So arguably, with the exception of next week when they reveal the four teams that will play in the playoff, you'd have to believe this week is the most important reveal of the CFP rankings.
I wanted to write out some possible outcomes for this week heading in the CCG weekend, and get the pulse of 11W in regards to likelihood of each happening.
1. Ohio State comes in ranked #6 behind: 1. Alabama 2. Clemson 3. Notre Dame 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma
Likelihood: highest.
I think this is the most likely scenario, even if I think we're a better team than OU, I still feel like the Purdue loss is going to hinder us getting that 5th spot over them. In this case, to get into that final four, I think we would have to put the hammer down on NW, and may even need OU to lose to Texas or just look awful in the process.
2. Ohio State comes in ranked #5 behind: 1. Alabama 2. Clemson 3. Notre Dame 4. Georgia
Likelihood: Next highest probability, but not very likely
I think this would be the most ideal possibility that is somewhat realistic. I think our W over Michigan, the #4 team at the time with the #1 defense, being by the margin that it was (even with OU beating a ranked WVU team but it being a track meet where the team with the ball last got the W), makes this the fairest scenario, but we're talking about human subjectivity with the committee, odds are this won't be the case.
3. Ohio State comes in ranked #4 behind 1. Alabama 2. Clemson 3. Notre Dame
Likelihood: Probably no chance at all
I think this scenario means they value that Michigan W so highly that they stake the claim that the Buckeyes are indeed already one of the best 4 teams in the country despite the Purdue L, and they recognize that Ohio State is the "hot team" at the right time. Again, not likely, but weighing our schedule and W/L's to Georgia it's not impossible. Beating the snot out of Michigan takes a ton of that Purdue stink away, and Georgia doesn't have a win that's nearly as impressive on their schedule.
I feel like, in terms of likelihood, this makes the most sense. I do think we are a better team than Oklahoma, and I also feel like we are better than Georgia, however, they don't have a loss as rough as ours to Purdue. I think being ranked 6th and looking for OU to drop the ball against Texas, or the strength of massacring Northwestern is going to be our best bet. What say you?
