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SP+ Rankings and Playoff Contenders

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Spartan13's picture
October 6, 2020 at 12:24pm
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SP+ rankings after week 5 and Bill C also did a story detailing who is left alive in the playoff race. Here are some rankings notes:

  • OSU still at 1
  • Bama jumped Clemson for 2. Bama gained almost 3 points after destroying A&M. A&M vs Florida is a big game to watch because if A&M is actually a good team then Bama may be incredible this year. Clemson also surprisingly gained a couple of points despite letting Virginia hang around. Clemson Miami is going to be a very good gauge to see if Clemson is elite or just very good. 
  • #4 Georgia is starting to climb after a great week. They are now basically tied with where Bama was last week. Its early and they have a tough schedule but its not hard to picture Georgia as the 4th playoff team. 
  • Notre Dame(5) PSU(6) Wisconsin(7) all still ahead of Florida is a bit surprising. Florida actually dropped a point this week because of how poorly their defense played again. 
  • Miami gained a point and a half which is quite a bit. They arent great but they are a legit top 10 team and should be a good test. 
  • Oklahoma dropped 2 full points but are still #10 because basically everybody else is just bad. #10 Oklahoma(17.3) is closer to #46 FSU(5.4) then it is OSU(30.2)

SP+ playoff contenders, Bill C also estimated the record it would take for them to get in by each conference.

  • Pac 12(must go undefeated)-USC, Oregon, and Washington each have about a 10% chance of going undefeated. Opt-outs have rekt Oregon who was the favorite. USC has a lot back on offense which could help them in this crazy year.
  • SEC(9-1 regular season)-Bama has a 60% chance of doing that and Georgia has rocketed up from 25% to 45%. Georgia is the real story because if they beat either Bama or Florida they win everything else they may be a lock for the playoff with the Big-12 being bad. Florida has a 35% chance which reflects more of how bad their defense is than anything else. Their schedule is pretty favorable. Florida vs Georgia may be a CFP play-in game. 
  • Big-12(1 loss regular season)- Oklahoma State(17%) Texas(5%) are the only options. OkState barely survived WVU and Tulsa already so they arent really scaring anybody and Texas basically has one loss that can be forgiven if they win out. SP+ doesnt think they are gonna win out though.
  • Gods Conference(7-1 regular season)-OSU has a staggering 80% chance of making the playoff. They are the #1 team in SP+ and the only tough games are @PSU and Michigan. Even if OSU loses 1 they may still make the playoff. Wisconsin is next at 40% and they have a sneaky chance, if they beat Michigan and Minnesota they could go 8-0 and a single loss to OSU would give them a real argument. PSU is at 35% and if they can upset OSU they could block us from Indy and take the playoff spot. Minnesota is at 14% and is similar to Wisconsin but just a worse team. Michigan is at 4% based on a brutal schedule and a not great team. 
  • ACC(1 loss regular season)-Clemson is basically a lock for the playoff. Notre Dame has a 38% chance of having just 1 loss while Miami has a 15% chance of just 1 loss. For those teams the argument would be having 2 losses to Clemson.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/30036576/college-footba...

 

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