Long time lurker, finally had to make an account just because I read all the constantly overly optimistic comments each Tuesday night about the committee rankings and I guess everyone just sees the rankings online and doesn't watch the show. Here are key things that have been made very clear from Jeff Long's statements which represent how the committee makes its ratings. Please note all this assumes everyone wins out in their usual fashion, everything's out the window if they don't (and that's the point, see my conclusion)
1. Head-to-head wins are the LEAST important, last tiebreaker factor. I assume this is because obviously very few teams in the mix play one another so they feel it's not a fair item to use. Whether you/I/we agree with that or not, that's why any thoughts to "why is TCU so far ahead of Baylor?!?!?!" and such need to just be set aside forever. They have said from day one they do not consider head-to-head wins as a primary factor, it's just how it is
2. There was a mega-trove of comments comparing us and analyzing our situation vs. TCU/Baylor and very little vs. the Pac-12 situation. I don't understand why. We are competing for the 4th spot with the Pac 12, not with the Big 12. If TCU wins out they are secure. TCU jumped into playoff position by beating a top-10 team in Kansas State. Jeff Long made it clear how much they value these statement wins. TCU went to #4, OSU only went to #8. It's true their remaining schedule isn't strong but that means TCU is that much more likely to continue to post 60+ point wins. If they win out they will end the season with one loss, by three points, on the road, to a top 10 (top 7? top 6?) team. If you really think that a committee that ranks them #4 right now will move them out of the playoff just because they spend their last weeks trouncing average teams and OSU beats mid to low top 25 teams and has its loss to a possibly non-bowl eligible VT at home in a game that wasn't even close, you're delusional.
3. On the topic of "top 25" - wins against the top 25 that the committee refers to means wins against people CURRENTLY in the top 25. It's great that the committee thinks Minnesota is #25 and not something less, but once we beat them they will never be ranked again. And even though we don't play them Wisconsin is likely to drop out if they lose again too. The conference by the end of the year is likely to be as week in the committee's rankings as it was when we most lamented it earlier this season.
So the situation is this, it still comes down to what happens on the field:
1. The SEC champion is in. Does not matter how this happens. If you think there's any scenario where the SEC champion is not in, I'll send you money for therapy
2. An unbeaten FSU is in
3. A TCU that wins out is in
4.This is the only available spot. If Oregon wins out it's theirs. If the Pac-12 champion is Arizona State then there's hope, this is what we should be debating in terms of "what will the committee do?"
Look forward to people's comments but if nothing else, please stop commenting each week on things that Jeff Long makes very clear about how the committee decides. Thanks.
