Welcome to the Skull Session.
The best thing about being 1-0...
1-0 pic.twitter.com/lTUSr6m0LH
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) September 2, 2025
Have a good Wednesday.
THE COMPUTERS! It's Wednesday. You know what that means. The Computers tell all!
This week, we'll use ESPN's College Football Power Index, SP+ and Matchup Predictor to examine what The Computers think about the Buckeyes, who ranked No. 1 in both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll on Tuesday.
But...
Before we look at The Computers, I have to share this brilliant piece of agenda-setting from ESPN's Heather Dinich, who ranked LSU ahead of Ohio State in her first College Football Playoff predictions for the 2025 season.
No. 1 - LSU Tigers (1-0)
Why they could be here: Throw out the preseason rankings and everything you thought you knew about the best teams in college football. Nobody made a bigger Week 1 statement, on the road against a team capable of winning the ACC and competing for a spot in the playoff. The committee starts from scratch, and LSU showed all of the components it looks for -- from a Heisman hopeful in quarterback Garrett Nussmeier to a defense that proved it can play at an elite level.
Why they could be lower: While the committee insists it starts from scratch, some might give the reigning national champion Ohio State the benefit of the doubt -- whether it's intentional or not. The Buckeyes played a complete game under first-year starting quarterback Julian Sayin. It was also a clean game, with only two penalties and no turnovers, plus a defensive effort that was the difference in the game.
Need to know: If LSU and Clemson don't lock up playoff spots as conference champions, Saturday's LSU win could be critical for seeding in the at-large spots. The higher seed gets home-field advantage, and the top four seeds earn first-round byes. Even if LSU doesn't win the SEC -- and Clemson wins the ACC -- there could be a scenario in which LSU is still ranked ahead because of Week 1.
No. 2 - Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0)
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes beat one of the SEC's top teams, and they did it with a first-year starting quarterback, but it was at home against a Texas team that didn't live up to its preseason ranking.
Why they could be higher: Ohio State and LSU had similar performances in that they won with defense and faced offenses that struggled, so it would probably boil down to which opponent the committee thought was more talented.
Need to know: The Buckeyes are projected to win each of their remaining games, and they have the best chance in the FBS to win out (11.2%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Nittany Lions are loaded and hired former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. PSU coach James Franklin said his program wants to "change the narrative" about its inability to win the biggest games.
But it was at home against a Texas team that didn't live up to its preseason ranking...
You mean the same Texas team that remained No. 1 in ESPN's FPI?
The Computers tell all!
College Football Power Index
| TEAM | RECORD | FPI | WIN OUT | WIN CONF | MAKE CFP | WIN CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEXAS | 0-1 | 23.2 | 8.2% | 27.4% | 69.7% | 15.1% |
| GEORGIA | 1-0 | 22.9 | 4% | 27.4% | 80.6% | 17.9% |
| OHIO STATE | 1-0 | 21.2 | 11.5% | 34.6% | 81.6% | 13.5% |
| OLE MISS | 1-0 | 20.6 | 3.1% | 17.1% | 65.6% | 10.3% |
| PENN STATE | 1-0 | 19.7 | 5.9% | 23.3% | 58.4% | 7.3% |
While I scoff at Dinich's prediction — and the current FPI calculations — I commend Connelly's SP+, which had Ohio State as the No. 1 team all offseason and has the Buckeyes No. 1 this week.
SP+
| TEAM | RECORD | RATING | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO STATE | 1-0 | 25.4 | 36.5 (11) | 11.3 (1) | 0.3 (12) |
| GEORGIA | 1-0 | 25.4 | 37.9 (7) | 13 (3) | 0.6 (1) |
| OREGON | 1-0 | 24.4 | 39.5 (3) | 15.6 (9) | 0.5 (3) |
| OLE MISS | 1-0 | 23.9 | 37.2 (8) | 13.6 (5) | 0.3 (7) |
| LSU | 1-0 | 20.8 | 38.4 (5) | 17.7 (19) | 0.1 (48) |
Beyond rankings, The Computers view Ohio State as the favorite in the remainder of its regular-season matchups.
