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Film Study - Michigan Prep

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JTFor President2016's picture
by JTFor President2016
11/11/25 at 3:31p in the OSU Football Forum
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With 2 games remaining before the biggest game of the regular season, I figured now was a good time to put out a film analysis on the OSU/Michigan game. Over the past several weeks, I've been slowly working on this. In this thread, we will cover:

  • Michigan's defensive scheme and some nuances to it
  • Why Ohio State's game plan wasn't "that" bad last year
  • How can OSU excel in the 2025 iteration of The Game

Michigan Scheme

Michigan's defense, along with most good defenses, adjust based on their opponent. So with that said, most of my analysis was based off of the 2024 OSU game, 2025 Oklahoma game, and 2025 USC game. Let's breakdown Michigan's scheme on a down to down basis (obviously this is in the "generally" sense as all good defenses will throw a few curve balls in). 

1st down - Primarily Cover-3 or some variation such as QQH (Cover-4 to field side, Cover-2 to boundary side). QQH most often applies when the ball is on the hash. Goal is to stuff the run and create a passing down

2nd down - If successful on 1st down, Michigan generally will switch to a 2 high defense such as Cover-2 or Cover-4. Goal is to take away to deep shots, and create a 3rd and medium

3rd down - This is where Michigan will get more creative. However, in the 2024 game, we rarely saw Michigan blitz in these situations. Based off of Sayin's stats against the blitz this year, I predict this will happen again. You will most likely see very aggressive matching zones out of 2 high looks. Michigan is ultra aggressive at playing the sticks in these zones. 

In the early stages on the 2024 game, OSU was able to pick up on these 1st down trends, and it looks identical to how OSU has operated the past few weeks. Meaning - if you get a Cover-3 look, run an RPO with a relief route being a curl to an outside WR. 

As I said, this is identical to OSU's strategy this year. See below from the Wisconsin game. 

However, while OSU moved the ball at will during both of the drives shown above, troubles entered when they got to the other side of the field. The Wisconsin drive was saved by Carnell Tate and Sayin making a ridiculous play, but the Michigan game was not. 

After Henderson missed a wide open lane for a touchdown, OSU was forced into a 3rd and 5. Here is where I note how aggressive Michigan is in their zones at the sticks. Notice how quickly the CB jumps EE's route and runs straight into him, leading to an incompletion (You'll also notice how Michigan has 3 THREE guys defending Smith on this play). 

The 2nd drive of the Michigan game was the same story. Easily moved the ball right down the field. However, on 1st and 10 from the Michigan 23, OSU tried a run play that ended all to familiar. One of OSU's biggest (among many) issues running the ball against Michigan, is containing the backside. Michigan is ultra agressive in attacking their DE or WILL LB off the back edge to run down plays from behind. 

USC showed earlier this year, that you have got to combat this with some form of "action" to the weakside, on their way to rushing for 224 yards on 6.2 ypc. In this play, you will see the RPO that is attached to the outside run. This RPO freezes the backside of the defense and does not let them crash. 

In the next play, you will see USC run an OSU staple (Counter). However, they add in an RPO relief off of it. This freezes the weakside to prevent Michigan from blowing through the gap vacated by the pulling Tackle and Guard 

 

Why the Gameplan itself wasn't "that" bad

With this being said, scheme only goes so far. The game still lives and dies with execution. In a very simple term, RPO's do one thing. They change the "numbers". Generically, if the defense is in a 4-2-5, they have 7 box defenders (1 safety will drop to make it a 4-3 look post-snap). In 11 personnel, the offense has 6 blockers. 7-6 advantage for the defense. To even the numbers, you can do 1 of 2 things. Attach a QB read (if your QB can run), or attach an RPO. Both of these are aimed at freezing a weakside defender from getting to his run fit. This makes it 6-6. The problem is...the game of football is not playing in arithmetic class. 6 blockers for 6 defenders is only successful if your blockers are winning their 1-on-1. And over the past few seasons, OSU is quite simply getting their ass beat in 1-on-1's. In this play, OSU does attach a weakside RPO to freeze the defense. But it doesn't matter. Within 1 second, both Carson Hinzman and Austin Siereveld are 2 yards in the backfield. 

