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How Indiana Impacts OSU's Resume

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TheBadOwl's picture
November 23, 2020 at 10:55am
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I've seen a lot of hoopla about Indiana "exposing" Ohio State. Let me get this out of the way: Saturday's game was miserable for a lot of reasons and there are major issues that the secondary has to clear up.

One of the other blogs (BSB I think) had a good breakdown about some of the secondary issues and how it partially boils down to guys just not doing what they're supposed to do. Marcus Hooker in particular, stepping up to cover an already-covered intermediate route multiple times while someone gets open behind him for a huge gain. 

It felt miserable to watch. But let's take the feeling out of the equation and just look at the numbers. 

OSU's defense is (rightly) drawing criticism for giving up 491 passing yards. They held IU to -1 rushing yards. It's not great for a defense to give up 490 total yards! But let's compare to the other contenders this year:

Number of games giving up 450+ yards (rankings are from week 13 AP poll)

Ohio State: One Time

  • vs #12 Indiana (4-1): 490 yards

Florida: Three Times

  • vs Ole Miss (3-4): 613 yards
  • vs Arkansas (3-5): 458 yards
  • vs #6 Texas A&M (5-1): 543 yards (loss)

Texas A&M: Two Times

  • vs #1 Alabama (7-0): 544 yards (loss)
  • vs Arkansas (3-5): 461 yards

Alabama: Two Times

  • vs #6 Texas A&M (5-1): 450 yards
  • vs Ole Miss (3-4): 647 yards

Notre Dame: One Time

  • vs #4 Clemson (7-1): 477 yards

Clemson: One Time

  • vs #2 Notre Dame (8-0): 518 yards

I did not include BYU and UC in this because I don't think they will be considered by the committee unless two of the SEC teams above and one of the ACC ones end up with two losses, but neither of their defenses have given up 450 yards in a game this year. 

The other major criticism is that Ohio State only beat Indiana by a touchdown. Fair point! But Indiana is #12 in the country and Ohio State and it is the only one-score game Ohio State has played this year. 

Which brings me to this: number of games that ended with a margin of seven points or less. 

  • Alabama: none
  • Notre Dame: two (5-point win over unranked Louisville, 7-point 2OT win over Clemson)
  • Ohio State: one (7-point win vs #12 Indiana)
  • Clemson: two (6-point win over unranked BC, 7-point 2OT loss to Notre Dame)
  • Florida: one (3-point loss to #6 TAMU) 
  • TAMU: two (5-point win over unranked Vanderbilt, 3-point win over #5 Florida)  
  • UC: one (3-point win vs unranked UCF)
  • BYU: one (7-point win over unranked UTSA) 

So here's what we see if we compare resumes and eliminate recency bias. 

  • OSU's defense is not uniquely weak compared to the other P5 playoff contenders, in fact it's likely better than all of the three SEC teams vying for a playoff spot and maybe a couple of notches behind Notre Dame and Clemson
  • Other than Alabama, every other team in the field has either had a closer call with a worse team than Indiana or has lost a game, or both. 
  • The notion that Ohio State has been "exposed" by IU is, to some degree, fair, but rooted in recency bias. 

This year is a LOT different than last year, which had four historically great teams (LSU, OSU, Clemson, Alabama before Tua's injury) -- this year, every team has its warts, Ohio State included. But as it stands right now, it's hard to argue with Bama being number one and Notre Dame at two. Ohio State has what is clearly the strongest resume of anyone after that. 

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