Welcome to the Skull Session.
Ohio State is the biggest brand in college football — and it's not close.
THE biggest brand in College Football.#GoBucks pic.twitter.com/Xz6QAHD4NR
— Ohio State Buckeyes (@OhioStAthletics) December 10, 2025
Have a good Wednesday.
THE COMPUTERS! Following its loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, Ohio State is no longer the unanimous No. 1 team in America, but the Buckeyes are No. 1 in SP+ and No. 2 in FPI entering the College Football Playoff. Here's how The Computers! view Ohio State in December:
College Football Power Index
| TEAM | RECORD | FPI | MAKE CFP FINAL | WIN CFP FINAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDIANA | 13-0 | 28.8 | 43.1% | 25.9% |
| OHIO STATE | 12-1 | 32.4 | 45% | 25.9% |
| NOTRE DAME | 10-2 | 25.1 | WOMP WOMP | WOMP WOMP |
| OREGON | 11-1 | 25 | 21.9% | 10.3% |
| TEXAS TECH | 12-1 | 22.9 | 23.9% | 11% |
| GEORGIA | 12-1 | 21.9 | 26% | 11.6% |
Ohio State's potential Cotton Bowl opponents in the College Football Power Index: Texas A&M (11) and Miami (7)
SP+
| TEAM | RECORD | RATING | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO STATE | 12-1 | 31.6 | 39.1 (12) | 7.6 (1) | 0.0 (63) |
| INDIANA | 13-0 | 30.4 | 40.2 (4) | 10.2 (2) | 0.4 (38) |
| TEXAS TECH | 12-1 | 30.3 | 42 (2) | 12.1 (4) | 0.4 (43) |
| OREGON | 11-1 | 27.1 | 39 (13) | 12.3 (5) | 0.4 (37) |
| GEORGIA | 12-1 | 24.9 | 37.5 (14) | 13.3 (6) | 0.7 (4) |
Ohio State's potential Cotton Bowl opponents in SP+: Texas A&M (8) and Miami (9)
Matchup Predictor
| OPPONENT | DATE | LOCATION | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|---|
| INDIANA | 12/6 | INDIANAPOLIS, IN | INDIANA 50.6% |
Yes, I know the Matchup Predictor still shows Indiana. That's because I must apologize to the Matchup Predictor. It said the Hoosiers would beat the Buckeyes, and it was correct. Honestly, great call from the Matchup Predictor.
Also, I added a sixth row in the College Football Power Index table to feature Georgia because Notre Dame didn’t earn a CFP berth. I know the popular take has been to dunk on the Irish — and I did a little bit with the womp womp lines — but I still think the committee screwed them. I guess Miami deserves to be in over Notre Dame because of the head-to-head win, but the Irish are the better team, and we all know it. The committee knew it, too — until Sunday, when it decided to flip Miami and Notre Dame despite neither team playing a conference championship game. At the end of the day, the Irish would have posed a far bigger threat to Ohio State’s title chances than the Hurricanes. So I’ll dust off my shoes and move on.
A TRUE COIN FLIP. Back to the Matchup Predictor, the ESPN Analytics tool projected Indiana at 50.6% and Ohio State at 49.4%, indicating the Big Ten Championship Game would be a coin flip. That's exactly how it played out.
| METRIC | INDIANA | OHIO STATE |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | 13 | 10 |
| TIME LEADING | 29:11 | 23:36 |
| TIME OF POSSESSION | 29:47 | 30:13 |
| AVG FIELD POSITION | 27 | 30 |
| PLAYS | 66 | 65 |
| TOTAL YARDS | 342 | 334 |
| PLAYS | 57 | 56 |
| YARDS PER PLAY | 6 | 6 |
| AVAILABLE YARDS GAINED % | 52% | 53% |
| SUCCESSFUL PLAYS | 22 | 21 |
| SUCCESS RATE | 39% | 38% |
| TURNOVERS | 1 | 1 |
Indiana and Ohio State traded blows for 60 minutes on Saturday. Both offenses ran essentially the same number of plays (66 to 65) and averaged the same number of yards per play (six), as the Hoosiers finished with eight more yards than the Buckeyes. Even the deeper, more advanced metrics split down the middle: available yards gained (52% to 53%), successful plays (22 to 21) and success rate (39% to 38%).
Note: Success rate is how frequently an offense gains 50% of the necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.
The game flow also reflected a balance between the teams. Indiana led for 29:11, while Ohio State led for 23:36. Time of possession? A 30-second difference. Turnovers? One apiece. Average field position? Within three yards. Both teams even had a missed field goal, too!
In a matchup this even, the margin shrinks to a single drive, a single decision, a single mistake. On Saturday, Indiana made one more play than Ohio State. That was the story of the Big Ten Championship Game – a razor-thin contest where the Buckeyes landed on the wrong side of the coin flip. If these teams meet again, the game will hinge on which side can finally break free from the ebb and flow and assert its dominance, and I’m confident that team will be the Buckeyes.
