Everything remains on the table for Ohio State this season. A chance for vengeance, a Big Ten Tournament title, and a very high national seed are all at stake tomorrow as the Buckeyes faceoff against their long-time proverbial millstone, Maryland. Much like the Rutgers matchup, we’ve been over the personnel in all 4 phases previously, so I’m going to limit this to keys to the game again. Time after time, we’ve seen Ohio State come very close to upsetting Maryland when it matters most, only to come up short. This latest matchup, in the grand scheme, is consequential only for seeding purposes. Yes, the bragging rights would be exquisite. But Ohio State isn’t fighting for its life here.

The Buckeyes are locks for the national tournament. Losing to Utah in game one certainly isn’t helping Ohio State here. But at the same time, only Maryland has beaten the Buckeyes since February. And the Terps are probably #2 in the country, with a win. I think the committee will look favorably on that. With a win, there’s no way any team is higher than Ohio State, Cornell excluded. In my mind, at least. At any rate, it’s all speculation until the final whistle blows. Let’s see what will decide the game.

Logan’s Run

Logan McNaney, this year’s carrier of the storied #1 tradition, is essentially unbeatable when the stakes are at their highest. Against Penn State, McNaney recorded 10 saves, but that was in large part the result of Maryland’s defensive effort.

The Nittany Lions only recorded 18 shots on goal, despite 44 attempts. McNaney stands tall in net even when there’s not much on the line. As a playoff goalie, he’s regularly posted 20+ saves. Ohio State is going to have to improve upon its paltry 8 goals from the regular season loss to have a shot at the upset. And yes, I’m aware that Ohio State is actually the #1 seed. That 13-8 score set the tone.

It’s up to the Buckeyes to show the world something. Caleb Fyock will have essentially zero room for error tomorrow, as the Buckeyes will need to see him keep the Terps under 10 goals if they want to win another title. Defensive Mistakes

Ohio State was uncharacteristically porous against the Terrapins the last time out, allowing 13 goals to a team that was held well under 10 by both Rutgers and the Team Up North. What else is there to say? The Buckeyes have a lot more talent on defense than either of those teams. So much so that both the Scarlet Knights and Wolverines are already onto fall ball. To allow 7 more goals than Rutgers, and 3 more than the Wolverines did, is inexcusable.

If both teams play to their potential, this will be a cagey affair that has fewer than 14 goals combined. If Ohio State has another defensive hiccup, then we’ll just see a night game repeat of the earlier matchup. There’s no reason for that to happen. But it could.

Who’s Going To Score The Goals?

This is almost cheating, after the McNaney blurb, but overall, Maryland is easily the most complete defensive team in the country. A fitting comparison is the first Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team. The Terps are virtually untouchable on defense. They’ve held opponents under 10 goals in 11 of their 13 contests. The other 2 games, they allowed 10 goals on the dot. Ohio State is going to have to have its best offensive game of the season to pull this one out. They’ re capable of it.

But the midfielders are going to need to get their hands a lot more than they had previously. And, to be blunt, Jack McKenna needs to be allowed to return to his off-ball roots and provide a big cannon to offset the attention Alex Marinier gets. Ohio State has a ton of success throwing skip passes to shooters. McKenna came to Ohio State after shooting the lights out as a spot up shooter.

Steal the old Kirwan at Virginia sets, use Garrett Haas and Ed Shean behind the net, and have Marinier pair up with McKenna near the restraining line to let the cannons loose. Maryland is too good defensively to try to dodge with McKenna.

Faceoffs

Ohio State and Maryland come into this game with nothing but questions at the faceoff position. Jack Oldman has struggled in Big Ten play, even against teams that don’t have a dominant faceoff man. Maryland was utterly skunked against Penn State, going 4 of 18 in their win against the Nittany Lions.

I’m not going to look it up, but that has to be close to the worst faceoff percentage in a win in Big Ten history. If not college lacrosse. There’s nothing for me to analyze about this, because anything I say will be proven utterly wrong immediately. The team that can scrounge faceoff wins will be in the best position to win. Maryland was so poor at faceoffs that their offense only managed to get to 24 shots.

The Terps scored 10 goals, so obviously there’s that. But 24 shots won’t win either of these teams a game tomorrow. If Ohio State can get to 44 shots, I would absolutely call it a Buckeye win. But that would require a similar faceoff split.

This phase of the game will be absolutely massive. Hopefully Ohio State can figure out something in time for tomorrow’s matchup.

Overall

This Maryland team leans on its defense for just about everything. The Terps were utterly dominated in every facet of the game against Penn State, except SOG percentage and shooting percentage. Obviously, that led to a Maryland win. But for long, long stretches, Maryland was on the ropes. Ohio State, since the inception of Big Ten Lacrosse, have struggled to do anything against Maryland.

The Terrapins are a juggernaut. Especially against the Buckeyes. The team is going to be buzzing to take on this new challenge, but this is going to be a war from the opening draw.

Can Ohio State get through it? Can we look past recent history and be confident heading into a national tournament? In a word, no.

The offense isn’t dynamic or creative enough, the offensive personnel is not elite, and this Maryland defense is amongst the best they’ve had in a long time. It’s a recipe for disappointment, and I don’t think the Buckeyes have enough on offense to take advantage of Maryland’s problems.

Final prediction: Maryland 11, Ohio State 7.

Hope I’m wrong, genuinely. But I need to see it before the Buckeyes get that benefit of the doubt.

Go Bucks!

Game is Saturday at 8 p.m. EDT, on BTN.