| Team | Record | BCS Rank | BCS Average | AP Poll | AP Avg | Coaches | Coaches Avg | Computer | Computer Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | 12-0 | 1 | 0.9780 | 2 | 0.9665 | 2 | 0.9675 | 1 | 1.0000 |
| LSU | 12-0 | 2 | 0.9772 | 1 | 0.9859 | 1 | 0.9856 | 2 | 0.9600 |
| Clemson | 12-0 | 3 | 0.9245 | 3 | 0.9271 | 3 | 0.9263 | 3 | 0.9200 |
| Georgia | 11-1 | 4 | 0.8687 | 4 | 0.8749 | 4 | 0.8713 | 4 | 0.8600 |
| Oklahoma | 11-1 | 5 | 0.8099 | 6 | 0.8110 | 6 | 0.8088 | 5 | 0.8100 |
| Utah | 11-1 | 6 | 0.7738 | 5 | 0.8226 | 5 | 0.8288 | 8 | 0.6700 |
| Baylor | 11-1 | 7 | 0.6737 | 8 | 0.6929 | 8 | 0.6981 | 9 | 0.6300 |
| Florida | 10-2 | 8 | 0.6672 | 7 | 0.7323 | 7 | 0.7094 | 11 | 0.5600 |
| Wisconsin | 10-2 | 9 | 0.6372 | 10 | 0.6265 | 10 | 0.5950 | 7 | 0.6900 |
| Penn St | 10-2 | 10 | 0.6252 | 12 | 0.5742 | 11 | 0.5913 | 6 | 0.7100 |
Despite continued poll inertia from voters, Ohio State claims the top spot in the narrowest of margins over LSU. How narrow? If 2 voters who had OSU above LSU in either the AP or Coaches poll switched their votes, LSU would jump ahead (after 5 decimal places). And who do we not see in the top 10? Everyone's favorite school from Tuscaloosa. I wonder which phase of depression Nick Saban is in today?
Looking at the numbers, there is a decent drop off (5 points) from OSU/LSU to Clemson, and again from Clemson to Georgia, and again from Georgia to Oklahoma/Utah. Then a 10(!) point drop from Utah to Baylor. What does this mean? Probably nothing since all of these teams will be playing this weekend and things will adjust, but there's a good chance that LSU and OSU could both stay in the top 4 with losses, barring voters being crazy. See my comment in this thread about how the Colley Matrix, one of the BCS computers, would shake out in that scenario.
| Team | Record | BCS Rank | BCS Average | CFP Poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 11-0 | 1 | 0.9843 | 2 |
| Ohio St | 11-0 | 2 | 0.9692 | 1 |
| Clemson | 11-0 | 3 | 0.9262 | 3 |
| Georgia | 10-1 | 4 | 0.8623 | 4 |
| Alabama | 10-1 | 5 | 0.7730 | 5 |
| Oklahoma | 10-1 | 6 | 0.7679 | 7 |
| Utah | 10-1 | 7 | 0.7297 | 6 |
| Penn St | 9-2 | 8 | 0.6322 | 10 |
| Florida | 9-2 | 9 | 0.6148 | 11 |
| Baylor | 10-1 | 10 | 0.6113 | 9 |
Several differences from the BCS to the committee last week - for starters, the PSU win was enough for the committee to put OSU back at #1. The BCS needed the Michigan win in there as well to do that, though poll inertia is making the margin closer than the computers think it should be (perfect 1.0000 in the computers is incredibly rare).
The key differences are lower in the top 10. Utah above Oklahoma still puzzles me but I really think they want to give Utah a path should they win the PAC XII and are saying they would get the nod over Oklahoma. Otherwise I just don't see the justification. Oklahoma had 16 points more than Utah in the computers last week (that's 4 places on average) and 14 more points this week. The voters only rank Utah as high as they do because the committee did it first. Definitely doesn't bode well for Oklahoma's playoff chances should both teams win.
The other difference was Minnesota appearing above Penn State at 8 despite being outside the top 10 in the BCS. Since Minnesota lost this week, that will sort itself out in tonight's rankings.
I personally think that the committee will closely mirror the BCS this week - the top 7 will be exactly the same, with the exception that Utah probably stays ahead of Oklahoma and ends up at 5. We'll have 3 2 loss teams in the top 10 and I wouldn't be surprised if Alabama was one of them. I think you'll have PSU as the first at 8, then Alabama at 9, then either Wisconsin or Florida at 10. Does Alabama deserve it? I say no, but I'm not the committee. If it were up to me Wisconsin would be 9 and Florida 10. Alabama should be somewhere around 11/12 just behind Auburn as the first 3 loss team.
