For the 4th time, the BCS would have selected the exact same matchups as the CFP Committee, had the BCS merely been expanded to 4 teams. Thanks to Wes Colley, as always, for crunching the numbers.
http://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2017/bcsLike/bcsLike14.html
| Rank | Team | BCS Average | AP | Coaches | Computer | CFP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson | 0.98590 | 0.98754 (1) | 0.99106 (1) | 0.98 (1) | 1 |
| 2 | Georgia | 0.93749 | 0.92393 (3) | 0.92852 (3) | 0.96 (2) | 3 |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 0.93175 | 0.96656 (2) | 0.95869 (2) | 0.87 (3) | 2 |
| 4 | Alabama | 0.84913 | 0.85705 (4) | 0.86033 (4) | 0.83 (5) | 4 |
| 5 | Ohio State | 0.84787 | 0.85246 (5) | 0.85115 (5) | 0.84 (4) | 5 |
| 6 | Wisconsin | 0.78131 | 0.76197 (6) | 0.76197 (6) | 0.82 (6) | 6 |
| 7 | USC | 0.70984 | 0.72197 (8) | 0.74754 (7) | 0.66 (10) | 8 |
| 8 | Auburn | 0.70596 | 0.73639 (7) | 0.71148 (8) | 0.67 (8) | 7 |
| 9 | UCF | 0.69705 | 0.64459 (10) | 0.64656 (10) | 0.80 (7) | 12 |
| 10 | Penn State | 0.66355 | 0.66098 (9) | 0.65967 (9) | 0.67 (8) | 9 |
Observations:
Ohio State and Alabama are incredibly close. Just how close? If even 3 coaches or AP voters out of 122 total (I think?) flipped Ohio State and Alabama on their ballots, Ohio State would get the 4th spot. That being said, is the committee really just a front for the BCS to still be used? Makes you wonder.
Georgia/Oklahoma is a similar situation, but Georgia seems to be loved by the computers despite voters and the committee liking Oklahoma. I'd imagine there'd be a good deal of outrage in the 2 team system had Georgia been selected over the Sooners.
I'd also posit that this is ample evidence that 4 is better than two, but that more than 4 is really too many. I don't think a lot of people think that either OSU or Alabama deserve to be included based on their resumes this year, but someone had to go. The computers actually favor OSU (!!) but voters and the committee didn't go that way. If we expanded to 8 you'd see a 3 loss Auburn in the playoff and does anyone really want that? I sure don't.
