I know Illinois was a game circled on the schedule coming into the season, but Ohio State is better than people thought, and Illinois is worse than people thought. Yet the line is 14.5.

That surprised me and had me check all the advanced stats that I usually review for bigger games. Sure enough the overall SP projection is 31-19 Ohio State, which again shocked me, so I wanted to look into the numbers.

In my opinion Illinois matches up horribly with Ohio State.

Note that given the tempo variation in college football I almost always focus on per play statistics, which I think give a better metric.

ILL O vs. OSU D

• Illinois has given up 19 sacks in 6 games (OSU has given up 2 in 5 games) and they are in the 9th percentile in havoc rate (i.e., they give up pressure at a clip that is worse than 91% of other teams when they pass). Ohio State has 14 sacks on the year.
• Their rushing EPA/play (i.e., expected points added per play when they run the ball) is 106th. For comparison Ohio State's middling run game that we all want to see improve is 62nd.
• The Illini are in the 10th percentile in stuff rate when they run (i.e., their rush goes for 0 or negative yards at a clip that is worse than 90% of other teams). Their  runs get stuffed 23% of the time, or almost one of every four carries. 
• Ohio State's defense is 8th overall in EPA/play, 8th in passing EPA/play, and 24th in rushing EPA/play.
• ILL is admittedly great in the passing game (16th in passing EPA/play), but given their havoc rate allowed and stuff rate, they are likely constantly going to be behind the sticks against an Ohio State defense giving up 5 points per game.

ILL D vs. OSU O

• Under the radar is that the Illini's defense is awful.
• They are 105th in EPA/play overall, 94th in EPA/play per pass, and 98th in EPA/play per rush. They do not stop anything. 
• Their defense is 51st in SP+'s model; for reference Minnesota is 34th and Washington is 25th.
• Illinois is giving up 42 points per game against P4 teams (Duke, Indiana, USC, Purdue). 
• The only thing they are good at is takeaways -- they have forced 10 turnovers.

I am completely lost at how this is a two-touchdown line. Illinois is going to be in 3rd and 8+ all game and that is a losing formula. Defensively they have not stopped anybody and I highly doubt they are going to hold Ohio State to less than what Purdue scored (27). 

So ya, I'm dumbfounded at how this isn't something like 38-10 Ohio State come 3:30 on Saturday.