There seems to be a consensus that Robinson and Miller (in that order) will be the top two QBs in the B10 next season. My question for the board is who you think will have the better numbers going into The Game next year.
For those who don't feel like looking up numbers, here are last season's stats: DR had more yards rushing (1349 to 951) a lot more yards passing (2173 to 1159) and more TDs (20 to 13). The two had similar completion percentages (DR 55 and Miller 54), and DR had a lot more interceptions (15 to 4).
Denard will have bigger numbers again going into The Game.
Denard will likely have better rushing stats while I expect Miller to have better passing stats.
Denard will still be the more dangerous of the two this season IMO, but the sky is the limit for Braxton his junior and senior years when he is fully comfortable with the new offense.
Michigan plays a tougher schedule this year compared to last and DR kind of cheated the odds in terms of injury, given his size versus the way he plays, numbers of carries, etc. Plus, I could see DR asking to run the ball a few less times per game.
Consequently, I'd expect DR's numbers to be down in several categories, although he'll probably also throw fewer INTs.
Miller, on the other hand, projects to see big improvement in several caterories - especially passing yds and passing TDs.
Going into The Game, then, I expect Miller to have better overall "quality" numbers (completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, QB rating, wins) compared to DR, although DR will probably still be a little ahead on quantity (rush yds, all-purpose yds).
After the season, DR will move on to being a return specialist in the NFL, while Miller continues to refine his skills in the hope of becoming an NFL starting QB.
Miller will be a better passer by the time of the game... but denard has and will be one of the most explosive players in college football
mark may wins douchebag of the year... again
There is no way that Braxton Miller has games in which he has 4 or 8 passing attempts this coming season. I would expect at least 16-18 attempts per game on average.
vacuuming sucks
Here are some more numbers to consider: Miller had only 157 pass attempts all last season. In Tebow's sophomore season under Urban, he had 350 pass attempts. I don't necessarily expect Miller to match Tebow's production, but it should be clear that Miller will have a lot more chances to do something with the ball next season. Let's say Miller falls smewhere in the middle of his last season and Tebow's amazing sophomore season. Give him 250 PAs. Also, I will assume a slight improvement in completion percentage from 54 to 60 (Tebow completed 65% his sophomore season). That would potentially give Braxton 150 completions next year whereas Robinson completed 142 last season, and at least a good chance of leading Robinson in passing stats next year.
my predictions for them
Miller
2.750 passing yards
750 rushing yards
Robinson
3.100 passing yards
600 rushing yards
i think robinson rushes less this year, hes too valuble to get injured
@AHH SATURDAY - Miller will definitely see a significant improvement in his completion % simply because we will actually have a sophisticated quick (short) passing game this year. I expect him to be somewhere around 60% and potentially higher...
@ Heir,
You're projecting DR to have nearly 1000 more passing yards and 700 less rushing yards than last season. We've already seen what he could do at michigan. Why predict such a radical change for his senior season?
I would be shocked if Robinson has fewer rushing yards than Miller. He is the team's leading rusher the past 2 seasons for a reason. He will default to running for good reason more often than Miller.
vacuuming sucks
Miller = was a true freshman...Robinson = has been at UM for a little over a decade and was a heisman 'contender' for the last two years up until week 5... I fully expect Miller to be miles better than Robinson every has been and will be at UM, and I think it starts this season both in how he looks on the field and the statistics he puts up
I think that Denards numbers will be bigger in quantity (more yards rushing maybe even passing) but not quality (I expect Braxton to have fewer ints, more td passes & runs). Maybe I'm being a homer but I think Braxton has some very serious potential & will contend for the Heisman junior & senior years.
The world is full of kings & queens who'll blind your eyes & steal your dreams - it's heaven & hell - Ronnie James Dio.
i think the diffrence in the offense they play in will give braxton more rushing yds. as someone said earlier they are gunna have to protect denard because they cant have him getting hurt.
Well i like college and i like football...and im gunna keep doin em both cause they make me feel good!!!
