Recruiting Models and Three Big Fish
With Tajh Boyd rumored to be announcing shortly and Marcus Hall and Marlon Brown right around the corner, wouldn’t it be great if there was a predictive model that could tell us ahead of time whether these young men will end up Buckeyes? You know, to save fingernails and whatnot.
Getting Tajh Boyd would be kind of freshLuckily for is, there is. We present the Football Recruiting Prediction Model from the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.
The econometric model started with a Rivals recruiting and commitment dataset and has tried to predict where recruits will end up since first evaluating prospects in 2004.
After correctly guessing the destination of 68% of the recruits the initial year, the model has improved to the point of now being able to correctly call the right choice for 73% of the top 250 recruits in the nation. While 73% may not scream “excellence” to you, the number is all the more impressive considering that the recruits are often considering four or more schools. And then there’s the part about 17 and 18 year-olds doing crazy, unpredictable shit.
They have found, that surprisingly, factors like BCS bowl appearances, current roster depth at the recruited player’s position and NFL draft picks don’t play heavily into the decisions of these top recruits. So what do recruits favor most?
So, in a nutshell, high school athletes prefer winning programs that are close to home, are in possession of good physical facilities, and are in good graces with the NCAA.
Makes sense. As does the part about recruits not putting too much emphasis on a school’s graduation rate (rock-on Michigan Man).
As for the three big fish the Buckeyes are still trying to reel in, lineman Marcus Hall is the only player forecasted to end up in Columbus. They see Boyd going to Oregon and Marlon Brown ending up at Tennessee.
| Tajh Boyd | Marcus Hall | Marlon Brown | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 31.6% | Ohio State | 31.4% | Tennessee | 23.9% | ||
| Ohio State | 22.9% | Michigan | 21.7% | Mississippi | 18.9% | ||
| Clemson | 18.4% | Illinois | 15.8% | Florida | 17.2% | ||
| Virginia | 8.8% | Tennessee | 15.6% | Georgia | 16.0% | ||
| Virginia Tech | 8.5% | Miami | 9.4% | Ohio State | 15.5% | ||
Of the three, I personally think Hall is the most important for the Buckeyes to get. I also agree with the model’s prediction that the Buckeyes will end up signing him. The numbers shown at right are current through 1/22, but you have to wonder how much Miami will jump on Hall’s list after the visit this weekend.
I also think they do a good job of reflecting the crapshoots that represent Boyd and Brown. The rumor mill is in overdrive that Boyd is a done-deal Buckeye, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Brown, on the other hand, has always been a longshot, but it’s comforting to to see that tight grouping of teams for him.
What do you think? Do you agree with the model’s forecast?
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(Inspiration for this post is the excellent Get the Picture)
I agree that Marlon Brown is a longshot, but there is no heavy lean on where he will end up, so the prediction represents that well.
As for Boyd’s projection, Oregon would make the most sense IMO, but my latest rumors have Oregon as a distant third. I said in one of the older posts that I heard he might redshirt due to an upcoming surgery, which would help our bid for him with Pryor expected to leave after his junior year, but that doesn’t coincide with their talk of how important the opportunity was to play RIGHT AWAY for him.
If given the chance, I honestly think Boyd could compete with Pryor, especially if we don’t see some improvement in his passing. Boyd’s dad talked with Pryor, and TP wants Boyd to come in and compete, saying whatever it takes to make this team the best, even if that means losing his job. Team. Player.
after reading some of Boyds fathers comments, I think he will end up at Clemson. Oregon is just too far from home
Just a rumor, but supposedly Tress told Boyd to watch the 2 QB system he used in the Fiesta.
I still say Pryor’s job is not a lock, and if he doesn’t make serious strides this off-season, we will see Boyd in a 2 man system next year.
ill be very dissapointed in pryors development if he needs someone to come in and throw for him
This article says Boyd to announce on Tuesday.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/recruiting/onthetrail
http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=880&CID=901193
Sorry to keep posting other articles, but this is Rivals.com “expert analyst” commitment predictions.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Boyd watched Pryor this year and saw that no matter how highly touted you are that doesn’t mean you’re going to come in looking flawless on all levels of the game. I like the idea of Pryor wanting Boyd to come to OSU. Although Pryor needs to look like a polished passer in spreading the ball around and working on shorter passes that gain first downs and move the chains instead of hold onto your seat deep passes.
