Time for a Run?
Heading into this season, the 40% of Buckeye fans that follow the basketball team with any type of seriousness1 thought very good things could be in store. After all, Thad Matta was bringing back all five of his starters from a 22-win team and the one departure in the rotation was a seven-footer that couldn’t rebound. Further, in Evan Turner, the Buckeyes had, in the eyes of this homer at least, the best player in the Big Ten.
The B10, Right Now
| TEAM | W | L | GB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | 5 | 0 | - |
| Illinois | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | 4 | 2 | 1½ |
| Michigan | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Ohio State | 3 | 3 | 2½ |
| Minnesota | 3 | 3 | 2½ |
For the first eight games, things went swimmingly. The team went 7-1 with a close loss to UNC in the Garden, quality out-of-conference wins against Cal and Florida State, and the expected 30 and 40 point hammerings of the James Madisons and Lipscombs of the world.
And then The Villain broke his back.
A team missing its glue took one on the chin at Butler before putting together ho-hum wins over Presbyterian, Delaware State and Cleveland State before moving on to conference play. Though they were winning, a true scoring threat failed to emerge. Buford disappeared a bit, Diebler couldn’t carry the load and though Lighty went off for 30, those nights would be the exception as opposed to the rule.
The Buckeyes, without Turner dropped their road opener at Wisconsin, which to be fair, is a tough place to play, regardless and then followed it up with loss at Crisler. Turner returned for the Indiana game, surprising most with such an early recovery and OSU easily topped the hapless Hoosiers, but three days later, the Buckeyes came up short against the Gophers and were dead in the water at 1-3 in the Big Ten and facing a road trip to sixth-ranked Purdue and a home tilt with the surging Badgers. It’s uber-rare, but not impossible to win the conference with a 13-5 mark, but opening 1-5 is not exactly the way you want to do it.
Thad’s crew watched Robbie Hummel go Reggie Miller on them to the tune of eight first half three pointers and 29 points in the first half and the dreaded 1-5 conference start moved closer to reality before storming back to upset the Boilermakers. Turner’s career-high 32 was an emphatic way of saying he’s back and the team followed up the road upset by taking down the Badgers at home on Saturday.
Instead of starting 1-5, the team has rebounded to a respectable 3-3 and there’s a glimmer of hope for what would have been an impossible thought only a week ago — the Buckeyes might be in a position to make a serious run at the Big Ten regular season crown. Sound crazy?
| 1/19 | Northwestern |
|---|---|
| 1/27 | @ Iowa |
| 1/31 | Minnesota |
| 2/3 | Penn State |
| 2/7 | Iowa |
| 2/10 | @ Indiana |
| 2/14 | @ Illinois |
| 2/17 | Purdue |
| 2/20 | @ Michigan State |
| 2/24 | @ Penn State |
| 2/27 | Michigan |
| 3/3 | Illinois |
There’s a dangerous game in Morgantown this weekend that may or may not put a dent into the team’s swagger depending on how things turn out, but strictly looking that the remaining conference games, we’re probably looking at a 10-2 finish in a best-case scenario: road losses to Illinois and Michigan State and taking the rest. Worst case, I still think you’re looking at an 8-4 finish. Purdue the second time will be a challenge, even at home, while one of the roadies between Iowa and Penn State kind of spook me for as outrageous as that sounds. And don’t think I’m not excited to miss the Wildcats in Evanston for the first time in my life, either.
So assuming the best and a 10-2 finish for a hot team with The Villain owning opposing defenses, the 13-5 mark puts the team in the neighborhood of teams, including OSU in ‘02, that won the Big Ten in the early part of the decade. The Buckeyes would need some serious help, however. The Spartans are currently 5-0 in conference play and Izzo has one of the more physical and better prepared teams in the nation, so an 8-5 finish on their end would require a break (or five). Kalin Lucas getting tossed from practice a few more times would certainly help.
That aside, looking at Sparty’s schedule, there are four road games that could bite them: Minnesota on Saturday, Wisconsin on 2/2, Illinois on 2/6 and Purdue on 2/27. But where would a fifth loss come from? At Michigan? Purdue in East Lansing? At Penn State (blind squirrels and all)?
This grand scenario is assuming the Spartans stop the Buckeyes in East Lansing. If the Buckeyes can steal that one, which may setup as a de facto regular season title game, then the path becomes much clearer and we’re celebrating the hoops team turning it around like the football team did.
And then that sweet, sweet class of 2010 shows up to school.
- 1 It gets brought up plenty around these parts, but we still refuse to believe Buckeye Nation can’t support both major mens’ sports with a passion. Longhorn fans seem to pull it off.