PLAY LIKE A CHAMPION TODAY. OK, OK, it's fun to dunk on Notre Dame, I'll admit it. Shots at the Irish aside, ESPN's Bill Connelly shared the reasons each of the 12 College Football Playoff teams will or will not win the national championship this season. I've included his analysis for Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech below:
Indiana
Why they will win it all: No known weakness. Are you a "defense wins championships" person? Indiana ranks second in defensive SP+, third in points allowed per drive and sixth in success rate* allowed. The Hoosiers just held Ohio State to its lowest point total in 18 games. Do you like defensive disruption? They're second in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and seventh in sack rate.
Need to know that your title pick has a QB it can count on in big moments? Fernando Mendoza is third in Total QBR and is, if betting odds are to be believed (and they usually are), the Heisman favorite by a large margin. And in Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., he has maybe the most elite receiving duo in the country outside of Columbus. Does it help to know what a team can ground-and-pound when necessary, or stop its opponent from doing the same? IU's offense ranks fourth in rushing success rate and 17th in yards per carry (not including sacks); its defense ranks fourth and 12th, respectively, in the same categories.
Third downs are important -- what about those? Indiana is first nationally in third-down conversion rate (55.8%) and second on third-down conversion rate allowed (28.1%).
Have they come through away from home? Yeah, I'd say winning at Iowa City and Eugene probably qualifies.
There's a reason why Indiana is the last unbeaten team standing. This team has aced every test it has been given in 2025.
Why they won't: Random big-play issues. When you allow just 4.6 yards per play and 0.9 points per drive, you don't have a serious issue with big plays. But a few teams did still have some success creating chunk plays.
Old Dominion scored on touchdown runs of 78 and 75 yards. Illinois hit on a 59-yard TD pass. Penn State had a 59-yard run and 43-yard pass. Kennesaw State had three completions of 30-plus yards. Hell, 98 of Ohio State's 322 yards came on two completions (though one was a fruitless end-of-game Hail Mary), as did 93 of Maryland's 293 yards. Even if it's not a season-long issue, there are plenty of ultra-explosive offenses in this playoff field, and a couple of glitches could become extremely costly.
Ohio State
Why they will win it all: They're Ohio State. The Buckeyes are the defending champions, they have at least two of the five or so best players in the sport (receiver Jeremiah Smith, safety Caleb Downs), their quarterback (Julian Sayin) has the highest Total QBR of any playoff QB, their offense ranks fourth in points per drive (despite having played four games against top-20 defenses, per SP+), and their defense ranks first in defensive SP+ and second in points per drive and yards per play.
They have all the components you could ask for, and despite Saturday night's loss to Indiana, they enter this year's CFP with better form and fewer question marks. And hell, after 11 straight comfortable wins, even the loss might be beneficial from the standpoints of focus and motivation. This is the shortest "why they will win it" section in this entire piece, but it's also the most definitive. We know how good they are.
Why they won't: Cautious programming. Against the best defense he has faced in his footballing life, Sayin completed 21 of 29 passes for 258 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Granted, those numbers were boosted by the late Hail Mary completion, but he mostly kept the ball out of harm's way, and in nearly his first genuinely high-consequence drive all season, he drove the Buckeyes 70 yards inside the Indiana 5 in the third quarter and 81 yards inside the 10 in the fourth.
Sayin came up just short on a fourth-down QB sneak on the former drive, however, which evidently prompted Ryan Day to go shockingly conservative on the latter. On fourth-and-1 from the 9, Day elected to attempt a game-tying field goal, one that, even had Jayden Fielding made it, would have given the Hoosiers ample time to drive down for a field goal of their own. Fielding missed it. Ball don't lie.
Day and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline have played it safe with Sayin for most of the season, easing him in, dialing up mostly quick passes and programming him to throw the ball away if he doesn't see what he wants. When you have a star-studded receiving corps and an incredible defense backing you up, that makes sense. But you might need to dial the risk factor up in big moments, and it sure felt like Ohio State failed in that regard Saturday night. Will they put their faith in Sayin when it matters the most? Will he back up the faith if they do?
Georgia
Why they will win it all: They're mean again. Georgia was maddening to watch early this season. Kirby Smart's Bulldogs almost seemed to come out without a game plan, playing things as vanilla as possible, taking some shots from the opponent -- and frequently falling behind into the second half -- before rallying. It worked, aside from a loss to Alabama, but it made for some underwhelming performances (and undue stress for fans).
Over the past four games, however, the defense has locked in, allowing a paltry 7.3 points per game, 4.3 yards per play and 2.6 yards per carry, not including sacks. The Dawgs have forced three-and-outs 41% of the time in this span (10th nationally), and they've allowed touchdowns on just 17% of red zone trips (second).
