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"Recruiting Rankings Don't Matter" 2.0

+25 HS
GunnerBuck's picture
by GunnerBuck
December 26, 2018 at 1:29am
44 Comments

Since there was legit interest in this topic based on the 2018 results, I went ahead and did a 5 year break down. From 2014 to 2018. Here is what I found. Sorry for the extremely long post. If you have no interest in seeing the actual numbers and how they break down just scroll to the bottom of the post, you'll see a break down of them there. 

2014 NFL Draft
Pick Name Star/Rank
1 J. Clowney  5*/1
2 G. Robinson 4*/124
3 B. Bortles 3*/814
4 S. Watkins 5*/20
5 K. Mack 2*/2252
6 J. Matthews 4*/38
7 M. Evans 3*733
8 J. Gilbert 4*/251
9 A. Barr 4*/61
10 E. Ebron 3*/448
11 T. Lewan 4*/160
12 O. Beckham Jr 4*/135
13 A. Donald 3*/353
14 K. Fuller 3*/1072
15 R. Shazier 4*/106
16 Z. Martin 4*/142
17 CJ Mosley 4*/78
18 C. Pryor 3*/560
19 J. James 5*/12
20 B. Cooks 3*/371
21 H. Clinton-Dix 5*/7
22 J. Manziel 3*/374
23 D. Ford 3*/436
24 D. Dennard 3*/1540
25 J. Verett 3*/47(JUCO)
26 M. Smith 3*/593
27 D. Bucannon 3*/526
28 K. Benjamin 4*/126
29 D. Easley 5*/4
30 J. Ward NA
31 B. Roby 3*/650
32 T. Bridgewater 4*/95
Number of Picks by Conference and School
    2014            SEC
School Number of Picks
SOUTH cAR 1
lsu 1
uf 1
TENNESSEE 1
ALABAMA 2
AUBURN 2
TEXAS a&m 3
TOTAL 11
2014 PAC 12
uclA 1
OREGON ST 1
WASH ST 1
TOTAL  3
2014 BIG 12
OKLA ST 1
TCU 1
TOTAL  2
2014 BIG TEN
MICHIGAN  1
MICHIGAN ST 1
THE OHIO ST 2
TOTAL 4
2014 ACC
cLEMSON 1
nORTH CAR 1
pITT 1
vt 1
fsu 1
TOTAL 5
2014 OTHERS TO MENTION
NOTRE DAME 1
UCF 1
LVILLE 3

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2015 NFL Draft
PICK NAME STAR/RANK
1 J. WINSTON  5*/16
2 M. MARIOTA 3*/491
3 D. FOWLER 5*/36
4 A. COOPER 4*/45
5 B. SCHERFF 3*/577
6 L. WILLIAMS 4*/51
7 K. WHITE 3*/135 (JUCO)
8 V. BEASLEY 3*/722
9 E. FLOWERS 4*/158
10 T. GURLEY 4*/73
11 T. WAYNES 3*/1174
12 D. SHELTON 3*/319
13 A.PEAT 5*/31
14 D. PARKER 3*/302
15 M. GORDON 4*/251
16 K. JOHNSON 3*/1579
17 A. ARMSTEAD 5*/14
18 M. PETERS 3*/489
19 C. ERVING 3*/851
20 N. AGHOLOR 5*/30
21 C. OGBUEHI 4*/125
22 B. DUPREE 3*/774
23 S. RAY 3*/326
24 DJ HUMPRIES 5*/3
25 S. THOMPSON 5*/4
26 B. PERRIMAN 2*/1724
27 B. JONES 3*/1858
28 L. TOMLINSON 3*/625
29 P. DORSETT 3*/383
30 D. RANDALL NA
31 S. ANTHONY 5*/21
32 M. BROWN 5*/9
Number of Picks by Conference and School
2015 SEC
MIZZU 1
tEXAS A&M  1
GEORGIA 1
KENTUCKY 1
ALABAMA  1
UF 2
TOTAL 6
2015 PAC12
ARIZONA ST 1
STANFORD 1
OREGON 2
USC 2
WASHINGTON 3
TOTAL 9
2015 BIG 12
WVU 1
TEXAS 1
TOTAL 2
2015 BIG TEN
IOWA 1
MSU 1
WISCONSIN 1
TOTAL  3
2015 ACC
DUKE 1
WAKE 1
LVILLE 1
MIAMI 2
CLEMSON 2
FSU 2
TOTAL 9
2015 OTHERS TO MENTION
UCF 1
TOTAL  1