That would be fantastic! I was very impressed with how we played the last two games (aside from missing a ton of easy shots @ Purdue). If this team is playing at full pace then they have a chance against anyone in the Big 10.
While I love how the Buckeyes have looked over the past two games (huge wins), I think the Spartans would win pretty easily. Not a blowout, but that team is sound and while I think we could play with them, I wouldn’t expect a win…aside from just a pure homer call of course.
I did like the depth they showed on Saturday – they HANDLED Whiskey even after they came out swinging after the half. Loved it.
8-4 (5 of the next 6) is a real possibility IMO.
live in Texas. don’t kid yourself: the Whorns don’t support their bb team at anything near the level of their fb team. don’t know who told you otherwise but it just tain’t so.
I’m just going off what I see when games are televised from the Erwin Center. Perhaps it has more to do with the seating in that barn (esp. compared to VCA), but it looks like a different universe.
The Schott was pretty live on Saturday night.. I know that much..
Finally…
Can anyone think of a way in which hitting the best case scenario of going 10-2 in the Big 10 basketball conference slate sets us up for a national title run in football next year?
I try to care as much about basketball as football, I really do. But nothing going.
it means TP doesn’t have to come help out the bball team, giving him more time to work on football, making him better, setting us up for a MNC run?
Nice breakdown of the Bowl TV ratings; Rose Bowl in a strong second to the national title game. There was a significant boost from last year’s Rose Bowl, which is likely attributable to the fact that OSU was in the game for the first time since 1997, and the general boredom with USC Rose Bowls. Can’t imagine the Oregon factor would help the ratings that much. Also, very sharp drop off between OSU-Texas Fiesta bowl and the BSU-TCU game, which is not surprising.
http://nittanywhiteout.com/2010/01/18/big-ten-ratings-sweep-official-2009-2010-nielsen-bowl-ratings/
“It gets brought up plenty around these parts, but we still refuse to believe Buckeye Nation can’t support both major mens’ sports with a passion. Longhorn fans seem to pull it off.”
Thank you Jason. Your boy Luke doesn’t seem to agree with the Longhorn part. Although being #1 usually doesn’t hurt attendance.
My question is, does being a football fan and not a basketball fan make you “fair-weathered”?
That is assuming one usually does not support basketball due to the fact we are only in the top 5 every four years or so? But when the basketball team is in the top 5, the attendance improves.
Being an OSU football fan is easy. I give alot of credit to the Browns and Bungles being two gigantic pieces of shit year in and year out. Who knows? Without that the NFL guys may not have to fall back on trusty old OSU.
I have an issue I would like to raise about the excitement over the 2010 class.
Here is who we’re guaranteed and LIKELY to lose after this season:
PJ Hill (Graduation)
Jeremie Simmons (Graduation)
Kyle Madsen (Graduation)
Evan Turner (NBA)
William Buford (NBA)
Here is who we return:
Jon Diebler (Sr.)
David Lighty (Sr.)
Dallas Lauderdale (Sr.)
Nikola Kecman (Jr.)
Zsis Sarokopoulos (Jr.)
Now, pardon me for being a bit negative, but is that a core that we can build around to really have the great season everyone is talking about? We return 3 starters and 2 END OF THE BENCH guys. Some of you may suggest that Buford is returning to school, but I’m here to tell you that if he grades even as a LATE first-rounder, he’s gone. And he likely will get that grade, just like BJ Mullens did.
So, to complement that extremely thin core, we have these 6 players coming in:
Aaron Craft (PG)
Lenzelle Smith (G)
Jordan Sibert (SG)
JD Weatherspoon (F)
Deshaun Thomas (F)
Jared Sullinger (C)
Which leaves us with this rotation:
PG: A. Craft / ??
SG: Diebler / L. Smith
3G: Lighty / J. Sibert
F: D. Thomas / J. Weatherspoon / Kecman
C: Jared Sullinger / Lauderdale / Sarokopoulos
Now, while there is a lot of talent on this team, there are several problems:
1) Relying on a freshman point guard is very dangerous. Especially when you have NO DEPTH behind him. Craft could turn into Mike Conley (highly doubtful) or Noopy Crater.. and either way we’re just going to have to live with his ups and downs, because there is no one else on the roster that I would trust to handle the ball. What’s more, Craft is not a 5 star can’t miss prospect, he’s a well regarded borderline 3/4 star prospect who will undoubtedly need a lot of seasoning before he is comfortable as THE GUY.
