Wednesday Skull Session

Welcome to your Wednesday Skull Session and the midway point of Michigan Week! 

I hope current students have managed to catch a few hours of sleep and warm up after the Mirror Lake Jump. 

As if The Game needed any additional hype besides its very existence (it doesn't), a lot rides on a Buckeye victory this week: it's Urban's first year as head coach in a potentially renewed Ten Year War, it's the seniors' last game, Braxton can take home some postseason hardware, there will be a ton of recruits in attendance, and most importantly, Beat Michigan. 

There are a lot of distracting news items this week between record-breaking basketball scores, NCAA punishments, coaching changes, and conference additions, but the most important thing will always be beating Michigan. 

That's not to say these distractions aren't interesting or important, but this game is what every recruit who signs an Ohio State LOI dreams about – being the next Wolverine Slayer. 

That doesn't mean it'll be easy – the Wolverines aren't pushovers, no matter what any video game simulation says (remember what it "predicted" about Wisconsin last week?).

 IT'S GONNA BE BIG. One of Ross' bye-week articles covered the biggest matchup for The Game – the Ohio State offense vs. the Michigan defense, and it's clear that the Buckeyes will have to establish the ground game through edge Miller runs and Hyde inside zone in order to win. 

Below are the stats for Ohio State and Michigan in their games against FBS winning teams: 

It's pretty simple: Ohio State has a better rushing offense and defense, while Michigan has the better passing offense and defense.

Interestingly, the largest advantage one unit has over another is between the Ohio State rushing offense and Michigan rushing defense at 58 yards per game. This is good news for the Buckeyes, as Michigan's strength is surprisingly in their pass defense. 

That doesn't mean it'll be a piece of cake to stop the Michigan offense, however, as there's also a fairly large yards per game difference (43) between the Michigan passing offense and the Buckeye pass defense. 

Further, who knows what Michigan may do with Denard in the backfield and Devin under center: 

Al Borges doesn't want to answer any questions about this new Devin/Denard offense.

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) November 20, 2012

Probably because he's worried about how many sacks he knows John Simon will have. 

 DENARD THE ???-BACK. As mentioned above, one of the things Urban, Fickell, and Withers have to prepare for is the possibility of seeing Denard and Devin in the backfield at the same time. 

With Gardner coming on strong while filling in for an injured Robinson -–completing 66% of his passes for 834 passing yards and a 190.2 QB rating – it's likely the Silver Bullets will see a fairly decent Michigan passing game as well as some trick plays. And Meyer knows it: 

''You just know something's coming,'' Meyer said. ''It's a question of what.''

Robinson lined up behind and alongside QB Gardner against the Hawkeyes. He'll do that again and probably will be split out wide as a receiver at times against the Buckeyes. He got the ball on toss sweeps, handoffs and short passes. He also got a handoff and flipped the ball on an option...Once, Robinson was used as a decoy to help Gardner throw one of his three touchdown passes because Iowa was concentrating so much on where Robinson was on the field.

The point is that while the Ohio State offense vs. Michigan defense is undoubtedly the biggest matchup of the game, the improvement of the passing game under Gardner as well as the unpredictability that comes with Denard being moved around will certainly require some increased attention. 

It's clear that the Buckeye defensive personnel and scheme have improved in the latter half of the season, largely shutting down opponents' explosive plays.

For instance, the Buckeyes went from being ranked 84th in number of plays of 20+ yards given up during October to first in the country during November. That is equivalent from giving up 4.5 plays of 20 or more yards per game to giving up just one 20+ play per game.

The Buckeyes look to hold Devin and Denard in check – no matter where the pair line up on the field. 

Mirror Lake 2012

DON'T WORRY, BE HAPPY. According to the general consensus outside of Ohio (and for some inside), the entire season is ruined thinking about what could have been if not for the bowl ban. 

Pat Forde, for instance, says that

All Ohio State can do now is try to go 12-0, root for a Notre Dame loss and then lobby as the lone unbeaten for an AP No. 1 and split national title. 

Mostly, the Buckeyes can spend December regretting the decision they made last year.

I don't think that anyone should mostly focus on regret right now – why would we sulk and cry about a bowl ban that we've known about forever, especially when we have so much (potentially going undefeated!) to be thankful for? 

Further, what decision did you or I make that caused a bowl ban? We can feel bad for the seniors who are missing their last bowl game, but we've been treated to a fantastic season so far, have an undefeated first-year coach, and a sophomore Heisman candidate at quarterback. Life is good, Buckeye fans.  

 THE B1G GETS A LITTLE BIGGER. There's a lot that needs to be said about the renewed conference expansion on the identity and competitive balance both within the Big Ten and between the conferences.

There's a lot to be said  – which is why this should have happened in December! This is That State Up North Week! But it is my duty to you, dear reader, to at least record the Rutgers addition so that maybe we can all talk about it – and welcome the two teams –  after this coming Saturday. 

While TV markets were certainly the primary factor in the B1G's decision to add Maryland and Rutgers, it's also possible that the move was caused by conference competition: 

In essence, the Big Ten just told the ACC, "You want to brawl, we'll brawl." It told the Big East, "We didn't start this, but we'll finish it if we have to." The expansion and realignment arms race has begun again. The Big Ten had watched the ACC use the Big East as its own personal chop shop and decided it had to act.

I think ESPN's Gene Wojciechowski has a good point that the conferences have to compete with one another for eyes. That is, it's not just about the Big Ten (Network) adding viewers and increasing revenue, it's about making sure the other guys don't add viewers and revenue. 

My issue is that the "other guys" shouldn't be the Big East or the ACC, but the SEC, B12, and Pac-12. We can (hopefully) assume that it is in the Big Ten's interest to compete regularly for national championships – to produce teams that go through rigorous conference seasons, play marquee out-of-conference games, and emerge unscathed to beat nationally-ranked teams in bowl games. 

Unfortunately, the Big Ten has to fight a somewhat uphill battle due to a shifting population base (and pool of elite recruits), unless it can recruit nationally like Ohio State: 

...if Meyer does not once again burn out his psyche on a hotel-room carpet, the Buckeyes will dominate the Big Ten for at least the remainder of the decade. With the possible exception of an aberrant Michigan or Wisconsin squad here or there, I cannot see anyone consistently challenging them.

While I was initially underwhelmed with the Maryland and Rutgers choices, I believe Jim Delany is actually executing a long-term grand strategy for the conference: Rutgers and Maryland themselves might not be competing for national titles anytime soon, but the increased cash flow to member schools and increased conference visibility across the country will absolutely make the rich (Ohio State) even richer. 

It's certainly a worthy question – while Nate Silver believes the conference made a mistake, do we even care outside of how it might impact Ohio State's chances at the national championship? Do you feel any sense of B1G nationalism? For all of the potential problems with the move (i.e. it's during rivalry week), at least change itself is kind of exciting, right? Right!?

Ultimately, these questions are relatively unimportant each year as long as OSU beats Michigan. 

 SOME LEFTOVER LINKS (THAT HOKE DIDN'T EAT). We'll start off with your weekly meltdown, featuring two former unbeatens... Malcolm Jenkins may have played well, but there are definitely some NFL fails to gif... Braxton looks like he'll get that seat in New York if he plays well this weekend... Kiffin in trouble, obviously... The Pirate had a bad, bad first year at WSU.