The temptation to copy and paste last week’s preview to this week’s is there, but not in a particularly strong form. Really, only the stakes are the same for this week’s matchup. And that is because this Wolverines team, Ohio State’s actual rival, is on a totally different trajectory from Johns Hopkins. A loss to this team would be catastrophic for an Ohio State squad that is currently projected to completely miss the NCAA tournament.
A win would essentially be a not-loss, mathematically keeping Ohio State alive but not particularly improving their standing on the national stage whatsoever. So, as we take a peek at the Maize and Blue, it is imperative to understand that no team has more pressure on it than Ohio State this week. Ohio State can’t get ahead on Friday, but sure as heck can fall behind. It’s a running theme with the Wolverines that they only get good at the end of the season after there’s nothing left to play for of significance. The only thing left this year is spite. And that may be the scariest bit of all when it comes to them.
Offense
The Wolverines have had some serious offensive issues over their 12 previous games. Averaging 10.92 goals per game this season, Ohio State’s rival has been all over the map. On the plus side, the Wolverines scored 13 goals against Rutgers a few weeks back, more than double Ohio State’s total.
On the negative side, they managed just 4 tallies against a Notre Dame team that Ohio State took to the wire before finally losing. The Wolverines aren’t necessarily bad. They’re just inconsistent and somewhat mediocre. Statistically, the shooting numbers are pedestrian. A shooting percentage of .288 is adequate. A shot on goal percentage of .598 is just this side of good. In a very, very similar twist of fate to that of the Scarlet and Gray, the Wolverines have had trouble getting the supporting cast going. Which leads us to personnel.
Nick Roode (#15) is the leading goalscorer, and has produced very Marinier-esque numbers this season. With 32 goals and just 5 assists, Roode is looked to for timely goals. Another attackman, Luke Shannehan (#29), has added 23 goals and 10 assists. These two are the primary weapons for this squad. And, outside of Alex Gatto (#25), the only weapons of note. Through 12 games, these are the only 3 play with at least 10 goals. That’s it.
Ohio State, by contrast, has a little more depth, but definitely not the top end talent. Shannehan would be tied the lead in goals were he in the Scarlet and Gray. Garrett Haas’ 17 assists lead both squads, and put him as the top scorer between the two teams. And that’s really what this matchup comes down to. The Wolverines have done enough the past two weeks to beat two ranked teams in the Big Ten.
After getting crushed 14-8 by Johns Hopkins in game one of conference play, then losing by the same 14-8 score to Maryland, the Maize and Blue rallied to put a hurting on Rutgers. Last week’s tight victory over Penn State has the Wolverines riding high at a time when the conference couldn’t be more open. Goals will be at a premium, and Ohio State is going to have its hands full all evening.
Schematically, as of late the Maize and Blue like to play a fairly traditional style of offensive lacrosse. The ball will start out wide, either high or low, with a dodge from a middie. As mentioned, Gatto is your most impactful middie on the dodge, scoring or assisting as an initiator almost twice per game. A decent mix of wide dodges down low and passing inside off the wing dodge helps the Maize and Blue score enough to be dangerous. But there’s not something that would absolutely blow your socks off from the scheme. They pass very well, and against Penn State did well to use quick movement to get step down shots.
Teams that are quick to slide will also find themselves exposed on the crease, as the Wolverines will throw the ball inside to Roode for quick stick goals. Ohio State has slid very, very late by design all year, so that should be an interesting wrinkle to look out for.
Defense
Though not quite as dominant as Ohio State, the Wolverines’ defense is still extremely stingy. Only Ohio State’s advantage at goalie prevents this team from putting up almost identical numbers. The Wolverines added Will Tominovich (#33) from Georgetown for this season, which has seriously bolstered their defense. Teams are shooting .273 against them, which is pretty decent as a defense.
The big knock, and challenge for Ohio State, is that the Maize and Blue are only allowing 54% of shots to get on cage. For an offensively challenged team like Ohio State, that is a big, big problem. Catastrophic. This game could easily end 4-3 with the way things are going.