2) Where will the scoring come from? Lighty is good for a bunch of points here and there, but is there anything that makes you think he will become a consistent lead scorer next year? Diebler shoots the lights out of the ball but can’t get his own shot. Who will be a playmaker and get him the ball in advantageous positions? With our two options looking less than guaranteed, we turn to our true freshman. Sullinger and Thomas will undoubtedly be able to score a bunch of points PROVIDED that someone gets them the ball in playmaking places. So, again, our ability to score will depend on the playmaking abilities of a borderline 3/4 star true freshman point guard. Does this concern anyone else?
3) Our entire season depends on these freshmen being what they are supposed to be. Will Aaron Craft be Noopy or Conley? Will Jared Sullinger be Oden or Mullens? Will Sibert be able to fill Buford’s shoes? Will Deshaun Thomas be the immediate impact scorer we will need? Will Weatherspoon and L. Smith be able to contribute immediately or will they be more on par with Walter Offutt and Eric Wallace (the closest comparisons from recent years in terms of recruiting ratings)?
IF IF IF these freshmen develop as we hope and turn out to be closer to Oden/Cook/Conley than Mullens/Crater.. we will have a fun season. But this is no guarantee, and I would humbly suggest that projecting most recruits college productivity is little more than a crapshoot.
…not to mention the following year when the Srs (Lauderdale, Lighty, Diebler) graduate and Thomas and Sullinger go pro. This is why I keep going back to, “give me the early 90s (average froshies, great seniors …yes, JJ was an exception) over this superstar/one-and-done crap, any day.”
Ironically, that was going to be my follow-up comment. 2011 is a trainwreck.
Your intelligence is not ironic, Brian E. You’re just smart, my friend.
Haha.. same to you.
I just can’t see Buford leaving…NO WAY he is a 1st round pick…ET may even stay as he has expressed interest in the past, but will likely be a lottery pick and leave…Buford, Lighty, Dallas, and Diebler with the frosh…me likey
Even if Buford returns, which I consider highly unlikely, you have to project Buford turning into more of a Turner-type playmaker for it to make a huge difference with the issues I brought up. I don’t think Buford has that in him. Too many turnovers and forced shots and not enough passing acumen.
IF Buford returns, he will unquestionable help us offensively with his point production.. but will he also turn into a playmaker? Doubtful.
I’m from Toledo and I know the part of town from where Buford hails, as well as the high school for which he played. If the general socioeconomic status of that part of town is any indicator of his family’s status, and I’d wager it is, then I fully suspect Buford will be gone after this year, and I don’t blame him at all. Needs to get more consistent though before taking his game to the Show.
I’m tired of all the whining.
What does anyone have to compare against in terms of Buckeye bball that makes what is going on now so bad?
We run all the way to the F4, the year before last and everyone is complaining Matta recruits TOO well? How fucking ridiculous is that?
Let me tell you, if Matta was to solely concentrate on recruiting 3 year minimum players instead of top 50 talent, then we would have a team who looks alot like this years team. A solid player or two, and hoping the team can gel enough to beat Sparty.
Get a fucking clue. I’m glad you don’t talk this way about Tressel’s recruiting. No problems there.
Right now I’m still on that delusional, highly optimistic trip that The Villain will return next season and we’ll be able to make a run at duel national chips.
*goes back to bed*
That would be fantastic. I hope you’re right.
Brian E.
That was 50 paragraphs of idiotic old-man rambling. You haven’t the faintest idea how cbball works. Name one team who doesn’t suffer the same turnover rate, and consistently reaches at least the sweet 16 every year. You can’t. What the fuck did OSU do so great in the 90’s that makes you want to bring back “the good ole days”?
“IF IF IF these freshmen develop as we hope and turn out to be closer to Oden/Cook/Conley than Mullens/Crater.. we will have a fun season. But this is no guarantee, and I would humbly suggest that projecting most recruits college productivity is little more than a crapshoot”
If “if” was a fifth, we’d all be drunk! Grow some balls. Projecting productivity is not a little more than a crapshoot, it’s alot more. You fit right in with the crowd at the Schott.
I think you mean “glimmer” or “sliver” of hope, not slimmer. Or, was that an intentional sniglet, a slimmer of hope being smaller than a glimmer?
Ha – thanks, man. My bad.
every program that gets top recruits has to deal with this. some schools, like carolina, kansas etc. just have more of them to help plug the holes. i’m sure that regrets not having a few more 4-yr types to help fill out the roster. can’t fault him for going after the top players, but there can be a downside. he’s been unlucky though — koufus & mullens weren’t ready, but they went anyway. and crater, kecman, z etc. simply didn’t pan out. i like thad though, and i’m excited about this team.