@Ahhh Saturday
i think the prediction comes from two things: the emergence of fitz toussaint as a reliable option out of the backfield, and denard getting more comfortable in the system. will he ever be a great passing qb? no. but i would expect his td/int ratio to improve noticeably, his completion percentage to go back up around 60, him to take less time with his reads.
michigan fans used lack of familiarity with the system as an excuse, but it's not like it doesn't hold any weight. good running QB's are always more dangerous through the air because they present the threat of running at any instant. add to that more familiarity with the system, and missing less open reads and making fewer stupid decisions seems likely.
i think robinson will have similar passing numbers to miller (maybe slightly higher), and better rushing stats. would not be surprised if he broke pat white's QB rushing record this year. to be pompous and say that miller looks infinitely better than one of the most electric (although not accurate) QB's in college football history seems a bit much. miller will be a very special player in his own right because he is so athletic and fits the system so well. it would have been interesting to see how robinson did if he stuck with the spread for his last 2 years and got a competent defense/kicking game to help him out
They couldn't afford to have Robinson hurt his entire career. Didn't stop him from running wild.
vacuuming sucks
^^true. i think the big difference in production will come from the systems they play in. denard played his sophomore year at a decent level (despite INT numbers). it was probably the best rushing season in history for a QB, and he had 2500 passing yards and a 62.5% completion rate. one of the big reasons for his INT numbers was him trying to create a play from nothing. sure, he has taken the game over himself on many occasions, but often, he threw the ball somewhere he shouldn't have. in the spread, though, he never had any faith in his defense to help him. that gives braxton an advantage. he knew that if he couldn't get the job done on a series, he would get another opportunity to correct it soon, and his defense would always keep him in the game. if denard didn't lead a scoring drive, he almost always took the field again after an opposing TD. that's a tough way to play
Denard is basically a DB with a decent arm playing QB. He will no doubt have another big year full of spectacular run highlightls but he's very limited in terms of passing. I think Miller will be better this year than he was last year but not enough to outshine Denard. Now I hope im wrong because I cant stand to see a out of position scUM QB making plays up and down the field but when it comes to his speed and running ability, he's up there with the best of them....
I think Denard's going to have a pretty big year. No matter how talented they are most quarterbacks aren't really good until their junior year (Pryor, Barkley, Luck <RS Soph, but same thing>, ect...), and even though he is a senior, he was so clueless his freshman year, it's basically his third year actually knowing how to play QB.
I think Miller will marginally out pace Denard in the air because we're going to run a lot more plays/the nature of the offense in general, but I think Denard will definitely beat him on the ground.
D-Rob will have the superior numbers. Word is he's been steadily improving his passing, and I'm betting we'll see Borges' West Coast approach come more into focus this year. Robinson will have less yards rushing (but not dramatically so, though Touissant's emergence will help share the load), and his passing numbers and efficency will see improvement, especially in the latter subject. He'll be throwing more timing routes this year, and less jump balls: hence less interceptions.
That being said, Miller will flourish in Meyer's spread. It's also worth noting that Meyer recruited Miller pretty heavily in high school, and UF was among his top five. He may not be quite the gamebreaker that D-Rob is on the ground, but he has loads more talent as a true quarterback. As Miller starts to come into his own under Meyer and Herman's system, we'll see a wealth of improvement. By the time the Michigan game comes around, you'll be watching the Big Ten's best two quarterbacks going head-to-head to see who's number one.
This year Robinson will definitely have better passing and rushing numbers. He's a senior, Miller's a sophomore. Senior Robinson > Sophomore Miller. I also don't get those who critcize Denard as a passer, sure he doesn't throw a pretty ball, but he put up good numbers. I would however take junior or senior year Braxton over senior year Denard.
I know who will have more INTs.
@ Hodge "By the time the Michigan game comes around, you'll be watching the Big Ten's best two quarterbacks going head-to-head to see who's number one."
That just gave me chills. Can't wait.
I think someone slightly mentioned it already, but it's definitely important to note that under Meyer's often-no-huddle offense, we're expecting a lot more plays per game. Could allow Braxton that many more chances to run, throw etc. Certainly he's going to double (or more) his passing attemtps compared to last year.
Also important to note - TTUN plays Alabama early. People have already mentioned how banged up Denard can get - I fully expect some hurtin' from Bama's defense (I don't WANT the guy to get hurt - he's a good kid). I just think Bama's D is pretty quick and hard hitting. I mean they didn't even let LSU cross the 50 yard line till the second half for crying out loud.
