Welcome to the Skull Session.
No more sleeps.
The stage is set.
Tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/1FUGDoq6QH
— Chase Brown (@chaseabrown__) December 30, 2025
Have a good Wednesday.
“AS DAY MERGES INTO NIGHT.” They don’t make ’em like Keith Jackson anymore. Watch and listen as he set the tone for Ohio State vs. Miami in the BCS National Championship Game on Jan. 3, 2003.
No, they certainly do not.
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) December 30, 2025
1,000/10. No notes. https://t.co/HtOWef0m97 pic.twitter.com/BcVY0BIgZv
Ohio State vs. Miami in the CFP quarterfinals at the Cotton Bowl doesn’t have the grandeur of that matchup from almost 23 years ago, but a national championship is still very much at stake. The Cotton Bowl winner will face Georgia or Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl and, with another win over the Bulldogs or Rebels, advance to the national title game against Indiana, Texas Tech, Oregon or Alabama.
You know who I’m ridin’ with in Dallas: The World Famous Ohio State Buckeyes.
I don’t have much to break down here — mostly because I’ll lean on Pro Football Focus’ Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman and The Athletic’s Ralph D. Russo to handle the X's and O’s later in the Skull Session.
So for now, I’ll keep it simple with a score prediction:
Ohio State 31, Miami 13
“THEY HAD AN AFTERPARTY SCHEDULED.” Before we dive into stuff to look for in the 2025 matchup, let’s look back to the 2002 matchup, as The Athletic’s Chris Vannini wrote an article featuring comments from Ohio State’s Maurice Clarett and Miami’s Kevin Beard about the Instant Classic in Arizona.
Here’s how Vannini launched his article:
It was on the flight down to Texas earlier this week that former Ohio State running back Maurice Clarett had a realization.
…
“What I remember most was how much they doubted us,” Clarrett said Monday. “Prior to the game, they had an afterparty scheduled.”
But a lot of people here for this game don’t remember it. Clarett, who has traveled with the Buckeyes to big games in recent years, noticed that the only two people on the team flight who were part of that last big Miami game were him and longtime head trainer Doug Calland.
“None of these kids were even born when I played,” Clarett said.
And here’s how he continued it:
All dynasties come to an end, and it’s hard to know when that moment will arrive. That night in Arizona turned out to be the one for Miami.
“When I look back on it, it was probably more of a mindset of, we got complacent, we got relaxed,” Beard said.
Beard and the 2003 Miami team finished 11-2 and ranked No. 5, a step down from the championship standard. The Hurricanes haven’t finished in the top 10 since then.
“I think what Miami lost at that moment was the culture,” Beard said. “When you came to Miami, you really didn’t play as a freshman. After those years, freshmen started coming in and playing early, and they didn’t have that foundation of the culture and what it took to become champions.
“That’s what has been missing for so many years. People just want to come and throw the “U” up, put that “U” on the helmet, come out of the smoke. But you gotta play. You’re the opponent’s championship game. That’s not an arrogant thing. That’s just what Miami’s tradition has created. That’s what started the spiral.”
This year’s Miami team is almost assured to finish in the top 10. A win on New Year’s Eve could lead to the program’s first top-five finish since Beard’s playing days, in addition to keeping national title hopes alive. These past two seasons are the first time Miami has won 10 games in consecutive seasons since 2002 and ’03. Slowly, Beard says, he’s starting to see what he used to.
“I think we’ve gradually built that up,” he said. “A lot of people want to be champions overnight, and most overnight champions don’t last long. Last year, getting left out of the playoffs, has put something in these guys. They understand now what it is and what is not. They’ve prepared mentally and emotionally every day, and us coaches try to do a good job of leading that.”
Miami is building itself back up — just in time for Ohio State to send them tumbling back down.
How nice.
Break the U, part two.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH. Four matchups stand out to Pro Football Focus’ Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman in the Cotton Bowl: Julian Sayin vs. Miami’s pass rush, Bo Jackson vs. Miami’s run defense, Carson Beck vs. Ohio State’s pass defense and Miami’s run offense vs. Ohio State’s run defense.
I summarized each matchup below.
