Throughout the season, I have been analyzing Ohio State’s offensive and defensive performance compared to opponents’ seasonal averages.  I focus on three key metrics: points, total yardage, and yardage per play.  The opponents’ seasonal averages exclude games played against OSU (or whomever I am analyzing).  I adjust certain statistics as explained in each section below.  I do not adjust for “garbage time” to avoid inconsistently applied judgment and complexity.

In preparation for The Game this Saturday, I draw the analysis between Ohio State and TTUN to compare how the rivals line up on opposite sides of scrimmage.  For both teams, let’s look at how they performed throughout the season as well as against common opponents.

All statistics and data from https://www.sports-reference.com.

With both teams undefeated through eleven games, both teams are strong on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  The Buckeyes defense ranks #10 in scoring allowing 16.9 points per game (PPG) and #9 nationally in total defense allowing 283.4 yards per game (YPG).  TTUN offense ranks #9 in scoring with 39.4 PPG and #23 in total offense gaining 452.6 YPG.  Rather than rely on unadjusted statistics, I prefer to compare how well the teams perform relative to their opponents averages and adjusting for scores that occur off turnovers or special teams.

Ratios less than 1 indicate OSU defense has advantage; ratios greater than 1 indicate TTUN offense has advantage.

• SCORING

FOR THE SEASON, Ohio State has allowed 186 total points; however, only 164 points were scored against the defense for a net average of 14.9 PPG.  Opponents have scored an average 26.9 PPG against other teams.  Ohio State has allowed opponents to scored just 53% of their scoring average against other teams.

TTUN has scored 433 total points with 407 scored by the offense for a net average of 37.0 PPG.  TTUN opponents have allowed an average 24.3 PPG.  TTUN has scored 161% of the average score opponents allow to other teams.

AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS, both teams improved their scoring.  Ohio State has allowed fewer PPG (13.0) and a lower ratio to opponents’ average score (75%).  TTUN has scored fewer PPG (33.4), but that’s a higher percent of the average allowed by those opponents (164%).

Ohio State’s defense appears to have the scoring advantage when TTUN has the ball.  Both teams have respectable scoring stats, but Ohio State has shown more consistency defending against opponents scoring than TTUN has shown at putting points on the board.  The Ohio Stadium crowd should provide a measure of disruption as TTUN has rarely visited such a hostile road environment.

• RUSHING

FOR THE SEASON, opposing offenses have attempted rushes 56% of plays against Ohio State.  The Silver Bullets have allowed 1187 rushing yards (107.9 per game and 3.1 per carry).  Against other teams, opponents have rushed for 143.7 YPG and 3.9 YPC.  Ohio State has allowed opponents to rush 76% of their average yards per carry.

TTUN has attempted rushing plays on 62% of offensive snaps and has gained 2682 rushing yards (243.8 YPG and 5.5 YPC).  TTUN has rushed for 146% of the average yards per carry allowed by opponents.

AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS, both teams performed a bit better.  Ohio State has allowed 2.5 YPC or 70% of the opponents’ average.  TTUN has gained 5.3 YPC which is 159% of the average allowed by those opponents.

TTUN appears to have the advantage when its offense attempts rushing plays.  Along with everyone at 11W, I’ll be watching how effective Corum and Edwards can play through their late season injuries.  TTUN has relied heavily on the dinged-up duo for most of their offensive production throughout the season

• PASSING

FOR THE SEASON, The Silver Bullets have allowed 1930 passing yards (175.5 YPG, 6.4 per attempt, and 10.9 per completion with 58.5% completion rate).  Opponents pass for 215.7 per game, 6.9 per attempt, 11.6 per completion, and 59.6% completion.  Ohio State allowed opponents to pass for 89% of their average YPP.

TTUN offense has passed for 2297 yards (208.8 per game, 7.8 per attempt, and 11.9 per completion with a 65.9% completion rate).  Opponents have allowed other teams to pass for 214.9 per game, 6.6 per attempt, 11.1 per completion, and 59.4% completion.  TTUN passed for 120% of the average YPP allowed by opponents.

AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS, Ohio State’s defense performed better while TTUN’s offense was less productive.  Ohio State allowed 5.4 YPP or 83% of the opponents’ average.  TTUN has gained 6.6 YPP, 102% of those opponents passing average.

When TTUN attempts passing plays against the Silver Bullets, it appears that the teams are evenly matched.  Both teams have highly talented rosters in these position groups, but their on-field execution has been inconsistent.  It will be interesting to see how much freedom Harbaugh allows for his quarterback to create plays with scrambling and down field passing.

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS.  The matchups pitting the Silver Bullets against the TTUN offense should keep fans on their feet.  The teams match up evenly whether TTUN calls rushing or passing plays.  

PREDICTION.  No scientific approach here, it feels like this could be a slugfest where Ohio State earns hard fought success to limit TTUN’s offense.  Ohio State allows 20 points to the rivals, importantly forcing them to settle for a couple field goals instead of TDs. 

See "Buckeyes Offense Against TTUN" for analysis and predictions for the other side of the line of scrimmage.

On balance, it appears that OSU has the overall advantage given that they appear more balanced than TTUN has shown to date.  Regardless, the Game appears set up to be an epic edition in this storied rivalry.