Mock BCS Rankings - Week 14

Show All Comments

I'm Ron Burgundy's picture

It will be fascinating to see what the committee does with spots 8-12.  Bama, owner of 0 quality wins, loser to the only 2 ranked teams it played, has so little justification the be in the front of that group. But yes, wouldn't be surprised to see them at 8 or 9, because Bama.

HS
I_Run_The_Dave's picture

But yes, wouldn't be surprised to see them at 8 or 9, because Bama.

I know it's going to happen and every part of me screams no.

The important thing is they can't possibly get into the top 4.  LSU and Ohio State would both stay ahead with losses, the winner of Oklahoma/Baylor is going to stay ahead, and Utah would for sure stay ahead if they beat Oregon.  Beyond that I could care less where Bama ends up.  Outside the top 10 would be fine, just to prove a point, though.

Your signature will be publicly displayed at the end of your comments.

HS
Gratefulbuck's picture

I like that Bama isn’t even in the top ten. 

HS
MW2014's picture

Under the BCS system, if chalk held this weekend, we'd be meeting LSU in the national championship game in New Orleans (not the Sugar Bowl), while Clemson would have to settle for playing Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, most likely, hoping to snag the AP title. Utah would have to settle for playing Wisconsin or Penn State in the Rose Bowl. 

Definitely a much better system. 

HS
Gratefulbuck's picture

Agreed. And, eight would cause a logjam of two loss losers. Might as well make it 16, if it had to expand. 

HS
I_Run_The_Dave's picture

Oklahoma/Baylor winner vs. Utah.  Oklahoma gets another "quality win" against a team they already beat.  Does that justify keeping them ahead of Utah with a win over Oregon?  That's the huge question and the answer will decide #4 most likely (assuming LSU doesn't lose).

According to the BCS, Oklahoma would likely get the nod, but the committee has been valuing Utah for some reason.  It could end up being the first time in the playoff era where the two systems disagreed on the top 4.  Maybe the committee will do it just to say "we aren't just a front for the BCS" (despite the BCS literally actually owning the playoff).

Your signature will be publicly displayed at the end of your comments.

HS
I_Run_The_Dave's picture

From Wikipedia:

BCS Properties, LLC holds all properties related to the College Football Playoff. Previous BCS commissioner Bill Hancock is the executive director of the playoff organization, with former ACC Senior Associate Commissioner Michael Kelly as COO. Like the BCS, the playoff system's management committee consists of the conference commissioners from the 10 FBS conferences and Notre Dame's athletic director. The playoff system's headquarters is in Irving, Texas.

Your signature will be publicly displayed at the end of your comments.

HS
Meek's picture

Very true. I'd have to think the AP and coaches poll would put Clemson back in 1st as a reaction to try to 'correct' the computer numbers. Either that or they wouldn't have been as quick to let them fall from 1 as they are now.

Also, this is showing the BCS as an even average of the 2 polls and the 1 computer model. Wasn't there a change to give the human polls more weight later in the BCS reign?

- OSU ISE -+-  Premium Banter -+- OH48 80k -

HS
Meek's picture

I looked it up. This formula is the reaction to the 2003 season and was in place until it was replaced after 2013

- OSU ISE -+-  Premium Banter -+- OH48 80k -

HS
I_Run_The_Dave's picture

Yes, as you mentioned I am using the formula that was in place from 2004 until 2013 (specifically, the 2004 formula that used the AP instead of the Harris poll since the Harris poll no longer exists).

Those pre-2004 formulas were awful and there's no way I would try to compute them...

Your signature will be publicly displayed at the end of your comments.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I'm curious where Notre Dame falls in the BCS and the CFP ranking.  Same record as Bama, two nearly equivalent Top 25 losses, but a pair of Top 25 wins (Navy & UVA) that Bama doesn't have.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
I_Run_The_Dave's picture

Ask and ye shall receive:

Mock BCS Rankings - Week 14 - Expanded
Team Record BCS Rank BCS Average AP Poll AP Avg Coaches Coaches Avg Computer Computer Avg
Ohio St 12-0 1 0.9780 2 0.9665 2 0.9675 1 1.0000
LSU 12-0 2 0.9772 1 0.9859 1 0.9856 2 0.9600
Clemson 12-0 3 0.9245 3 0.9271 3 0.9263 3 0.9200
Georgia 11-1 4 0.8687 4 0.8749 4 0.8713 4 0.8600
Oklahoma 11-1 5 0.8099 6 0.8110 6 0.8088 5 0.8100
Utah 11-1 6 0.7738 5 0.8226 5 0.8288 8 0.6700
Baylor 11-1 7 0.6737 8 0.6929 8 0.6981 9 0.6300
Florida 10-2 8 0.6672 7 0.7323 7 0.7094 11 0.5600
Wisconsin 10-2 9 0.6372 10 0.6265 10 0.5950 7 0.6900
Penn St 10-2 10 0.6252 12 0.5742 11 0.5913 6 0.7100
Alabama 10-2 11 0.5932 9 0.6420 9 0.6675 15 0.4700
Auburn 9-3 12 0.5594 11 0.6174 12 0.5606 14 0.5000
Notre Dame 10-2 13 0.5262 14 0.4736 14 0.4850 10 0.6200
Oregon 10-2 14 0.4814 13 0.5155 13 0.5488 16 0.3800
Memphis 11-1 15 0.4502 16 0.3968 16 0.3938 11 0.5600
Michigan 9-3 16 0.4126 17 0.3891 18 0.3388 13 0.5100
Minnesota 10-2 17 0.3736 15 0.4407 15 0.4300 20 0.2500
Boise St 11-1 18 0.3192 19 0.2987 17 0.3488 18 0.3100
Iowa 9-3 19 0.3134 18 0.3465 19 0.3138 19 0.2800
Cincinnati 10-2 20 0.2166 21 0.1529 21 0.1769 17 0.3200
Appalachian St 11-1 21 0.1942 20 0.1858 20 0.2069 22 0.1900
Navy 9-2 22 0.1623 23 0.1394 23 0.1175 21 0.2300
USC 8-4 23 0.0961 24 0.1013 24 0.1069 24 0.0800
Virginia 9-3 24 0.0897 22 0.1490 22 0.1200 NR 0.0000
SMU 10-2 25 0.0743 NR 0.0323 NR 0.0406 23 0.1500

Edit:  You'll notice that the computers say Notre Dame is the better team, but the voters don't.

Your signature will be publicly displayed at the end of your comments.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I figured that might be the case. This is why they should pick one poll or the other, but not both. Or, weight the two polls as 25% each and the computers as 50%. Humans are so easily biased by their preconceived notions. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
TShell's picture

Humans are biased by their preconceived notions, and cam easily be influenced by each other as well. It's been pretty evident in the polls (AP/Coaches) that they tend to "correct" themselves once the CFP comes out. If they see the committee is way off with where they have had a team, they tend to move in that direction in the following polls. That didn't happen as much before the CFP when there was much more poll inertia. Teams didn't tend to move much unless there were losses.

HS
booj's picture

i prefer this timeline.

HS
I_Run_The_Dave's picture

I feel like the committee read my prediction and my personal ranking because other than the order of PSU, Wisconsin, Florida, I nailed it. Even got Alabama behind Auburn right, just outside the top 10!

Your signature will be publicly displayed at the end of your comments.

HS