Julian Sayin vs. Miami’s pass rush
According to PFF, Ohio State’s offensive line ranks No. 28 nationally in pass-blocking grade. While already solid, Julian Sayin can help make a good offensive line great by getting rid of the football quickly against Miami. Sayin has a 90.2 PFF passing grade and a 79.9% completion rate on throws released in 2.5 seconds or fewer. Both of those numbers rank among the top six for FBS quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Bo Jackson vs. Miami’s run defense
Bo Jackson has been a revelation for Ohio State’s offense this season, emerging as the team’s No. 1 running back as a freshman and collecting 1,235 scrimmage yards and six total touchdowns in 12 games.
According to PFF, Ohio State ranks No. 7 in the nation with a 75.9 run-blocking grade. “There’s not a lot of east/west in Ohio State’s run scheme, either, as the Buckeyes run either inside zone or some kind of gap scheme 74% of the time,” Chadwick wrote.
Despite the Buckeyes’ overall success running the football, the Hurricanes will challenge them on the ground. Miami has a 93.1 PFF run-defense grade, which ranks No. 11 in America, and on inside zone or gap runs, the Hurricanes rank No. 16 in success rate allowed.
Chadwick then shared this interesting stat: Ohio State has scored fewer than 24 points twice this season, a 14-7 win over Texas and a 13-10 loss to Indiana. Those two games were the only times the Buckeyes failed to rush for 100 or more yards.
Carson Beck vs. Ohio State’s pressure
Miami’s 86.8 PFF pass-blocking grade and Beck’s 2.33-second average time to throw both rank No. 3 nationally. As such, the Hurricanes have allowed pressure on just 15.8% of dropbacks this season, with no other team below 21%.
Still, when Beck is pressured, he stinks!
- When clean: 84.0 PFF grade (No. 58 nationally)
- When pressured: 42.0 PFF grade (No. 112)
- When not blitzed: 84.3 PFF grade (No. 18)
- When blitzed: 60.0 PFF grade (No. 112)
And here’s another interesting stat from Chadwick: Ohio State’s 39.7% pressure rate ranks No. 8 nationally, and the Buckeyes have achieved that despite blitzing quarterbacks at a 36.7% clip (No. 72).
Ohio State has gotten home all season without selling out — but against Miami, it’s time for Arvell Reese’s music.
Miami’s run blocking vs. Ohio State’s run defense
Future first-round pick Francis Mauigoa helps Miami rank No. 11 nationally with a 74 run-blocking grade. Meanwhile, Ohio State ranks No. 1 nationally with an 89.9 PFF run-defense grade thanks to future first-round picks Kayden McDonald, Sonny Styles and Reese. McDonald leads all interior defenders with a 92.2 run-defense grade, while Caden Curry ranks No. 6 among defensive ends with an 86.8 run-defense grade.
After writing these four sections, I feel much more confident in Ohio State’s chances entering Wednesday.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH, PART TWO. The Athletic’s Ralph D. Russo also highlighted a matchup to watch in the Cotton Bowl on Wednesday — Miami’s run game vs. Ohio State’s run defense — with a focus on whether the Hurricanes can hit home runs for a second straight game after torching Texas A&M in the first round.
Even after last week’s breakout performance from Mark Fletcher (17 carries, 172 yards), Miami ranks just 110th in the FBS in runs of 20-plus yards.
Allowing explosive runs had been an issue all season for Texas A&M, and Hurricanes offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson took full advantage. Ohio State does not share that problem.
The Buckeyes have allowed only 31 runs of at least 10 yards this season, the sixth-fewest in the nation. Just three runs against Ohio State have gone for more than 30 yards, and none have reached 40.
TL;DR: The answer is no. Miami will not be hitting home runs with Fletcher in the Cotton Bowl.
That’s not a core strength of the Hurricanes’ offense to begin with, and Ohio State brings Kayden McDonald, Caden Curry, Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and the best equalizer in college football, Caleb Downs, if Fletcher somehow slips through the first two levels.
OK. Now I feel supremely confident about Ohio State’s chances entering Wednesday.
Let's go watch the Buckeyes beat some Ibises into submission, shall we?
NEW DUBCAST. The final Eleven Dubcast of 2025 welcomes back Kyle Jones to preview the meeting in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals between Ohio State and Miami at the Cotton Bowl, assess the feelings between the schools and offer a final score outlook.
SONG OF THE DAY. “Hells Bells” - AC/DC.
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