A lot of Big Ten fans and media have been asking if the conference can get four teams in the playoff, but if you look at the remaining schedules, it may be more likely they only get two than four!

How Good is Oregon?

First off, I've not been overly impressed by Oregon this season. I suspect a lot of the computer models that have Oregon at roughly 70% to make the playoff field treat this 2025 Oregon squad as an elite team because it's historically an elite program. But is this year's version truly elite? I can easily see them losing two more games.

Here are my win probability assumptions for Oregon's remaining schedule:

at Iowa (0.55)
vs Minnesota (0.96)
vs USC (0.76)
at Washington (0.60)

Going to Iowa City will be no picnic, and the trip to Washington is both a rivalry game and a tough road environment. Oregon likely gets in with two losses, but even then their resume will be thin with Penn State having a down year. Analyst Josh Pate gives Oregon credit for "killing" Penn State, but I'm not sure the committee will view that win as favorably.

Running the Numbers (thanks, AI!)

Once you assume that Oregon is pretty vulnerable, the Big Ten's chances of getting three teams become dicey. I asked AI to run 100 model scenarios for the eight teams I still think are in playoff contention: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, USC, Nebraska, and Washington.

Here are the projected average final regular season records:

Ohio State: 11.6-0.4
Indiana: 11.4-0.6
Oregon: 9.9-2.1
Washington: 8.6-3.4
Michigan: 8.5-3.5
Iowa: 8.4-3.6
USC: 7.8-4.2
Nebraska: 7.8-4.2

Playoff Scenarios

Ohio State and Indiana are virtual locks, and they'll likely meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

Obviously, if another team besides Indiana or Ohio State sneaks into the Big Ten Championship Game, that would likely give the conference a third playoff team. The playoff committee essentially created a rule last year that teams won't be "penalized" for losing a conference championship game.

Otherwise, it looks like Oregon will either need to elevate their level of play to secure a spot, or another team will need to get hot down the stretch. Especially since it's looking like ND will finish with two losses and the ACC has a good chance of getting two teams in playoff. 

The bottom line: Don't be surprised if only Ohio State and Indiana from the Big Ten make the field.