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2016 NFL DRAFT
PICK NAME STAR/RANK
1 J. GOFF 4*/213
2 C. WENTZ NA
3 J. BOSA 4*/37
4 E. ELLIOT 4*/69
5 J. RAMSEY 5*/16
6 R. STANLEY 4*/125
7 D. BUCKNER 4*/224
8 J. CONKLIN NA
9 L. FLOYD 4*/140
10 E. APPLE 4*/52
11 V. HARGREAVES 5*/3
12 S. RANKINS 3*/798
13 L. TUNSIL 5*/4
14 K. JOSEPH 3*/527
15 C. COLEMAN 4*/154
16 T. DECKER 4*/163
17 K. NEAL 4*/110
18 R. KELLY 4*/236
19 S. LAWSON 4*/346
20 D. LEE 3*/636
21 W. FULLER 4*/280
22 J. DOCTSON 3*/1467
23 L. TREADWELL 5*/14
24 W. JACKSON 2*/2235
25 A. BURNS 4*/98
26 P. LYNCH 2*/1894
27 K. CLARK 4*/275
28 J. GARNETT 4*/38
  DEFLATE GATE NA
29 R. NKEMDICHE 5*/1
30 V. BUTLER 2*/1835
31 G. IFEDI 4*/260
Number of Picks by Conference and School
2016 SEC
ALABAMA 1
TEXAS A&M 1
GEORGIA 1
FLORIDA 2
OL MISS 3
TOTAL 8
2016  PAC 12
CAL 1
OREGON 1
UCLA 1
STANFORD 1
TOTAL 4
2016 BIG 12
WVU 1
BAYLOR 1
TCU 1
TOTAL 3
2016 BIG TEN
MICHIGAN ST 1
THE OHIO ST 5
TOTAL 6
2016 ACC
FLORIDA ST 1
LVILLE 1
CLEMSON 1
MIAMI 1
TOTAL 4

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2017 NFL Draft
PICK NAME STAR/RANK
1 M. GARRETT 5*/2
2 M. TRUBISKY 4*/206
3 S. THOMAS 5*/26
4 L. FOURNETTE 5*/1
5 C. DAVIS 2*/2410
6 J. ADAMS 5*/32
7 M. WILLIAMS 4*/233
8 C. MCCAFFREY 4*/91
9 J. ROSS 4*/282
10 P. MAHOMES 3*/398
11 M. LATTIMORE 4*/55
12 D. WATSON 4*/42
13 H. REDDICK NA
14 D. BARNETT 4*/209
15 M. HOOKER 3*/360
16 M. HUMPHREY 5*/11
17 J. ALLEN 5*/11
18 A. JACKSON 5*/7
19 OJ HOWARD 5*/19
20 G. BOLLES 4*/3(JUCO)
21 J. DAVIS 3*/496
22 C. HARRIS 2*/2566
23 E. ENGRAM 3*/920
24 G. CONLEY 4*/153
25 J. PEPPERS 5*/3
26 T. MCKINLEY 3*/518
27 T. WHITE 4*/46
28 T. CHARLTON 4*/131
29 D. NJOKU 3*/851
30 TJ WATT 3*/942
31 R. FOSTER 5*/6
32 R. RAMCZYK NA
Number of Picks by Conference and School
2017 SEC
OL MISS 1
MIZZU 1
FLORIDA 1
TENN 1
TEXAS a&M 1
LSU 3
ALABAMA 4
TOTAL 12
2017 PAC
UCLA 1
UTAH 1
USC 1
WASHINGTON 1
STANFORD 2
TOTAL 6
2017 BIG 12
TEXAS TECH 1
TOTAL 1
2017 BIG TEN
WISCONSIN 2
MICHIGAN 2
THE OHIO ST 3
TOTAL 7
2017  ACC
NORTH CAR 1
MIAMI 1
CLEMSON 2
TOTAL 4