In goal, Hunter Taylor (#52) has certainly not been good on the season. Taylor is saving fewer than 50% of his shots faced, and is allowing over 11 goals per game.
Obviously, the scheme has helped him tremendously as the defense has done an incredible job of not allowing shots to get through. For any other team, I’d point out this as a mismatch. With Ohio State, however, the two most active shooters are also some of the most saved shooters in the country. Which makes this matchup very dicey.
Can Ohio State get enough shots on target, and beat the goalie, to outscore their bitter rivals in an extremely tight game? We’ll find out soon enough.
Faceoff
The Wolverines are perfectly mediocre when it comes to the dot. An even split through twelve games is ludicrous. To go 150-300 is something I don’t know you will ever see again. It’s too round and perfect. But that’s how things sit as of now.
Against Penn State, the Maize and Blue were worked. Final tally was 4-20. Winning only 20% of the draws, but still winning the game, is some wizardry on the part of Kevin Conry. This might be the only time in the history of writing these previews that I say something really doesn’t matter. But I think that is the case here. Neither Ohio State nor the Wolverines is going to be particularly hurt or helped in this face, I reckon. I’d bet that 3-4 changes of possession occur each time there is a faceoff before anything close to a scoring play happens.
Special Teams
Much like their other statistics, the Maize and Blue show some offensive struggles and defensive successes in both special teams arenas. They are virtually identical, converting 29% of Man Up possessions while allowing teams to score 29% of the time on Man Down. Against Penn State, the Wolverines went 0-1, while Penn State went 1-2. These are fine. Neither is great. Neither is terrible. They’ re just...fine. Ohio State has started to slip on Man Down, giving up 32%. But remains a force on Man Up, converting 46% of the time. It’s truly going to come down to opportunities.
Overall
This game is certainly a toss up by every metric. Ohio State has the talent advantage from top to bottom. Caleb Fyock is playing like the best goalie in the country the past few weeks. On offense, the depth favors Ohio State. At faceoff, Mayfield and Oldman have won 58% of draws this season. The defense is still the best in the country, allowing only 7 goals per game. On paper, it’s a clear advantage to Ohio State.
On the field, the Wolverines have all the momentum. After scoring 13 goals against Rutgers (heights Ohio State hasn’t sniffed since February), they beat Penn State in State College while allowing just 8 goals. On 32 shots. Penn State’s utter collapse since beating Ohio State is another topic, but now is definitely not the time for this Wolverines team to be on the rise. It’s shades of 2023 and 2024.
For the Buckeyes, every single game since February 21 has been essentially a toss up. Ohio State has won a lot, but by the skin of their teeth. Not since February 28* have the Buckeyes scored at least 10 goals. Their largest margin of victory since beating High Point by 8 has been 2 goals. That was a 6-4 grinder against Denver. Ohio State’s best showing in conference play was probably against Maryland, where the Buckeyes took the Terps to the edge before losing a heartbreaker in overtime.
This game will either be a 30-goal rodeo or a 4-3 squeaker. I'd say there’s an 80% chance that it’s the latter. Neither defense allows shots to hit the net. The Maize and Blue are totally smothering much better offenses than Ohio State's. Ohio State has the best scoring defense in the country, bar none. I think it comes down to which goalie cracks first. I personally am going to ride with Caleb Fyock and say Ohio State survives another week.
The Wolverines indisputably have a better offense, but I don’t think it’s anything scarier than Johns Hopkins (who put up 14 on this same team and goalie) or Maryland (see Johns Hopkins). The Buckeyes struggle to score in ways that make me want to pull my eyes from their sockets. But the goalie and defense are granite. This ts a slugfest between two defenses that know they have to be borderline perfect.
Final prediction: Ohio State 5, Wolverines 4.
Game is tomorrow at 6 p.m. EDT, on BTN.
Go Buckeyes!
