It will be fascinating to see what the committee does with spots 8-12. Bama, owner of 0 quality wins, loser to the only 2 ranked teams it played, has so little justification the be in the front of that group. But yes, wouldn't be surprised to see them at 8 or 9, because Bama.
But yes, wouldn't be surprised to see them at 8 or 9, because Bama.
I know it's going to happen and every part of me screams no.
The important thing is they can't possibly get into the top 4. LSU and Ohio State would both stay ahead with losses, the winner of Oklahoma/Baylor is going to stay ahead, and Utah would for sure stay ahead if they beat Oregon. Beyond that I could care less where Bama ends up. Outside the top 10 would be fine, just to prove a point, though.
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I like that Bama isn’t even in the top ten.
Under the BCS system, if chalk held this weekend, we'd be meeting LSU in the national championship game in New Orleans (not the Sugar Bowl), while Clemson would have to settle for playing Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, most likely, hoping to snag the AP title. Utah would have to settle for playing Wisconsin or Penn State in the Rose Bowl.
Definitely a much better system.
Agreed. And, eight would cause a logjam of two loss losers. Might as well make it 16, if it had to expand.
Oklahoma/Baylor winner vs. Utah. Oklahoma gets another "quality win" against a team they already beat. Does that justify keeping them ahead of Utah with a win over Oregon? That's the huge question and the answer will decide #4 most likely (assuming LSU doesn't lose).
According to the BCS, Oklahoma would likely get the nod, but the committee has been valuing Utah for some reason. It could end up being the first time in the playoff era where the two systems disagreed on the top 4. Maybe the committee will do it just to say "we aren't just a front for the BCS" (despite the BCS literally actually owning the playoff).
BCS Properties, LLC holds all properties related to the College Football Playoff. Previous BCS commissioner Bill Hancock is the executive director of the playoff organization, with former ACC Senior Associate Commissioner Michael Kelly as COO. Like the BCS, the playoff system's management committee consists of the conference commissioners from the 10 FBS conferences and Notre Dame's athletic director. The playoff system's headquarters is in Irving, Texas.
Very true. I'd have to think the AP and coaches poll would put Clemson back in 1st as a reaction to try to 'correct' the computer numbers. Either that or they wouldn't have been as quick to let them fall from 1 as they are now.
Also, this is showing the BCS as an even average of the 2 polls and the 1 computer model. Wasn't there a change to give the human polls more weight later in the BCS reign?
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I looked it up. This formula is the reaction to the 2003 season and was in place until it was replaced after 2013
Yes, as you mentioned I am using the formula that was in place from 2004 until 2013 (specifically, the 2004 formula that used the AP instead of the Harris poll since the Harris poll no longer exists).
Those pre-2004 formulas were awful and there's no way I would try to compute them...
I'm curious where Notre Dame falls in the BCS and the CFP ranking. Same record as Bama, two nearly equivalent Top 25 losses, but a pair of Top 25 wins (Navy & UVA) that Bama doesn't have.
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Edit: You'll notice that the computers say Notre Dame is the better team, but the voters don't.
I figured that might be the case. This is why they should pick one poll or the other, but not both. Or, weight the two polls as 25% each and the computers as 50%. Humans are so easily biased by their preconceived notions.
Humans are biased by their preconceived notions, and cam easily be influenced by each other as well. It's been pretty evident in the polls (AP/Coaches) that they tend to "correct" themselves once the CFP comes out. If they see the committee is way off with where they have had a team, they tend to move in that direction in the following polls. That didn't happen as much before the CFP when there was much more poll inertia. Teams didn't tend to move much unless there were losses.
i prefer this timeline.
I feel like the committee read my prediction and my personal ranking because other than the order of PSU, Wisconsin, Florida, I nailed it. Even got Alabama behind Auburn right, just outside the top 10!