 

Not being able to run the ball is not ideal; however, it doesn't mean you can't find ways to generate pass plays that act like de-facto runs. In fact, Ohio State could have been up 17-10 in 2024 had Howard found Henderson 2 consecutive times. In addition, you will see how USC did the same type of thing to Michigan this season. When Michigan does blitz, they love to play a very soft coverage behind it. In the play below, Michigan sends 5, and plays a 4 over 2 coverage behind it. Meaning a TON of room for Henderson. 

On the VERY NEXT play, Michigan once again has a 4 over 2 look. But Howard stares down Carnell Tate for far too long, and never seen Henderson wide open. 

As I mentioned, USC was able to take advantage of routes like this throughout the game. From a scheme perspective, Michigan can be vulnerable to these types of plays for the following reasons. One, Michigan loves bringing sim pressures, meaning they bring 4 but you don't know who, as 5-6 guys can be up on the line. And 2, they love playing aggressive match patterns. What this means, is that the line defender who is dropping into coverage, often has to turn his head to the play to find his man, since he is pattern matching, and not just dropping into a soft zone. See below. You will notice the DE #8 have to turn and run to his assignment, giving the WR an easy block on the screen:

In addition to the short game, USC also showed a potential path to beat Michigan over the top. Several times through the game, USC would use 12 personnel, but line everybody out wide in an empty set. With Michigan likely changing their personnel to match a heavier set, this led to opportunities deep. The first play shown in an incompletion, but one that Sayin and Smith make more times than not.

 Later in the game, however, USC was successful. Once again out of 12 personnel, USC attacked the slot WR position with 4 verticals against Cover-4. 

Interestingly enough, over the past few weeks, we have seen Ohio State increasingly use Jeremiah Smith in the slot position. Here is the problem it presents. On this play, you will see OSU motion the TE outside of Smith. The defense shifts, but doesn't follow. This indicates zone. Because Smith is in the slot WR spot, this means he will have inside leverage against the CB (who is lined up opposite of the TE), meaning the "extra" safety over the top will have to shade Smith's way to take away the post route. This gives Tate an easy 1-on-1. 

How can OSU be successful this season:

As good as Michigan's defense has been, there are a few other factors that the general masses ignore. In 2022, every running back was hurt, JSN was out, and EE was visibly still hurting. In 2023, we had McCord and Fleming was WR#2 on the outside. Last season, Will Howard played his worst game in a Buckeye uniform, and it really wasn't until the CFP that Howard proved he could take the top off the defense consistently. 

This season and this team should have Buckeye fans more confident. Why:

  1. Sayin is deadly accurate deep
  2. Sayin is great at getting through his reads and getting to the checkdown. And as we saw, the checkdown can be a big play versus this Michigan defense
  3. OSU has ran much more gap schemes. I did not show it in this thread, but Michigan is extremely susceptible to gap schemes. In fact, the bulk of USC's 224 rushing yards came on Gap
  4. Max Klare. Having a TE that can stress the defense deep is a game changer for Quarters and Cover-2 coverage, which Michigan loves to run in passing downs. By having a viable TE option over the middle, the safety to his side must account for him, potentially giving Tate or Smith an easy 1-on-1. 

Any concerns:

  1. OSU cannot be afraid to pass on early downs. In fact, USC threw the ball on 1st down consistently. If Michigan is playing Cover-3, we have to take advantage
  2. ST and getting off the field. Watching the game from last year, it was incredible how many times we shot ourselves in the foot and lived in terrible field position. Michigan, while only scoring 13 points, was able to control the ball and get down the field. In addition, at one point Michigan had a 68 yard punt because we failed to field it, and it rolled forever. We then followed that up with a 31 yard punt of our own. Finally, to start the second half, we failed to catch the KICKOFF and the ball died at the 6 yard line. Self-inflicted unforced errors killed us, just as much as the gameplan and lack of execution did. 

 

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