Korey Stringer update
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3861331
As I said in another post. The most reliable insider on Scout is declaring that Boyd will be a Buckeye. Apparently he has bet his user account on it.
Ok that was as of yesterday.. The update now is quite confusing.. apparently there are some rumors of Oregon coaches being invited to the presser and another family member saying he is going to Clemson.. while others are still saying that it will the buckeyes and has been since Clemson visit.. so who really knows.. I’ll give it a 46.8700 to the third power times i834u chance that he is a buckeye and patiently wait til tomorrows presser..
By NCAA guidelines could a coach be present at a presser announcing intentions since coaches can’t specifically mention a specific recruit until signing day?
Yeah I’m pretty sure its not legal, the point I was trying to make though is that there is a lot of wacko stuff flying around out there
Just saw that Minny agreed to a 2-game set with USC. Looks like Brewster is trying to run with the big dogs. Has any BCS school scored 100 on another BCS school?
Because they need more than 1 game a year to take a lumpy shit on the Big10.
I like what Brewster’s trying to do, B10 teams NEED to start facing better competition… but it’s too much, too soon. The home and home is scheduled for 2010-2011, and I don’t think either of these programs will change enough that Minnesota can even think of hanging with USC even for one minute of regulation.
Agreed, Flip. I am one of those guys who want all the B10 schools to win every OOC game and bowl game, that includes scUM. Like you said, I just don’t think Minny is anywhere near that level yet….but Brewster has them playing well and is recruiting better than I could have imagined.
on the other hand, Stanford manages to hang with USC…
They’re going to get pasted, but it’s a huge get for the program with a new stadium opening and all.
Much needed East Coast exposure for the Trojans. Probably hurts them more to play in the pacific TZ than losing to Oregon St. There’s no way Oklahoma was better than SC, just more exposure.
Anyway, Im betting Boyd goes to Clemson. I think he was set to say Ohio St at the AllStar game, but a late pitch by Clemson got his attention.
Mack Brown on LIC, take it from someone who knows.
http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/83451
I think in the end, having Pryor already established here is going to hurt us a bit with Boyd. If Boyd wants to redshirt, then that buys him an extra year as a starter….but if he doesn’t and Pryor stays til his senior year, well that’s a hard sell to a recruit that you might only start 1 season.
I get a sense that Oregon is too far away for him/his family’s liking…but he’s probably a good fit for that system at least. Clemson to me has the least amount of selling power between the 3 schools…but his family does seem impressed by the direction Dabo is going. I personally just think Clemson is clearly a cut below Oregon and Ohio State as far as programs are concerned….and he’d only end up there if it’s just something he feels in his gut that it’s a right fit.
Word now is Hall going to Miami. They are pulling a bunch of late top OLs.
If Hall took a visit to Southern Methodist, he would say he is a Mustang lean. I do fear his visit to Tennessee however, and I’m sure his fellow Tarblooder, Edwards, will recruit him extremely hard and it’s the last visit he will make, but I’m almost positive the kid ends up in Scarlet and Gray.
Great post though Jason… I read about the computer and the recruiting projection the other day and am not a fan (The last thing College Football needs is another freakin’ computer…) I am impressed by how accurate its been, but I think we have a better shot at Boyd and Brown than its giving us credit for.
I am tracking any Boyd developments at http://www.hrvarsity.com and they promise to have his update up as soon as he has announced. There is a poll on the site indicating Clemson as the winner – makes me nervous coming from his hometown paper.
As a side note – Orhian Johnson played QB in high school – any thought he could be a serviceable backup if need be?
Are you in the 757?
Nope, the 734. I am busy doing missionary work in TSUN.
