Throughout the season, I have been analyzing Ohio State’s offensive and defensive performance compared to opponents’ seasonal averages.  I focus on three key metrics: points, total yardage, and yardage per play.  The opponents’ seasonal averages exclude games played against OSU (or whomever I am analyzing).  I adjust certain statistics as explained in each section below.  I do not adjust for “garbage time” to avoid inconsistently applied judgment and complexity.

In preparation for The Game this Saturday, I draw the analysis between Ohio State and TTUN to compare how the rivals line up on opposite sides of scrimmage.  For both teams, let’s look at how they performed throughout the season as well as against common opponents.

All statistics and data from https://www.sports-reference.com.

STRENGTH ON STRENGTH.  The Buckeyes offense ranks #2 in scoring with 46.5 points per game (PPG) and #9 nationally in total offense with 492.7 yards per game (YPG).  TTUN defense ranks #2 in scoring allowing 11.7 PPG and #1 in total defense allowing 241.3 YPG.  Rather than rely on unadjusted statistics, I prefer to compare how well the teams perform relative to their opponents averages and adjusting for scores that occur off turnovers or special teams.

Ratios greater than 1 indicate OSU offense has advantage; ratios less than 1 indicate TTUN defense has advantage.

• SCORING

FOR THE SEASON, Ohio State has scored 511 total points; however, only 478 points were scored by the offense for a net average of 43.5 PPG.  Opponents have allowed other teams to score an average 22.9 PPG.  Ohio State has scored more than double (207%) the scoring allowed by opponents to other teams.

TTUN has allowed 129 total points with 115 scored against the defense for a net average of 10.5 PPG.  TTUN opponents have scored an average 23.9 PPG.  TTUN has allowed opponents to score just 45% of their average score against other teams.

AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS, both teams improved their scoring.  Ohio State has scored 45.8 PPG which is 235% of the average that those opponents allow other teams to score.  TTUN has allowed 10.2 PPG, only 44% of those opponents average against other teams.

Neither team appears to have the scoring advantage while Ohio State has the ball.  Both teams have elite records, Ohio State at scoring offense and TTUN at scoring defense.  One caveat, Ohio State has scored frequently, earning 0.651 points per offensive play.  Even with teams trying to keep the ball away from CJ Stroud and company, Ohio State has run 733 plays on offense.  Because TTUN typically plays ball control offense, its defense has been on the field for only 648 plays during the season.  Though TTUN has allowed just 0.171 points per play, Ohio State may gain the advantage if it is able to keep the TTUN defense on the field longer than comfortable.

• RUSHING

FOR THE SEASON, 55% of Ohio State offensive snaps have been rushing plays that have gained 2239 yards (203.5 per game and 5.5 per carry).  Opponents have allowed other teams to rush 140.7 YPG and 3.7 YPC.  Ohio State produces rushing yards at 150% of the average allowed by opponents to other teams.

While opponents have attempted rushes on 48% of plays against them, TTUN has allowed 875 rushing yards (79.5 YPG and 2.8 YPC).  TTUN allows opponents to rush just 65% of their average yards per carry.

AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS, Ohio State’s offense fared a bit worse while TTUN’s defense performed incredibly better.  Ohio State gained 5.3 YPC or 143% of the opponents’ average.  TTUN has allowed 1.9 YPC, 47% of those opponents rushing average.

TTUN appears to have the advantage when Ohio State attempts to run the ball.  Much ink has spilled covering the Ohio State rushing offense and injuries to RBs and OL.  If Dallan Hayden is able to keep up the spark he showed in the second half against Maryland and either Miyan Williams and/or Treveyon Henderson are able to contribute meaningful plays, the Ohio State rushing attack may have better chance of success running against TTUN.

• PASSING

FOR THE SEASON, the Ohio State offense has passed for 3181 yards (289.2 per game, 9.7 per attempt, and 14.5 per completion with a 67.1% completion rate).  Opponents have allowed other teams to pass for 203.7 per game, 6.4 per attempt, 11.0 per completion, and 58.2% completion.  Ohio State passed for 153% of the average YPP allowed by opponents.

TTUN has allowed 1779 passing yards (161.7 YPG, 5.3 per attempt, and 9.9 per completion with 53.6% completion rate).  Opponents pass for 205.1 per game, 6.6 per attempt, 10.9 per completion, and 60.5% completion.  TTUN allowed opponents to pass for 88% of their average YPP.

AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS, Ohio State’s offense was more productive while TTUN’s defense performed worse.  Ohio State gained 10.1 YPP or 162% of the opponents’ average.  TTUN has allowed 6.1 YPP, 96% of those opponents passing average.

Ohio State appears to have a significant advantage when passing against TTUN.  Ohio State produces elite numbers in the passing game, but TTUN brings what appears to be the best defensive back end that Ohio State has faced since Penn State.  Playing in the Shoe should help Ohio State’s execution, but unfortunately rain in the weather forecast could disrupt the Buckeyes game plan.

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS.  The series when Ohio State is on offense should provide the most compelling matchups of the day as the teams line up strengths against each other.  TTUN may hold the advantage when Ohio State attempts rushing plays, but Ohio State looks to have the upper hand with its passing offense and ability to score points. 

PREDICTION.  No scientific approach here, it feels like this could be a slugfest where Ohio State successes are hard won.  Ohio State scores 27 points, matching the season high that TTUN yielded to Maryland.

See "Buckeyes Defense Against TTUN" for analysis and predictions for the other side of the line of scrimmage.

On balance, it appears that OSU has the overall advantage given that they appear more balanced than TTUN has shown to date.  Regardless, the Game appears set up to be an epic edition in this storied rivalry.