I must apologize once again for not completing this last week. I have been unusually busy with work. I guess the good news is that I don’t think the Indiana game is as revealing as a game like this against Maryland. Going into Michigan, I think we know a lot more about what we can expect from this team going forward.

The big story from this game is the tale of two halves with the running game, though even that is overshadowed by the game this Saturday. Everything else we saw on Saturday with the offense has been known for a while, and this game didn’t tell us a lot that was new. However, how the running game changed in this game is extremely encouraging for the rest of the season.

Here is the play-by-play: 

After that, I feel both much worse and much better about this offense. I feel much worse because I thought Ryan Day called a pretty good game, and it never felt like this team was just working on certain things like they did at times in the past couple of months. Everything that they called made sense in the context of the game, and the offense still didn’t look super crisp. That is not a great feeling to have going into the Michigan game.

However, I feel much better about the offense after this game because this game reinforces every other game this year; when the defense tries to take away one part of the offense, it opens up the other part of the offense. Because although the running game struggled in the first half, as soon as Ohio State switched to Hayden, the offense exploded. Look at some of these grades for the offensive line:

That offensive line performance is better than I have seen this entire season regardless of competition. I know Ohio State played Maryland and they don’t exactly have a great front, but that was a beatdown.

The running back situation was one of the big reasons that Ohio State didn’t dominate further on the ground. Henderson had a “worst-of” game, where he brought back some of his worst habits from last year along with his bad health this year to produce that game. I would like to stress that I actually like most of his performance better this year than last year. While I don’t think he is singularly the reason that Ohio State struggled running against Michigan last year, I think he was a huge culprit. Michigan couldn’t stop the run against any team with a pulse in 2021. Last year, Henderson would constantly pick the worst possible path to go, as compared to this year, where he usually avoids that, but he still misses good cutback lanes. This game was just frustrating because his usual performance this season would have been fine. He didn’t need last year’s explosiveness or unusual vision. I don’t think his performance would have been as good as Hayden’s, but he could have averaged like 4 YPC instead of 1.8 YPC. Most of his issues were not related to his health, though he did have a couple of plays where it looked like he could have made them had he been healthier. It just wasn’t his night.
 

While I don’t think Henderson is nearly as bad as this performance was, I do think Dallan Hayden showed that he can more than carry the load while Henderson recovers. If you’ve read these all season you might notice that for as many carries as Hayden got, his score is a little low. When I watched the game live, it felt like he was basically perfect. As I rewatched it, my opinion changed a little bit. He hit the holes as they opened up, but he missed a couple of others from rushing into the line rather than waiting for the blocks to develop. Watching Chase Brown and Blake Corum this weekend showed how some of these runs could be executed. Still, it was mostly a very good game for Hayden, as he seems to be easily the best running back on the roster for Ohio State’s favorite run play: outside zone. He has the vision to find cutback lanes with outside zone, but the speed to get to the outside if it is there. Williams and Henderson have one of those qualities each, but neither of them have both. I imagine that Hayden will have increased playing time moving forward, as Sermon did in 2020 after he had success with that play against Michigan State. I do think that if Williams is healthy enough to play, he should get plenty of carries, though. I think Williams would have had a huge day against Maryland.

The bigger reason for optimism is the offensive line after that performance. I thought they were nearly perfect, both in run blocking and pass protection. The few pressures were from rare, but well-timed blitzes or from Stroud exiting the pocket early. The holes in the run game were plenty. I think it would be hard for them to play much better next week. If Matt Jones can’t go next week, there might be some cause for concern. Michigan is certainly a different beast than Maryland. Also, I would be surprised if Michigan uses the same strategy from last year and the same one that Maryland used in this game; force Ohio State to run with a light box in order to devote more resources to the passing game.

Because even though the running game was the best part of Ohio State’s offense on Saturday, their passing attack is still the more lethal half of their offense. Here are the relevant passing charts:

This passing offense felt like it barely missed a few plays throughout the game. The long third down throw to Fleming, a couple of different throws to Egbuka that were either broken up or dropped, a couple of throws to Harrison that were nearly caught, a couple of throws to Harrison that were just barely overthrown, etc. I am not overly concerned about the passing offense performing, though I want to see it click eventually. This still feels like it could be a special unit.

I know this is about the most lukewarm take that I could have, but I do think that the offense loses a lot without JSN. I know there are some that are concerned about upsetting chemistry within the offense, but I think they need to take the chance. Right now, Ohio State has one guy in Harrison that they are quite dependent on. Egbuka is another solid option, but he isn’t a dominant receiver yet. Fleming is fine as a #3, but he isn’t doing much more than that yet. JSN replacing Fleming is a pretty significant increase in production, and it would allow Ohio State to use more of the playbook that they were planning to use prior to the season. The offense they have without JSN is certainly quite good, but it won’t reach an elite level without him.

What should we be worried about for Michigan?

Honestly, I came out of this a little more concerned about the offense as a whole than I was before this game. For at least a few of the games in the middle of the year, it felt like there was a self-imposed limitation on the offense. Instead of operating at maximum capacity, they were using games as live scrimmage. In this one, I thought Ryan Day called a good game and the offense still didn’t look dominant against a poor Maryland defense. I still don’t think it was ultimately that bad of a game; Ohio State moved the ball fine in the second half after Hayden came in. Still, this offense has not performed nearly as well as last year’s outfit did at this point in the year. The offense is still the strength of the team, but they are not as good as last year’s version.

If you were to pick one thing from the offense, the passing game has not been as great as expected over the past month.  Fleming has settled into his role of a solid #3 guy, but he is a far cry from Olave last season at Z. Egbuka is not as reliable as JSN was last year at H. Only Marvin Harrison can be compared favorably to Garrett Wilson at X, though I don’t think he is a huge upgrade by any means. Even if Stover is better than Ruckert, they just don’t use the tight end enough for it to matter much. Again, they are still good, but they aren’t good enough to hide the warts from the rest of the team.

What should we not be worried about for Michigan?

Play-calling. I know that at times, the play-calling has seemed overly conservative or vanilla. After this game, I don’t imagine that it will be a concern against Michigan. I am absolutely convinced that they were working on things for most games, as their best-called games this season have coincidentally been against their best opponents.

I also think the offensive line should be up to the task against Michigan. Last year, the unit constantly had games where they struggled against good defensive fronts, like they did against Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, and Oregon. This year, the only negatively graded game for the offensive line was against Northwestern, which feels like a fluke for multiple different reasons. Michigan has a great front, but I don’t foresee the offensive line having anywhere near the difficulty they had last year with the Wolverines.

What should we be excited about for Michigan?

The running game. I don’t know exactly how Michigan will try to attack Ohio State, but if they try to leave a light box like last year, it won’t work. Michigan’s defensive front is excellent, there is no doubt about it. With the offensive line’s improvement and the emergence of Dallan Hayden as the best running back on the team at running outside zone, I feel a lot more confidence in their ability to run the ball in the event of Michigan devoting extra resources to the pass. If even Michigan can’t shut down the Ohio State offense, I don’t know if there is a defense in the country that will be able to.