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Some Evening Playoff Theorizing....

+6 HS
Buckiowa's picture
December 5, 2020 at 5:41pm
75 Comments

So, great team win today. I think we took a big step forward in terms of the eye test and getting a CFP spot and we'll be in, barring a cancellation and not being able to find a replacement game. However, I did some thinking, and I realized that if the CFB season plays out as expected, the committee is gonna have an optics problem like never before. Let's assume every team that is favored to win plays and wins their games, including Clemson beating Notre Dame in a rematch in the ACC Champ Game. Then we'd probably be looking at a CFP bracket like the one below. Remember, the CFP committee tries to avoid rematches at all costs, so they wouldn't put Clemson and Notre Dame together for a third time.

1. Alabama

2. Clemson

3. Ohio State

4. Notre Dame

Which, at first glance, seems to make sense right? Now, let's imagine that the Notre Dame-Clemson rematch is a beatdown. Notre Dame's play in recent weeks hasn't inspired much confidence, and Clemson has obviously been much better since their loss to Notre Dame as they've gotten critical starters back. So anyway, let's say Notre Dame loses to Clemson by a score of 42-13 or something like that, which I think is definitely possible. Do you see the optics problem there? In that scenario, Notre Dame just lost badly to the committee's 2nd ranked team and their solution is to match them up against their top-ranked team? That doesn't make any sense to me. How are they supposed to have a shot at being the best team when they just lost to the 2nd best team? But who do you put in instead of Notre Dame? Florida would have two losses, so, uh....Texas A&M? How are they supposed to be competitive when they already got crushed by Alabama? Not to mention, the committee doesn't do rematches in its CFP semis so the rankings would probably end up like 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Texas A&M, 4. Ohio State, which to me, is incredibly hard to justify. So, if not Texas A&M, then, maybe....Cincinnati? That's a stretch. Georgia? Nope. Iowa State? Definitely not. BYU? Feels a bit better than the others. Indiana? Oklahoma? There just doesn't seem to be a good answer here, and it looks like the committee has painted themselves into a corner by putting a team that's going to lose it's last game of the season in the position to be in the CFP. I see only one way the committee gets out of this mess, Notre Dame would have to beat Clemson in the rematch. Then, the committee can exhale. 

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