With an extra long layoff, the temptation is there to be a little uncertain about the state of the team coming into a game with decent stakes like this one against a slightly surging Rutgers squad. Yes, I know I said they were struggling, but the Scarlet Knights just put up 21 on Bellarmine. That’s almost double what Ohio State did early this season. Personally, I think the break is just what Ohio State needed. The team is pretty beat up, needed to reset itself after some grueling games on offense, and needed a breath. They’ve gotten it. Now the real work begins.
Rutgers is coming into this game on a two-game winning streak with big point totals against horrible teams. They’ve scored 40 goals m the past 2 games after putting 19 on St. John’s, and 21 on Bellarmine. Those are also some of the poorer squads on their schedule that features marquee matchups against the likes of Long Island University and Stony Brook. Not the Seawolves' women’s team, either. For Ohio State, they’ll be coming up against a squad that hasn’t seen a defense like the Buckeyes’ all year long. Which is good, considering the Scarlet and Gray will have their hands full with one of the best players Rutgers has had in years. At least statistically.
Offense
Rutgers is a team that revolves around one player, by design. Colin Kurdyla (#88), leads Rutgers in goals with 23, assists with 22, and total points with 45. Kurdyla is the offense, the offense is Kurdyla. Greyson Vorgang (#77), has 19 goals and 6 assists in partnership with Kurdyla, but just doesn’t have the volume Kurdyla does. And, if we’re frank, Kurdyla is so productive because he is asked to do so much. Kurdyla only shoots .288 though he does get 63% of his shots on target. Collectively, the Scarlet Knights match Kurdyla’s efficiency, with a decent .288 shooting percentage. They’re good enough with getting 60% of shots on target.
Rutgers’ biggest advantage is that they get nearly 7 more shots per game than their opponents. At 44 shots per game, they’re just hurling everything at the new to hope something sticks. Against poor opponents like the last two, it’s going really well. Against Ohio State, I imagine it will be far less effective. The Buckeyes need to know exactly where Kurdyla is at all times, but should be able to make his day hard enough to make this a win. Especially opponents are generally saving over 50% of shots faced.
Defense
Rutgers is statistically pretty good defensively. Teams are struggling to get goals, shooting .249. Getting shots on target is. just as bad, with only 54% of shots hitting the 36 square feet of the goal. Both of which are not necessarily good metrics for the Buckeyes, as we saw against Denver a week ago. Rutgers allows teams to get shots, though, as their opponents average nearly 38 per game. Now, that sounds like this is a good defense. And I’m not going to say it is a bad one. But all of these stats have come against teams that are garbage. Both Army and Princeton had easy enough time. Stony Brook scored 11. There’s plenty of room for the Buckeyes to get themselves back on track.
In goal, Rutgers is still playing behind Cardin Stoller #92), who has come back down to earth this season. Currently sporting a respectable .532 save percentage, the goalie is averaging almost 10 goals against per game. That’s not great. And, given the level of competition, neither of those numbers is enough to scare you. Having said that, Ohio State has made more than a few goalies look like studs this season. I really would like to have them get a clinic on shot placement, but that’s neither here nor there.
Special Teams
Rutgers is above average in both areas when it comes to penalties. The Scarlet Knights are converting almost 42% on Man Up, and are at 23.5% on Man Down. Both of those numbers are very good, no matter how you slice it. And give at least enough pause to make certain that this will not be a total cakewalk game. Not that any Big Ten game ever 1s. With that said, a clean game is always more preferable than a penalty especially when Rutgers is playing well enough to be a problem on both Man Up and Man Down.
Faceoff
In another twist requiring serious discernment, Rutgers is slightly above .500 for the year on faceoff percentage. At 52.8%, the Scarlet Knights are essentially even. Ordinarily, I would say that looks pretty promising, considering the competition that Rutgers has faced. On the other side, Ohio State just has no consistency week to week in the faceoff game. The Buckeyes slaughtered Denver last week, despite essentially zero additional faceoffs. And that was after getting dominated by Notre Dame. If Ohio State is anywhere above 45%, this game should be much more than winnable.
Overall
To be clear, Ohio State should win this game. A single one-goal loss stands between Ohio State and consensus #1 status. That’s entirely the fault of the offense, and hopefully this game will help them get back on track. Kurdyla is a good player, who could really challenge the Buckeyes when he has the ball in his stick. At this point, however, Ohio State is just getting better and better on defense. Losing Bobby van Buren was a real blow, they’ve recovered magnificently, and the SSDM's are phenomenal right now. Phenomenal, and young. Blake Eiland and Dillon Magee are upperclassmen. There ‘s plenty be excited about on defense.
This game could get up and down, but I don’t see Rutgers playing that well offensively. There’s too little to show statistically for a team that has struggled when running up against talented squads. Under .300 shooting is a red flag, as is the SOG percentage. It’s going to be a race to double digits, and I think the Buckeyes win.
Final prediction: Ohio State 14, Rutgers 9.
Game is on B1G+ at 1 p.m. EDT.
Go Buckeyes!
