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Comparing OSU vs UM QBs and Results

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jpfbucks01's picture
May 4, 2020 at 12:29pm
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I decided to go back and look at the QB ratings of the starting QBs in the rivalry over the last 30 years and compare them to the game results. This was somewhat based on the Steve Deace video in which he put a bunch of the blame on UM not winning on this being a fact

So first, it the QB rating for the 2 starters were within 5 points of each other I considered it a wash. As an example if 1 QB complete 66% of 300 passes for 3000 yards and 30 tds vs 10 ints and another had 1 less td and 5 less completions that would be a nearly 3 point QB eff rating, ie hardly noticeable

I further did not analyze the dual threat of the given QBs which obviously plays a role

That said here we go

Games in which OSU had the definitively better rated QB (95, 96, 97, 98, 02, 05, 06, 07, 08, 10, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19) ie 16 times, OSU is 13-3 in those games with all 3 losses being the games in the 90's under Cooper, ie the Springs slip, Timmy for 300 and the 97 UM National Champ team

Games in which they were essentially rated even (90, 04, 09, 11, 15, 16) ie 6 times. OSU is 4-2 in those games. The 2 losses being in 1990, When Frey and Grbac had essentially even stats, and we lost by 3 with Frey being stopped on option run and 2011 when Miller and Robinson were essentially ranked even and we lost by 6 and had a chance to win.

Games in which UM had the definitively higher rated QB (91, 92, 93, 94, 99, 00, 01, 03) ie 8 times, OSU is 2-5-1 in those games.

Couple times when the results were particularly note worthy

1992 - Grbac was a much better QB than Herby, but the game was at home, drizzly rainy day, Grbac got hurt early in the 2nd Quarter so they played their unproven as yet back up Todd Collins the rest of the way and we got a Tie

1994 - Todd Collins was actually almost 20 points higher rated than Hoying although Bobby was no slouch. This is the infamous punched blackboard game from Cooper as we got a 16 point win.

2001 - Both Krenzel and Navarre that year were pretty weak, but our D made it stand up and we held on to win even though Navarre was ranked considerably better than Krenzel who was making just his 2nd start

1996 - The Germaine/Jackson tandem was significantly better than Scott Dreisbach, Germaine by over 20% and Jackson by about 10%, but Springs slip and Brian Griese replacing Dreisbach helped cost us the game

2015 - JT and Rudock were essentially evenly rated, with Rudock actually being about 2 points higher at the end of the year. But the running combo of Zeke and JT (214 and 139 respectively with 5 tds combine) plus knocking Rudock out of the game leading to Speight, lead to an easy 29 point win with the Bucks dominating the 2nd half 28-3

2012 and 13 - Braxton was a significantly better QB than Devin Gardner, but our D allowed 2 big plays of over 50 yards in the first half in 12 and made Gardner look like Joe Montana in 13 and the results were 2 much closer than they should have been wins, 26-21 and 42-41.

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