Skull Session: ESPN Predicts a CFP First-Round Exit for Ohio State in 2026, the Buckeyes Finished No. 5 in Stop Rate and Colin White Says the Basketbucks Are “Out For Blood” in Ann Arbor

By Chase Brown on January 23, 2026 at 5:00 am
Ryan Day and Curt Cignetti
Robert Goddin/Imagn Images
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Welcome to the Skull Session.

Big one tonight in Ann Arbor.

More on that later.

Have a good Friday.

 ARE YOU SURE ABOUT THAT? This week, ESPN’s Bill Connelly picked his conference champions and a 12-team CFP bracket for the 2026 college football season. 

For the Big Ten, Connellly had one rule for his section: “It will be won by the best team not named Ohio State,” so he picked Indiana to win back-to-back league titles. 

We'll start with the conference that has produced the past three national champions. Ohio State won the national title in 2024 and spent most of 2025 at No. 1, but the Buckeyes incredibly haven't won a conference title since 2020 (when they won their fourth in a row). Michigan managed to get its nose in front and win three straight (2021-23), and while the Wolverines faltered in 2024, they still kept Ohio State out of the title game with a late-season upset. And in 2025, it was Indiana's turn to surpass college football's most consistently strong program.

Because I don't pick against a streak, let's say we're looking at a sixth straight non-Buckeyes champ in 2026. Per Schlabach, the most likely title candidates are No. 1 Indiana and No. 5 Oregon, with a drop down to No. 13 USC, No. 16 Iowa, No. 18 Michigan and No. 19 Washington. Oregon should be dynamite, I'm honestly very curious about USC, and Iowa was a series of gut-wrenching close losses from a magnificent season. But we're going to keep things simple here.

The pick: Indiana. I'm trying this new thing where I don't underestimate Indiana, so let's go with the Hoosiers. We don't yet know where college football's greatest turnaround story will end, and Curt Cignetti has already landed his next set of key veteran transfers in guys such as quarterback Josh Hoover (TCU), running back Turbo Richard (Boston College) and receiver Nick Marsh (Michigan State). Let's say for now that IU's run continues.

Connelly’s picks for the SEC, Big 12, and ACC were Georgia, Texas Tech, and Miami. His top Group of 6 champion was Hawai’i, which he called “awfully fun to watch” in 2025 and returns talent across all three phases. If the Rainbow Warriors can beat Stanford and Arizona State in 2026, they could be headed for the program’s biggest postseason game since the 2008 Sugar Bowl against Georgia, which they lost 41-10.

Connelly’s at-large CFP picks include Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Texas A&M, USC and Oklahoma State. He asked readers to hear him out about the Cowboys, and I did. With new head coach Eric Morris bringing the entire North Texas offense to Stillwater, Oklahoma State should score plenty of points in 2026. If it can play some defense, they could also make some noise.

As for Connelly’s Ohio State selection, here’s what he wrote:

OK, maybe Ohio State is a sure thing. The Buckeyes couldn't shift their offense out of Caution Mode when it counted in 2025, and it was costly. And though Ryan Day made what turned out to be a fabulous new defensive coordinator hire in Matt Patricia a year ago, he has an equally important hire to make on offense in the coming days or weeks. But no matter what, the Buckeyes will still have receiver Jeremiah Smith catching passes from Julian Sayin, with running back Bo Jackson -- who improved significantly throughout his freshman year -- in the backfield. There might not be a better starting point for any roster in the sport.

Connelly slotted Ohio State to face Texas in a No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup in the CFP first round… and then picked the Buckeyes to lose? I get not picking Ohio State to win the Big Ten, but losing a December home game to a team from Austin, Texas? No chance.

(Just to round out the article, Connelly picked Oregon, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, and Texas to reach the quarterfinals; Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Texas Tech to reach the semifinals; Notre Dame and Georgia to reach the championship game; and Notre Dame to win it all.)

With the potential to face at least six highly ranked teams, Ohio State’s 2026 schedule looks like a gauntlet. While that might keep the Buckeyes from winning — or even reaching — the Big Ten Championship Game, it should prepare both coaches and players for a CFP run. Road trips to Texas, Indiana, USC, and Iowa, plus home games against Oregon and Michigan? That’s not even counting a trip to Nebraska and a matchup with Bert in the Horseshoe. If any team in college football will be battle-tested entering the playoff, it’s Ohio State — giving me confidence they can make a deep run, assuming they win enough games to go dancin’ next year (and I trust that they will).

 HE IS NO. 1! Another reason I am confident in Ohio State entering 2026 is that the Buckeyes have Jeremiah Smith, who ranked No. 1 in On3’s top 100 players in college football next season.

Smith led a list of four Buckeyes, also including Julian Sayin (No. 12), Bo Jackson (No. 41) and Austin Siereveld (No. 42). The list should be more like seven because I think the On3 writers forgot players like Brandon Inniss, Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and Jermaine Mathews Jr. exists, but alas, those Buckeyes will prove their worth soon enough.

 ONCE GENERATIONAL, BUT NOW WHAT? It was fair to call Ohio State’s defense generational during the regular season. But after losses to Indiana and Miami to close the year, what should we make of the Silver Bullets?

Ohio State finished 2025 ranked No. 1 nationally in total defense and scoring defense, allowing just 219.1 yards and 9.3 points per game — the fewest by any FBS defense in 14 years. Yet by one advanced metric, the Buckeyes weren’t quite the nation’s most dominant unit. Stop rate, created by ESPN’s Matt Olson, measures the percentage of defensive drives that end in a punt, turnover or turnover on downs.

Texas Tech led the country in stop rate at 83.5%, followed by Toledo (79.6%), undefeated national champion Indiana (78.3%) and San Diego State (78.2%). Ohio State checked in next at 78%. The Buckeyes also allowed just 1.04 points per drive, second nationally behind only Texas Tech’s 0.92.

So, was Ohio State’s defense truly generational?

Maybe not.

But it was still elite!

 “OUT FOR BLOOD.” At 8 p.m. in Ann Arbor, Ohio State will be out for blood.

That’s how Colin White put it earlier this week.

“We hate Michigan, so we’re coming out for blood,” the sophomore forward said. “We’re going up there to win, and we’re going to have fun doing it.”

I love the mentality.

Michigan is 17-1 and ranked No. 3 in the latest AP Poll behind Arizona and UConn, but White and his teammates aren’t afraid of the big, bad Wolverines — especially four-time captain Bruce Thornton, who said at Big Ten Media Days that the Buckeyes would “beat them twice before I leave out.”

“This is a game that we’re all really excited for,” Jake Diebler said. “It’s a game that should be played twice a year. I’m glad the Big Ten did that. It should be that way forever.”

A win in Ann Arbor would be massive for Ohio State’s Big Ten Tournament seeding and NCAA Tournament hopes, and I’m eager to see if the Buckeyes can take advantage of the opportunity. The Buckeyes and Wolverines tip off at 8 p.m. on FOX.

 THE ELEVEN DUBCAST. I joined Dan Hope on today’s episode of The Eleven Dubcast to discuss Ohio State’s initial (Dan says don’t call them “way-too-early”) rankings for the 2026 season and whether the Buckeyes should be ranked No. 1.

 SONG OF THE DAY. "Somebody Else" - The 1975.

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