Yesterday, I posted in the forum some comparisons between this year and 2016. I referenced an article from 2016 I found in my research of the 11W archives, comparing the common opponents of 2016 for Ohio State and the Wolverines. This is something I've kinda been doing mentally all year to try and gauge how good those boys in blue really are. I decided to try and really break down this year's common opponents.

I'll start by comparing apples to the apples (same opponent, same venue). There were three of these in 2018. Both teams hosted Indiana and Nebraska, and both teams traveled to East Lansing to face the Spartans.

INDIANA

Ohio State Result: Ohio State won 49-26. Ohio State led by 4 after the first quarter, led by 8 at the half, led by 9 after three quarters and won by 23. Indiana had 406 total yards to Ohio State's 609. Ohio State was -1 in turnovers and -47 net yards in penalties.

TTUN Result: TTUN won 31-20. TTUN trailed by 4 after the first quarter, trailed by 2 at the half, led by 8 after three quarters and won by 11. Indiana had 385 total yards to TTUN's 507. TTUN was +1 in turnovers and +17 net yards in penalties.

Conclusion/Advantage: Ohio State played this game a week after their emotional victory in Happy Valley. TTUN played this game the week before this week's trip to Columbus. I'll call the "trap factor" a wash here. Ohio State overcame a turnover and penalty deficit in this game to win more comfortably than TTUN did. Advantage: Ohio State.

NEBRASKA

Ohio State Result: Ohio State won 36-31. Ohio State led by 9 after the first quarter, trailed by 5 at the half, led by 9 after three quarters and won by 5. Nebraska had 450 total yards to Ohio State's 481. Ohio State was -2 in turnovers and penalties were pretty even.

TTUN Result: TTUN won 56-10. TTUN jumped out to a 20-0 first quarter lead and never looked back. Nebraska had 132 total yards to TTUN's 491. TTUN was +1 in turnovers and penalties were pretty even in this one too.

Conclusion/Advantage: Everybody knows that the Nebraska team that played in Columbus wasn't the same Nebraska team that played in Ann Arbor. Nebraska's loss to TTUN was their third in a string of 6 bad losses to start the year. Since those 6 losses, Nebraska is 4-1, with the only loss coming at Ohio State. TTUN would not beat Nebraska 56-10 today. I can say that with 100% confidence. While I don't believe this is a true apples to apples comparison due to Nebraska's growth through the year, I can't ignore the domination by the wolverines in this one. Advantage: TTUN.

MICHIGAN STATE

Ohio State Result: Ohio State won 26-6. After a scoreless first quarter, Ohio State led by 4 at the half, led by 3 after three and won by 20. MSU had 274 total yards to Ohio State's 347. Ohio State was +2 in turnovers and +16 net yards in penalties.

TTUN Result: TTUN won 21-7. After a scoreless first quarter, TTUN led by 7 at the half, led by 7 after three quarters and won by 14. MSU had 94 total yards to TTUN's 395. TTUN was -1 in turnovers and -59 net yards in penalties. MSU's only TD drive was 7 yards long.

Conclusion/Advantage: TTUN would have completely dominated the Spartans in this one, but played a sloppy game of turnovers and penalties. TTUN did completely dominate the Spartans in this one. If you think all of the Spartans mistakes against the Buckeyes were self-inflicted, you probably think the wolverines have the advantage here. I disagree. The Spartans mistakes/turnovers were a direct result of the pressure applied by the Buckeyes defense and special teams. I can't ignore the wolverines dominance in East Lansing though. There's no clear winner here. Advantage: Even.

Next, I'll compare apples to oranges (same opponent, different venue). There were three of these in 2018 as well. The wolverines hosted Maryland and Penn State and traveled to Rutgers. The Buckeyes had the opposite, hosting Rutgers but traveling to Maryland and Happy Valley. The wolverines seem to have the easier path here.

RUTGERS

Ohio State Result: Ohio State won 52-3 in Columbus. Ohio State dominated start to finish. Rutgers had 134 total yards to Ohio State's 579. Ohio State was +2 in turnovers and -48 net yards in penalties (Ohio State had 120 yards in penalties).

TTUN Result: TTUN won 42-7 in Piscataway. TTUN was tied with the Scarlet Knights 7-7 after one quarter but blew it open in the second quarter to cruise to a comfortable win. Rutgers had 252 total yards to TTUN's 453. TTUN was +2 in turnovers and +10 net yards in penalties (TTUN only had 20 yards in penalties).

Conclusion/Advantage: Not a lot to say here. Two impressive wins over Rutgers, but I'd say that Ohio State was more impressive. Advantage: Ohio State.

MARYLAND

Ohio State Result: Ohio State won 52-51 in College Park. Ohio State never led in this game until the overtime. Maryland had 535 total yards to Ohio State's 688. Ohio State was -2 in turnovers and the penalty yards were actually pretty even. Allowing big plays on defense and turning the ball over nearly spelled doom for the Buckeyes.

TTUN Result: TTUN won 42-21 in Ann Arbor. TTUN trailed by 4 after the first quarter, but led by 10 at the half, led by 20 after three quarters and won by 21. Maryland had 220 total yards to TTUN's 465. TTUN was +55 net yards in penalties (Maryland had 107 yards in penalties).

Conclusion/Advantage: Ohio State played this game a week before "The Game" but with a loss already on the record couldn't afford to overlook anyone. Either the Buckeyes overlooked Maryland, or Maryland played beyond themselves, because this one was a lot tougher than it should have been.   Advantage: TTUN.

PENN STATE

Ohio State Result: Ohio State won 27-26 in a Happy Valley Whiteout (the second toughest environment in college football in my opinion, behind night games in LSU's Death Valley). Penn State was looking to avenge their 1 point loss in Columbus from 2017. Ohio State trailed by 3 after the first quarter, trailed by 6 at the half, led by 1 after three quarters, then fell behind by 12 with 8 minutes left in the game before storming back to win by 1. Penn State had 492 total yards to Ohio State's 389. Ohio State was -41 net yards in penalties (Ohio State had 105 yards in penalties).

TTUN Result: TTUN won 42-7 in Ann Arbor. TTUN jumped out to a 14-0 first half lead and never looked back. Penn State added their only points with under 2 minutes in the game. Penn State had 186 total yards to TTUN's 403. TTUN was +3 in turnovers (including a third quarter pick-6) and was -45 net yards in penalties.

Conclusion/Advantage: TTUN dominated the Nittany Lions in this matchup, and that's definitely impressive. Ohio State had to go into a whiteout against a team out for revenge and comeback in the 4th quarter. That's equally impressive in my book. Advantage: Even.

If you're keeping track at home, we're in a dead heat. In my opinion TTUN was more impressive against Maryland and Nebraska, Ohio State looked better against Rutgers and Indiana, and they both performed well against the other "big boys of the B1G East" Penn State and MSU. Personally, I think this game (like many others) comes down to penalties and turnovers. Ohio State must play disciplined football to win, despite overcoming their own sloppiness many times this year. TTUN won't be as forgiving as many of these other teams were. In the six games compared above, TTUN was +6 in turnover margin and only -22 in net penalty yards. In the same six games, Ohio State was -1 in turnover margin and  -120 in net penalty yards.

Go Bucks! Beat Blue!