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Early Thoughts on The Game

+8 HS
themostbrian's picture
November 21, 2022 at 10:54am
54 Comments

Wanted to share a few general thoughts. TLDR: I'm expecting a low-scoring, defensive game where the line of scrimmage battle and field position on both sides will be critical to the outcome.

  • I'm expecting a low-scoring affair. These are two very good defenses that have the tools to slow down both offenses. I think 30 points wins the game, either way.
  • Last year Ohio State only managed 64 rushing yards against Michigan and you could argue that Michigan's defensive line is even better this year, despite losing two elite defensive ends. Michigan has, in my estimation, the best defensive tackle pairing in the country and they have consistently won the line of scrimmage and taken away the inside run game all season long. Ohio State, on the other hand, has struggled to run the ball consistently against lesser teams AND has a bonafide injury crisis in their running backs room. I would be genuinely surprised if Ohio State can run the ball consistently next Saturday - Miyan Williams and Dawand Jones being healthy would give me slighly more optimism.
  • Michigan also has an injury crisis in their running backs room, with both Corum and Edwards being potentially questionable for the game. Personally I expect both to play but how effective they are remains up in the air.
  • For me, this game is somewhat old school in that it really comes down to who wins the line of scrimmage and who has better field position - OSU's DL vs. Michigan's OL is going to be an absolute war all day, and that is the battle that Michigan has won consistently all year. OSU's DL is by far the best they have played. And OSU's OL vs. Michigan's DL is what lost the game for OSU last year - OSU's OL could not protect Stroud and could not open up holes for the running game. Keeping Stroud upright and staying on schedule in terms of down/yardage with the run game will be critical. I don't expect a lot of 80 yard drives - the team who takes advantage of a shorter field will have a huge advantage.
  • This is going to come down to which offense can consistently make plays - I'm optimistic about Ohio State here because of the clear advantage in passing talent with CJ Stroud, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Emeka Egbuka. (secret weapon: Cade Stover attacking Michigan's linebackers) And it's going to come down to which defense can ramp up the pressure and get the opposing offense behind schedule - it's going to be even more difficult than usual for BOTH offenses to convert 2nd and 15s and 3rd and 9s.
  • And to that point, I want to add some data. Michigan (#1) and Ohio State (#2) lead the entire nation in defensive stop rate - stop rate measures the percentage of opponent drives that end in punts, turnovers, or a turnover on downs. Michigan's defense has an 84.2% stop rate and Ohio State has an 80.8% stop rate. Michigan is conceding 0.86 points per drive (#1 nationally) and Ohio State is conceding 1.09 points per drive (#3 nationally). These are two elite defenses and I think that will be reflected in the game itself, with fewer scoring opportunities leading to a more tactical war of field position, with special teams play as a potential gamebreaker.
  • Ryan Day has had a now undefeated year to think about how to attack Michigan on offense and protect CJ and Jim Knowles has had nearly a year to install his defense and figure out how to attack Michigan's offense. Given that the game is at home and the weather forecast looks good right now (clear, sunny, high 40s / low 50s) I'm optimistic that Ohio State will have excellent conditions to operate within. But I'm a bit terrified of Michigan carving out 8 minute touchdown drives with 90% running plays that OSU's defensive line simply cannot stop. And then seeing CJ getting pressured repeatedly.
  • Monday of game week prediction: 4 quarter battle, Michigan has a fair bit of 1st half success and maybe even leads at halftime, 2nd half OSU makes some adjustments and figures out how to slow down the run game. Michigan leads 23-20 in the 4th quarter - JJ is strip sacked and Steele Chambers scoops and scores. On the ensuing Michigan drive, JJ has to pass and gets intercepted by Tanner McCallister. Ohio State wins 27-23.

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