five
In an effort to kickstart the Buckeyes into second gear, Holtmann’s employed seven different starting lineups over the past 12 games. Given that they’ve only won one game in that period, the effort has been mainly for naught. That doesn’t mean Ohio State will stop trying to find the right mix, though. The Buckeyes started three true freshmen for just the third time all season against Michigan State, with Brice Sensabaugh back in the lineup and Roddy Gayle getting the nod alongside Bruce Thornton – the only Buckeye to start all 25 games this season.
Last matchup vs. Iowa an outlier for Ohio State
The last game between these two programs wasn’t just Ohio State’s most recent win. It was also the last time the Buckeyes mustered more than 70 points in a game, which they did 12 times in the first 15 games. Ohio State needed a big offensive performance to beat Iowa, the highest-scoring team in the Big Ten and ranks sixth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. It may very well need another on Thursday.
But those have been hard to come by in recent weeks, as the Buckeyes are averaging just 60.5 points per game in the six games since beating the Hawkeyes. Ohio State’s coming off its lowest point total in 27 years as the Buckeyes scored just 41 on 28.5% shooting on Sunday.
Three Important Buckeyes
Brice Sensabaugh
The worst stretch of Sensabaugh’s season has now reached three straight games, as returning to the starting lineup against Michigan State didn’t snap him out of his recent slump. Sensabuagh finished with just eight points on 3-for-14 shooting and failed to pull down a rebound for the first time in 19 games. In his last three outings, Ohio State’s leading scorer averaged just 8.7 points on 22% shooting from the field and 13.3% from beyond the arc. However, Sensabaugh turned in a season-best 27 points in the last matchup with the Hawkeyes.
Zed Key
Still battling a shoulder injury he’s dealt with for much of the year, Key has failed to score more than eight points for three straight games, a stretch in which he’s averaged just six points a night. Key didn’t even attempt more than seven shots in any of those contests. The Buckeyes’ starting center said the protective brace he wears impacts his breathing and range of motion, and Holtmann said Key might require surgery after the season.
Roddy Gayle
As Holtmann continues to tinker with different lineups, Gayle made the second start of his career on Sunday and played the most minutes of his freshman season (26). The first-year guard only scored five points on 2-for-6 shooting, but Holtmann said he likes the defensive tenacity Gayle brings to the table, which could mean he continues to get the nod late in the season.
Three Important Hawkeyes
| Player | Position | Height | Weight | Season Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AHRON ULIS | G | 6-3 | 190 | 6.4 PPG, 2.5 APG |
| TONY PERKINS | G | 6-4 | 210 | 11.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG |
| CONNOR MCCAFFERY | G | 6-5 | 205 | 7.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG |
| KRIS MURRAY | F | 6-8 | 215 | 21 PPG, 8.5 RPG |
| FILIP REBRACA | F | 6-9 | 222 | 14.1 PPG, 8 RPG |
Kris Murray
The Big Ten’s second-leading scorer put up 22 on the Buckeyes in the first matchup, and he’s fresh off of 28- and 24-point performances in his last two outings against Minnesota and Purdue. Still shooting above 50% from the floor and 35% from 3-point range during his junior season, Murray will be the Buckeyes’ top defensive priority once again on Sunday.
Filip Rebraca
A top-15 scorer in the conference in his own right, the 6-foot-9 senior forward averaged nearly 15 points per game across the six contests that followed Iowa’s last meeting with Ohio State. Rebraca attempted at least 11 shots in all but one of those games, and after scoring 15 against the Buckeyes on Jan. 21, he’s proven capable of putting up big numbers against the scarlet and gray.
Tony Perkins
Ohio State held Iowa’s third-leading scorer to just eight points in the first matchup as Perkins hit two of his seven shot attempts on an off day for the junior. Perkins has been hit or miss since then, but despite scoring a combined 15 points in his past two performances, Perkins went off for a career-high 32 against Illinois on Feb. 4, missing just three of his 11 field-goal attempts and getting to the free-throw line on 16 occasions.
How it Plays Out
Line: Iowa -7.5, O/U: 153.5
Ohio State’s recent offensive showings give me little confidence it can keep up with the conference’s top-scoring team on its own home floor, even if the Buckeyes defeated Iowa comfortably in the first matchup.
Prediction: Iowa 75, Ohio State 65
