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NCAA's Stats for Red Zone Are Dumb

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WinningForLackOfABetterWordIsGood's picture
10/24/25 at 4:08p in the OSU Football Forum
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The NCAA measures the success of a team's red zone defense based on what percentage of RZ trips result in a score of any kind -- OSU opponents have scored in some fashion on 6 of their 12 trips, so the NCAA gives the OSU RZ defense a 50% rate, which ranks #1 in the nation.

I think a better stat would be points per RZ trip. OSU opponents' 12 RZ trips have resulted in 2 TDs and 4 FG ... 2x7=14 and 4x3=12, so OSU has allowed 26 points in 12 trips, or 2.17 per trip. We would still be an overwhelming #1 in the nation by that metric.

By the NCAA's stat, Alabama is #3 in red zone defense (17 trips, only 11 scores ... 64.7%). But 10 of those 11 scores have been TDs, so Alabama is allowing 4.29 points per trip. In comparison, Indiana ranks 40th per the NCAA (10 trips, 8 scores ... 80%). But Indiana has allowed only 2 TDs to go with 6 FG (32 points, or 3.20 per trip), which is actually the second-best in the nation per RZ trip (SMU and East Carolina are next at about 3.63). ...... There are other examples - Arkansas State, which the NCAA ranks 31st in RZ defense (9 spots ahead of Indiana), allows a whopping 5.30 points per trip because they rarely hold anyone to a FG.

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