After a one-week hiatus given the peculiarities of the ACC Labor Day kickoff, in which Ohio State participated, the Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Michigan State Nabs Some No. 1 Votes
Ohio State's struggle to put Hawaii to bed was fortunately overshadowed by games in Little Rock and Auburn (more on those later). While it does not appear AP voters punished the Buckeyes in their ballots for that sleepwalk of a game, Ohio State did lose two no. 1 votes to Michigan State in this week's poll. Those no. 1 votes came from Doug Lesmerises (Plain Dealer) and Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News) and were each followed by Ohio State at no. 2.
Put another way, Michigan State may have been the big winner in this week's polls. Michigan State gained 156 points in the polls from last week. Some of the gains by voter were substantial. Chadd Cripe (Idaho Statesman), who I always thought was skeptical of Big Ten teams just in looking at his past ballots, leapfrogged them from no. 9 to no. 2 this week. Josh Kendall (The State [Columbia, SC]), another Big Ten skeptic, moved Michigan State from no. 12 to no. 3. Doug Lesmerises constitutes the biggest swing. His 10-vote last week for Michigan State was second lowest for the Spartans in last week's poll. Now he is one of their two no. 1 votes.
While Michigan State gained two no. 1 votes and 156 points overall from last week, it climbed just one spot in the overall poll. Put another way, not everyone was as impressed by the win over Oregon. Eric Avidon (MetroWest Daily News) and Gary Horowitz (Statesman Journal) only moved Michigan State from no. 5 to no. 4. Jeff Seidel (Detroit Free Press) did not move the Spartans at all from his no. 5 spot last week. Michigan State appears at no. 6 on five different ballots, which partly explains why Michigan State still trails Alabama and Texas Christian behind Ohio State.
USC Moving Up Too
I've been watching the Trojans over the past two weeks. This strikes me as the kind of year in which USC is possibly, maybe, likely "back", and for real this time.
The AP voter data suggests there are some people like me who are rather bullish on the USC. Garland Gillen (Fox 8, New Orleans) has USC at no. 2 in his ballot behind Ohio State. The Trojans also have two no. 3 votes from Mitch Vingle (Charleston Gazette-Mail) and Tom D'angelo (Palm Beach Post). Nathan Deen (Savannah Morning News), Tim Griffin (San Antonio Express-News), and Brett McMurphy (ESPN) have USC at no. 4, constituting the bulk of AP voters who nominally have USC as a playoff participant right now. All told, USC's modal vote was no. 6 with a frequency rate of 29%.
Still others are not convinced. USC has a handful no. 11 votes and no. 12 votes, and a no. 13 vote from Sam Werner (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). It even appears as low as no. 15 in ballots cast by Ed Johnson (Albuquerque Journal) and Scott Wolf (Los Angeles Daily News).
All told, USC is the highest-ranked team in the Pac-12. I think that's about right. I expect USC will handle Arizona State (which was tied with Cal Poly in the fourth quarter) and Washington at home. The contest at Notre Dame the week thereafter looms large for USC's playoff hopes.
The Big Losers: Auburn and Arkansas
I do not think I need to reiterate that Arkansas and Auburn constitute the biggest losers in this week's poll. Auburn's overtime victory against FCS Jacksonville State plummeted it from no. 6 last week to no. 18 this week, a drop of 647 points. Arkansas, which lost at home to Toledo, slid from no. 18 to the realm of the unranked. It went from 480 points to just six in this week's poll.
| Voter | Week 2 Vote | Week 3 Vote |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Axe | 10 | 10 |
| Doug Doughty | 10 | NR |
| Ed Daigneault | 3 | NR |
| Gary Smits | 14 | 23 |
| Ken Medlin | 4 | 10 |
| Laura Keeley | 3 | NR |
| Pete DiPrimio | 7 | NR |
| Tim Griffin | 8 | 12 |
In the interest of full disclosure, I don't think Auburn was necessarily "exposed" because of the Jacksonville State game (though I did find the struggle hilarious). Some AP voters basically panicked. Consider the table to the right, which shows a snapshot of select voter reactions from last week to this week for Auburn.
The table is not supposed to be representative, per se, but only select on vote changes I found interesting. Ed Daigneault (Republican-American [Waterbury, CT]) and Laura Keeley (Raleigh News & Observer) dumped Auburn like junk stock. Brent Axe (ESPN Radio Syracuse) is holding firm on the Tigers.
A similar table for Arkansas will not be as interesting since the Razorbacks appeared on just two ballots this week. Matt Charboneau (Detroit News) has Arkansas at 25. Gary Smits (Florida Times-Union) has Arkansas at no. 21.
To answer your next question, neither Charboneau or Smits have Toledo ranked anywhere on their respective ballots. However, Toledo appears on ten AP ballots this week with a high of no. 20 (Scott Wolf).
| Voter | Week 2 Vote |
|---|---|
| Sam McKewon | 7 |
| Joey Knight | 11 |
| Gary Smits | 11 |
| Jon Shinn | 12 |
| John Adams | 13 |
| Ross Dellenger | 13 |
Instead, let's look at the highest rankings for Arkansas in last week's AP ballots after Arkansas crushed UTEP to open the season. Cue the horn from The Price is Right.
Other Observations
- I mention USC as the source of optimism in the Pac-12 but some voters are keen on UCLA as well. Chadd Cripe has UCLA at no. 4. The Bruins have a handful of no. 5 votes as well.
- LSU gained 134 points in this week's poll but climbed just one spot. Mitch Vingle has LSU at no. 5. It also appears at no. 7 on a few ballots. Still, I think voters are a bit cautious with LSU so far.
- BYU's highest spot on any ballot was no. 14. Naturally, that came on Jon Wilner's ballot.
- Nathan Deen has Baylor at no. 14. He also has Virginia Tech at no. 24. Thus, Virginia Tech's two points received in this week's poll means Ohio State has a signature win in this young season over a team also receiving votes. I'll take it.
- Eric Hansen (South Bend Tribune) has Ole Miss at no. 4 on his ballot in anticipation of Saturday's trip to Tuscaloosa.
- Temple is eleven points from being ranked. No individual-level vote was higher than 22 (Ed Daigneault), so Temple is appearing near the bottom of several ballots rather than conspicuously high on any particular ballot.
