This post is not at all a Parker Fleming vindication. He was horrible in executing, and there is not a single person that will question that. However, I can already foresee OSU fans fuming angry in Week 1 based on some of the decision making you will see from the Special Teams, mainly in the return game. 

Analytics play a role in every area of Football; however, Special Teams is where the mathmagicians really have their stronghold. There is not a better analytic out there that coaches love more than "expected points per starting field position". Urban Meyer talked about this quite extensively when it came to his coffin corner kick strategy, which would sometimes lead to balls sailing out of bounds. More on this strategy later. 

Talking Point 1 - Fielding punts at the 5 yard line: I fought tooth and nail on social media and on this site last year, to much disdain, about how OSU was CORRECT to field punts at the 5 yard line, which goes against the old rule of thumb to never field a punt inside the 10. OSU is not the only one. In fact, a simple google search "college football field punts at the 5" will bring up fuming message board posts from Clemson, Alabama, and our own fanbases. What is the disconnect between what fans think is right, and what teams are actually doing? The answer is analytics, and more specifically "expected points per starting field position". Below you will see the expected points per starting field position (PpP) at the 10 yard line, 5 yard line, 3 yard line, and 1 yard line (the latter 2 assume a punt is not caught, and dies close to the goal line). This data was gathered from 2007-2022. 

10 yard line - 1.45 points per possession (PpP)

5 yard line - 1.40 PpP

3 yard line - 1.18 PpP

1 yard line - 1.00 PpP

What does this mean? Starting at the 5 yard line compared to the 10 yard line is nearly meaningless. The success rate is nearly identical. However, there is a massive drop off once you get closer to the goal line. This is why coaches are teaching their kids to stand on the 5 instead of the 10 nowadays. A VERY important note. A punt that is kicked from the 50 yard line or closer, only goes into the end-zone 10% of the time if it lands between the 5 and 9 yard line. With these stats, it is a complete no-brainer to field a punt that is going to land at the 5 yard line and rule out the possibility of it rolling closer. 

I almost forgot to add this part. I know someone is going to say "Well some punts will bounce back a few yards and give us better field position". Remember, the stats tell us the 5 yard line and 10 yard line are the same thing. So even if a punt does bounce at the 5 and move back up to the 10, it is meaningless in the analytical world and does not shift the odds. 

Talking Point #2 - Returning punts vs. fair catching: It has been a long time since the days of Ted Ginn, what felt like, a long return every single week. In fact, this year could mark the 10 year anniversary of OSU's last Punt Return TD, in which Jalin Marshall returned one against Indiana in 2014. 

This talking point is not as straight forward, as there is a lot more at play, and coaches themselves hold different beliefs. However, watching some tape on Ohio State, it does look like they fit the analytical mold. Going back to Urban Meyer again, he mentioned multiples times the importance of your own 40 yard line, and there is a reason. Once you cross your own 40, there is a significant rise in your odds to score points. See below for drive odds based on starting field position:

Own 30 yard line - 2.14 PpP

Own 35 yard line - 2.20 PpP

Own 40 yard line - 2.42 PpP

Own 45 yard line - 2.69 PnP

You can see from the numbers above how essentially the 30 and 35 will yield the same results. However, once you get closer to the 40 and beyond, the numbers shift drastically. When it comes to the return game, multiple things play a role. Injury concerns, muffing concerns, and illegal block in the back concerns. It is very possible that these concerns outweigh, in the coaches minds, the reward for returning a punt that lands at the ~30 yard line. However, for punts fielded closer to midfield, the numbers may shift enough that they outweigh these risks. This is all coaching preference. Nick Saban for one, does not factor in the risks, and believes that you can't try and coach around injuries/potential penalties, and should always look for a return because they can be game changing plays. He said in an article that just one return can win you a ballgame, which in turn, can be the difference in whether you are playing for a championship or not. I can argue this point and say that OSU wins the 2013 Orange Bowl if Philly Brown made a fair catch. Again, preference. 

Watching back on some OSU tape from the past few seasons, they seem to be game-planning with analytics. In fact, there are numerous examples of JSN, Emeka Egbuka, Ballard, etc... calling for a fair catch as soon as the ball is punted that will be caught between the 25-35 yard line. The hand wave is so fast, that you can't even see it on TV sometimes. That is a pre-determined call. However, the returners did look for return opportunities closer to midfield. This is where the coaches may have deemed the reward to be greater than the risk. Punting teams having to use max protect during these types of punts, also plays a role. 

Talking Point #3 - Coffin Corner Kickoffs - This one does not apply anymore with the ability to fair catch kickoffs, but I wanted to include it, because again, it is an analytical dream. Urban Meyer said that a well executed coffin corner kickoff would pin your opponent inside the 15 yard line. We all know that a touchback brings the ball to the 25 and a kick OOB brings it to the 35. What do the numbers say from a PnP perspective in regards to starting field position:

15 yard line: 1.64 PpP

25 yard line: 1.90 PpP

35 yard line: 2.20 PnP

These numbers show that the reward for a well executed kick (net gain of -0.26 PpP compared to a touchback) is not worth the risk of an OOB kick (net loss of 0.30 PnP). However, most kicks during the Urban era did not go OOB. Assuming OSU had 7 kickoffs per game (based on average PPG and start/halftime), here is where the reward becomes higher than the risk. 

Even if the kicker only executed 4/7 kickoffs and 3 went out of bounds, the average PpP on those 7 drives would be 1.88 (net gain of -0.02 PpP). That is amazing. We all spent so much time being angry when 1 kick went out of bounds, when in reality, OSU was actually winning the advantage as long as >3 kicks didn't fly out of bounds. 

Thanks for reading. I'm sure this type of thread isn't for everyone, but there may be some nerds like myself that enjoy this type of stuff. Moral of the story: When OSU fields a punt inside the 10 yard line next season, remember this thread, and maybe you won't need an Aspirin.