College football has always struggled to select a National Champion.
Initially there just weren't enough data points with 6 and 7-game seasons and schedules that included community college intramural squads.
Then there was the question of whether the Bowl Games were pageant scrimmages or real games. Bama finishes the 1964 season as AP National Champs at 10-0 ahead of 10-0 Arkansas. Bama loses their bowl game; Arkansas wins theirs. Meanwhile the Big Ten and PAC are unwilling to send the same team two years in a row. Had OSU defeated Mich in '69, the Bucks would have been National Champs without heading to Pasadena.
Even once bowl games became "accredited" matchups, there were still years where multiple undefeated or multiple one-loss teams were left like 1996 and 1997. Enter the BCS.
The BCS was great in years like 2002 with clear 1 vs 2 scenarios, but was a mess in years like 2003, 2006, 2007, 2011, etc. where there is a cluster at the top. Enter the CFP.
As early as year 1 the CFP was criticized for leaving teams out with Baylor and TCU.
We could go to 6 but then are we really rewarding the bye to the absolute two top teams? History from the CFP tells us we can't accurately pick the two top teams as two 4-seeds have won it all. We could go to 8, but then CCGs become irrelevant with losers and winners BOTH gaining admission to the CFP. Last year OSU and Wisconsin and Auburn-UGA could have walked to midfield, hugged and talked about CFP travel plans without ever taking a snap. Heck, even with 8, the committee indicated undefeated UCF would have been out last year based on final rankings.
So ultimately, what's the problem? The problem is that we are trying to determine a NC with everyone playing by different rules. ND doesn't have to play in a CCG or conference because...because they are ND? The SEC doesn't have to play 9 conference games because, well because they are the SEC. Teams can play 12-game schedules but claim 7 home games. P5 teams can play as many as 3 or 4 non-P5 opponents. In 2017, one-loss Bama sat at home while undefeated Wisconsin played themselves out of the CFB by losing to a top 10 OSU team by 6. If Bama ends with one loss to a top 10 UGA team this year, then they deserve to be in because they pass the eye test despite a 3-loss LSU being their only impressive win but when Wisconsin lost one game last year they weren't even close to the CFP discussion?
The solution isn't an 8-team playoff (heck, last year an 8-team playoff would have put Auburn in and left UCF out). The solution is getting everyone on the same rules.
1. We need either 4 or 8 conferences with every team that is in competition for a NC being included in these conferences. ND isn't independent because of history. ND is independent because they can use their schedule as a National recruiting tour and can avoid a CCG. If the Big XII is to stay, then sort the non-P5 teams into 3 conferences and let them compete in an 8-team playoff. If the Big XII is done, then take the BIG, PAC, ACC, and SEC winners, save for an occasion where an undefeated non P-5/P-4 team ranks ahead of a multiple loss major conference team.
2. If every team is playing 12 games then every team plays 6 home and 6 away. If two teams desire to play a neutral site game, then they each give up a home game to do so. The purpose of college football is not to subsidize 35 varsity sports, 34 of which are losing money. If your Ath. Dept. can't hack it on just 6 home games and bowl and merchandise revenue, then cut a men's pistol team or a men's and women's field hockey teams which are money pits. That's not a title IX problem - that's a too many sports problem.
3. Every team plays 9 conference games and 3 non-conference games. None of this nonsense that the SEC is too strong to play 9 conference games. If Ohio State is playing at Iowa and at Purdue, then Bama and UGA need to be playing at South Carolina and at Arkansas instead of scheduling an extra non P5 game against the Citadel or Louisiana Tech, or Middle Tenn State.
4. Conferences need to collectively determine how to select champions and stand behind their champions. If 2016 PSU and 2017 UGA are the best their conference can offer, then that's who goes to the playoffs. If the thought of an 8-4 NW team potentially representing the Big Ten is appalling or the thought of a 2016 OSU or 2017 Bama being left out is appalling, then do away with CCGs and select the highest ranked team.
Ultimately, College football needs an even playing field that results in exclusively conference champions, all products of the same scheduling system meeting in a 4 or 8 team playoff.
Odds of this happening? 0.0% So long as Ohio State can make more money by playing an extra home game, so long as ND can schedule a National recruiting tour, so long as Bama can point to two wins over LSU and Miss State because of how tough their conference is, allowing them freedom to schedule 4 cupcakes, so long as Texas gets their own TV deal preserving the Big XII, and so long as ESPN rakes in ridiculous profits off of controversy, nothing will change. Wish it could...