Cool topic - can't wait to see how it plays out.
This is a great question. I think Denard is going to have a great year. I don't think Miller is going to have the same gaudy stats, but will still make a big jump into the big boy ranks nation-wide. The Ohio State-Michigan game is going to be the must-see game of the year by the season's end.
I think Braxton is a better QB than Denard...at least, he will be. Will the stats reflect it? Not necessarily. Would I trade him? Never. Denard can be the most electric player in college football at anytime. His smile is contagious and he's just fun to watch.
Everyone is quick to jump on his passing ability. First of all, he has a cannon for his frame. The problem has never been about ability, but always about decision making. Last year he threw up too many jump balls and, as Spielman and Urban pointed out every time they covered a Michigan game (worst crew ever), Denard would have a wide open running lane and opt to pass late, or he'd miss a wide open receiver and force it to another.
Some interesting tidbits:
-Denard is less than 1200-1400 rushing yards away from Pat White's QB rushing record. No one in their right mind sees him running that much or see's Humble Hoke going out of his way for an idividual---but you just never know.
-In Denard's second year in RichRod's offense, he took off. Similarly, this is his second year in Borges' system. If he's more comfortable and has a better understanding, we could see another big jump in productivity.
-Fitz has established himself as a threat and there is some concern at WR. How much will the offense change?
Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler
As of right now we can only hope Miller has the career that Denard has had.
I'm just looking forward to Robinson's Wonderlic score. Anyone? The skill set to tie your shoes probably sits at like, a 3.
^^lets not throw stones here....no reason to think he's not an intelligent kid just because he's a scUMmer. after all, Terrelle Pryor was reported at some embarrassingly low score on his initial test...
I'm not too interested in the Wonderlic...but I am interested to see if he continues that stupid "eating" reference like he did last year against OSU? Something tells me that won't be happening too much at the Shoe in 141 days. Miller will have a better year with Completion % this year (much improved from 54%). He should out do Robinson in yards as well due to OSU passing as much as most Ohio State fans believe he'll be doing (High %age passes with some amounting in big yards on occasion and some enough to move the chains). He wasn't a turn over machine like Shoelace has been over his career and I don't see that being too much worse in 2012. Not sure but Miller should have Robinson on rushing too...possibly. May be something like 20+ Passing TDs and 5 or 6 picks is what I could see for Miller (with an additional 15+ rushing TDs). We'll see...if he rushes for 1000+ and passes for 2500+ or more...you know what all the talk will be about...not sure that will happen but it would make for a better year if someone won some hardware on offense. Pretty damn sure there will be some on defensive side of the ball something tells me;-)
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."
"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."
Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987
Not trying to be a homer but i honestly might takeBraxtons sophomore year over Denerds senior year.
@NMAX, yeah Pryor was obviously a giant moron, not sure how that compares. Not that it wasn't a joke in the first place
Amen @HAIL, I think you hit the nail on the head. I have to admit that I've long been jealous of Denard's gamebreaking runs...even when Pryor was at the helm here. Pryor's frame lent him to gliding, Vince-Young-esque runs to the outside, while Robinson's always been a legit home-run threat every damn play. Last season, though, really whetted my appetite for the Braxton era. Kid may not have Shoelace's feet, but watching his 80 yard run against Indiana has me absolutely amped to see how a legit offensive coordinator utilizes him.
That being said, if Robinson can get his timing down (and make good decisions) in Borges' offense, he'll easily be a Heisman finalist. Even though I thought his spoonfeeding during The Game was annoying (though harmless), I have to admit that I like the kid. He seems like a class act, and someone who genuinely loves his school and the game he plays.
I don't think it's a given that these are the two best QBs in the B1G next year. Iowa is looking to run more 4 and 5 wide sets this year with Greg Davis' system, and Vandenberg is the kind of guy that can just sit back in the pocket and sling it. Davis was the former offensive coordinator at Texas during the Vince Young and Colt McCoy years, and Vandenberg is a better raw passer than both. I could see Vandenberg throwing for 3500+ yards and 28+ TDs in Davis' system (last year he threw for 3022 yards, 25 TDs, 7 INTs... pretty solid numbers).