Ohh. I am constantly trying to check out hrvaristy, since I live in Hampton Roads.
When it gets late in the season of recruiting I am constantly
finding the local coverage on recruits to try and glean any
knowledge I can. Like last year with Pryor I was on the Post-Gazette
all the time.
The OSU “insiders” on scout.com are saying that Boyd is a lock for OSU. They said the decision has been made already and Boyd would have announced on Monday but he had family members out of town until Tuesday and he was waiting for them to get home.
I hope you’re right. But with these things, one just never knows until the announcement.
I hope you’re right, but if you go on Clemson boards there is similar insider info that they have Boyd, same with Oregon, and same with OSU. We really just have to wait and see.
Boyd will be a Buckeye after today. ;)
Or I will change my username to Fred Norris
According to BuckeyeXtra Boyd has indicated his desire to enroll in the Spring and particpate in Spring practices.
Clemson is on trimesters and their spring semester has already started which would seem to indicate they’re out. Oregon, like Ohio State, is on quarters.
We’ll see if this makes a difference; I still think he’s a Buckeye.
Check here after 5PM
http://www.dailypress.com/sports/highschool/
I’ll post if I hear before then…
looks like clemson. can’t win ‘em all.
http://www.dailypress.com/sports/highschool/dp-now-tajboydearly.0126,0,4321124.story
Yep Clemson, and I renege on my name change because its my name and I can do what I want :)
Apparently he called the OSU staff on Sunday and committed to them. So it will be interesting to see if any other details come out of this.. if thats the case then he has some serious issues.. i mean it was kinda obvious because the Clemson staff was pulling out all stops in the ninth hour and OSU wasn’t even worried..
How do you know this?
I don’t personally know this for 100% fact, but if you had a Scouts Account you can go read all of this for yourself.. apparently the news has even came out now that he even requested a specific #
the dude on the buckeyeplanet boards who is “in the know” has been saying the same thing. i think it’s possible that the info and the source who supplied it was bad, but i think it’s much more likely that boyd jerked people around
I don’t know if he intended to jerk people around. I think it’s more a case of a kid who didn’t have the balls to say “No”. I mean we’re still dealing with kids here. I know at his age I probably couldn’t make those kinds of decisions with confidence.
Good call. Remember, Terrelle Pryor said the hardest thing for him last year wasn’t saying yes to us, but saying no to Piss State and Michigan.
well the biggest problem with boyd seems to have been that he said “yes” to different schools at different times, not an inability to say “no”
Yeah sorry flip but that just isn’t the case, he committed to OSU, requested a specific #, reaffirmed his commitment via phone Tuesday morning… then went and announced for Clemson, he lied to the coaching staff at OSU and from what we are hearing from Oregon he lied to them too.. Chip Kelly flew out for the presser thinking he was going to be a duck.. the kid nor his family did not handle it well.. Terrelle Pryor didn’t lie to anyone like seemed to…
and to make matters worse apparently the reason we told Boucher to go ahead and accept Miami’s offer was because they had the silent verbal from Boyd.. Hence why Boucher was suddenly contacted and reoffered within an hour of Boyd’s shocker..
Sheeeeit. Well, here’s to Pryor having a phenomenal and injury-free season next year. Hopefully Bauserman doesn’t transfer because there are only walk-on’s beyond him on the depth chart. I really hope they get a really good QB next year or there’s trouble for the ‘10 season and beyond.
OSU= We (at least) play for National Titles
Clemson= They play for (ACC) Conference Titles
Oh well. Good Luck to the kid. I am cool with him not coming here, but not with the jerking around he did.
ACC Conference *DIVISION* titles at that
Damn I felt like (for 10 seconds or so) hanging my Buckeye flag outside his school today…yes I know it would have been tacky, classles, rude, everything else. Like I said the flip flopping is what got me. Good luck.
Wow. That’s all I can say. Let’s see if he is worth all the hype.
I got it from a media type, Ohio based, the kid definitely was headed or way and had confirmed it via text. I was asked to ask him why if I run into him.