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2018 NFL Draft
PICK NAME STAR/RANK
1 B. MAYFIELD 3*/1029
2 S. BARKLEY 4*/119
3 S. DARNOLD 4*/148
4 D. WARD 4*/270
5 B. CHUBB 3*/374
6 Q. NELSON 4*/61
7 J. ALLEN 3*/199 (JUCO)
8 R. SMITH 4*/48
9 M. MCGLINCHY 4*/172
10 J. ROSEN 5*/11
11 M. FITZPATRICK 5*/30
12 V. VEA 3*/587
13 D. PAYNE 5*/29
14 M. DAVENPORT 2*/2613
15 K. MILLER 3*/371
16 T. EDMUNDS 3*/441
17 D. JAMES 5*/5
18 J. ALEXANDER 3*/941
19 L. VANDER ESCH NA 
20 F. RAGNOW 4*/324
21 B. PRICE 4*/211
22 R. EVANS 5*/14
23 I. WYNN 4*/110
24 DJ MOORE 3*/354
25 H. HURST NA(BASEBALL)
26 C. RIDLEY 5*/12
27 R. PENNY 3*/944
28 T. EDMUNDS 3*/1109
29 T. BRYAN 3*/533
30 M. HUGHES 3*/421
31 S. MICHEL 5*/20
32 L. JACKSON 3*/409
Number of Picks by Conference and School
2018 SEC
FLORIDA 1
SOUTH CAR 1
ARKANSAS 1
GEORGIA 3
ALABAMA 4
TOTAL 10
2018 PAC12
WASHINGTON 1
USC 1
UCLA 2
TOTAL 4
2018  BIG 12
OKLAHOMA 1
TOTAL 1
2018 BIG TEN
MARYLAND 1
PENN ST 1
OHIO ST 2
TOTAL 4
2018 ACC
NC STATE 1
FLORIDA ST 1
LVILLE 2
VT 2
TOTAL 4

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2019 NFL DRAFT
PICK  NAME STAR/RANK
1 Kylar Murray 5/34
2 Nick Bosa 5/8
3 Q. Willaims 4/155
4 C. Ferrell 4/115
5 D. White 4/135
6 D. Jones 2/NA
7 Josh Allen 2/2121
8 TJ Hockinson 3/1468
9 Ed Oliver 5/6
10 D. Bush 4/312
11 Jonah Williams 5/17
12 Rashan Gary 5/1
13 C. Wilkins 5/24
14 C. Lindstrom 3/1037
15 D. Haskins 4/91
16 B. Burns 4/46
17 D. Lawrence 5/2
18 G Bradbury 3/1749
19 J. Simmons 5/18
20 N. Fant 3/536
21 D Savage 3/1055
22 A. Dillard 3/1505
23 T. Howard NA
24 J Jacobs 3/469
25 M Brown 4/13 (JUCO)
26 M. Sweat 3/52 (JUCO)
27 J. Abram 3/16 (JUCO)
28 J. Tillery 4/157
29 LJ Collier 3/1068
30 D. Baker 3/657
31 K. McGary 4/285
32 N. Harry 4/53

 

NUMBER OF PICKS BY CONFERENCE AND SCHOOL
2019 SEC
BAMA 3
LSU 1
KENTUCKY 1
MISS ST 3
UGA 1
TOTAL 9
2019 PAC12
WASHINGTON 1
WASH ST 1
AZ STATE 1
TOTAL 3

 

2019 BIG 12
OKLAHOMA 2
TCU 1
TOTAL  3

 

2019 B1G
OHIO ST 2
IOWA 2
MICHIGAN 2
MARYLAND 1
TOTAL 7

 

2019 ACC
CLEMSON 3
DUKE 1
BOSTON COL 1
FSU 1
NC STATE 1
TOTAL 7
2019 OTHERS TO MENTION
ND 1
TOTAL 1
TOTAL NUMBER OF EACH RATING TAKEN
5 36 22.5%
4 54 33.75%
3 70 43.75%

As you can see from the total number of each rating taken and the percentages of the total number. Despite the 5 stars only making up around 1.7% of the talent pool (based on 1500 3 star and below each year and 340 4 stars in each year) they make up 22.5% of the first round draft picks being taken. Also, with that being said if you include the 4 and 5 stars together (roughly the top 400 players in each class), they make up over half (56.25%) of the first round picks talent from 2014-2018.  

While there are a large amount of 3 star and below players taken, that pool of players is a lot larger than the 4 and 5 stars combined. In fact in this time period only 70 of 7500 (it's actually much higher but I stopped looking at the rankings when the 2 stars started) 3 stars became 1st round draft picks in the last 5 years, while 36/160 5 stars and 54/1700 4 stars have.

So the theory of "recruit(ing) rankings don't matter" as we all knew, is bullshit. 

Also I was asked to break it down by schools which I have done above for each draft year but this post is already too long and adding more analysis of those stats will just make it longer. 

EDIT: I have added the 2019 first round as well. Which confirms and makes my case even stronger. Of the 32 picks 8 were 5 stars, 10 were 4 stars and the rest were 3 stars or below. Essentially continuing the trend being set by the last 5 years. 

TOTAL TAKEN AS OF 2019
5 44 22.9%
4 65 33.3%
3 84 43.75%

 

 

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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