In Saturday's SEC championship game, a 28-7 win over Alabama, the Dawgs painted their masterpiece. They allowed just 209 total yards (3.8 per play), including just 20 non-sack rushing yards. On Bama's first eight possessions, the Tide punted seven times, turned the ball over once and finished just one drive in Georgia territory. They finally moved the ball late but never got closer than 14 points.
After some listless play early on, Georgia is defending as well as it has since the 2022 season, its last national title year.
Why they won't: A lack of big plays. Despite having faced a schedule featuring five top-20 defenses (per SP+), Georgia's overall offensive numbers have been solid. It is 14th in offensive SP+, 23rd in points per drive and 22nd in success rate. The run game probably hasn't helped as much as Smart would prefer, but short, quick passing has bridged the efficiency gap, and the Dawgs have scored at least 28 points nine times. That's more than enough with the way the defense is playing.
While efficiency levels have been solid, Georgia struggles to create chunk plays. The Dawgs rank 130th in yards per successful play; quarterback Gunner Stockton averages just 10.7 yards per completion, and that sinks to 9.5 per completion against top-20 defenses. He almost never puts the ball in harm's way, but safety comes with a price, and UGA is not built to move the ball quickly and aggressively if (or when) the need arises.
Texas Tech
Why they will win it all: They have the best front six in the country. Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the nation. Fellow linebacker Ben Roberts (two interceptions and a pass breakup) was the Big 12 championship game's MVP. David Bailey is second in the nation in sacks and third in TFLs. Romello Height is 16th in sacks. And despite losing Skyler Gill-Howard to a midseason injury, tackles Lee Hunter and Anthony Holmes Jr. have prevented any semblance of a drop-off in the middle.
The secondary is good, too, but the front six has been transcendent in Lubbock. The Red Raiders rank third nationally in success rate allowed (31.3%), third in yards allowed per play (4.0) and first in yards allowed per carry, not including sacks (3.3). They've allowed more than two offensive touchdowns just once all year (to Kansas State in a game they still won by 23), and they've allowed less than 4.0 yards per play eight times in 13 games. Over the previous 15 seasons, Tech's average defensive SP+ ranking was 83.0; thanks to first-year coordinator Shiel Wood and a transformational transfer class, the Red Raiders enter their first CFP ranked fourth. And since a 26-22 loss to Arizona State -- suffered without starting quarterback Behren Morton -- the offense has averaged 40.8 points per game. This band of pirates is playing utterly merciless ball at the moment.
Why they won't: Red zone offense. Tech's offensive numbers have been good, especially considering Morton was in and out of the lineup in the first two months. The Red Raiders are 15th in points per drive, and they can lean heavily into whatever opponents can't stop. Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams grind out 145 rushing yards per game (5.5 per carry), and four receivers -- all 6-foot-2 or taller -- have caught between 46 and 55 passes.
They've scored TDs on just 56% of red zone trips, however, which is 101st in the nation. Against three top-20 defenses (Utah, plus BYU twice), the Red Raiders turned 14 trips into just five TDs (36%). By settling for field goal attempts, they let BYU hang around into the second half of both their meetings despite total defensive domination, and the level of competition will only rise from here.
Why will Ohio State win it all?
They're Ohio State.
Enough said!
BO JACKSON, FRESHMAN ALL-AMERICAN. This week, On3 named Bo Jackson a freshman All-American. The Ohio State running back has been a breakout star for the Buckeyes this season, recording 1,035 yards and five touchdowns on 168 carries. He is the fifth Ohio State true freshman to run for over 1,000 yards in a single season, joining an impressive group of Robert Smith, Maurice Clarett, J.K. Dobbins and TreVeyon Henderson.
NEW: 2025 On3 College Football True Freshman All-American Team
— On3 (@On3sports) December 8, 2025
(via @CharlesPower) https://t.co/N4REo1wpJa pic.twitter.com/W7cp13Oaa6
Congratulations to Bo! He knows!
NEW DUBCAST. Today's Eleven Dubcast welcomes back Kyle Jones to discuss the many offensive factors that led to the first loss for Ohio State this season and what the Buckeyes must do to bounce back for the College Football Playoff. As we all prepare for the weeks ahead without Buckeye football to look forward to on Saturdays, new episodes of the Dubcast will release on Monday, Wednesday and Friday mornings.
SONG OF THE DAY. "Bellbottoms" - The Jon Spencer Blues Explosion.
CUT TO THE CHASE. Colts sign 44-year-old Philip Rivers to practice squad... 16,000 fossil footprints in central Bolivia reveal dinosaur behavior... Oreo is bringing zero-sugar cookies to the US... Australia's social media ban for kids under 16 goes into effect.