Matchup Predictor
| OPPONENT | DATE | LOCATION | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|---|
| GRAMBLING | 9/6 | COLUMBUS, OH | OHIO STATE 99% |
| OHIO | 9/13 | COLUMBUS, OH | OHIO STATE 95.3% |
| WASHINGTON | 9/27 | SEATTLE, WA | OHIO STATE 77.8% |
| MINNESOTA | 10/4 | COLUMBUS, OH | OHIO STATE 91.8% |
| ILLINOIS | 10/11 | CHAMPAIGN, IL | OHIO STATE 81.6% |
| WISCONSIN | 10/18 | MADISON, WI | OHIO STATE 81.2% |
| PENN STATE | 11/1 | COLUMBUS, OH | OHIO STATE 61.1% |
| PURDUE | 11/8 | WEST LAFAYETTE, IN | OHIO STATE 94% |
| UCLA | 11/15 | COLUMBUS, OH | OHIO STATE 97.2% |
| RUTGERS | 11/22 | COLUMBUS, OH | OHIO STATE 90.3% |
| MICHIGAN | 11/29 | ANN ARBOR, MI | OHIO STATE 70.7% |
Movements from the preseason to Week 1
- Ohio: 96.6% → 95.3%
- Washington: 77.6% → 77.8%
- Minnesota: 89.6% → 91.8%
- Illinois: 80.8% → 81.6%
- Wisconsin: 80.9% → 81.2%
- Penn State: 57.2% → 61.1%
- Purdue: 95.9% → 94%
- UCLA: 92.9% → 97.2%
- Rutgers: 87.1% → 90.3%
- Michigan: 63.1% → 70.7%
Who would have guessed that after Week 1, the computers would give Ohio State a better chance to beat Penn State and Michigan but a worse chance to beat Ohio and Purdue? Wild times.
“WE’VE GOT MILES TO GO.” Ohio State beat the No. 1 team in America last week, yet Ryan Day shared in his Tuesday press conference that the Buckeyes still have “miles to go” to reach their potential.
“The competitiveness, the grittiness, I think you saw that on Saturday,” Day said when asked about Ohio State’s identity. “I thought the way we tackled, I thought the way we blocked, I thought the way we ran, you could see all of that. That’s a great start. Was it all perfect? No. Do we need to play even harder? Yes. The execution, the details, the fundamentals — we’ve got miles to go. It’s not gonna be good enough for where we need to go. But that’s certainly something to build off of. And if that’s gonna be our identity, then we’re gonna have a chance.”
Again, Ohio State beat the No. 1 team in America… and it still has miles to go?
The team has the chance to be special.
SUPER (8) SAYIN. Julian Sayin earned a national award for his efforts in the season opener.
Following an afternoon in which Sayin completed 13 of 20 passes for 126 yards and one touchdown, the Davey O’Brien Foundation named him one of the Davey O’Brien Great 8 alongside Appalachian State’s AJ Swann, Auburn’s Jackson Arnold, Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Miami’s Carson Beck, South Florida’s Byrum Brown and Utah’s Devon Dampier.
Week One @daveyobrien Great 8 Honor, @juliansayin2 pic.twitter.com/qAqhAp21NR
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) September 2, 2025
When asked on Tuesday about Sayin’s performance against Texas, Ryan Day said the Ohio State quarterback played well, especially considering it was his first start against the top-ranked Longhorns.
“He graded out over 80 percent,” Day said, explaining that Sayin was one of Ohio State’s Champions. “His adjusted completion percentage with a few drops was pretty good. We felt like he took care of the ball, made some good throws. I’d like to think that if we had made a few plays for him earlier in the game, maybe it would have gone a different direction. But I don’t think he ever flinched. Good start. A lot of football to go, though.”
Julian Sayin plays football like he is listening to Maroon 5 in his AirPods
— Hamp (@Ron_Hamp) August 30, 2025
As Ohio State moves on from Texas to an FCS opponent in Grambling, Day said he wants to see Sayin lead a more “explosive” offense. He’s confident that it will happen, as the Longhorns had “very good team speed going sideline to sideline,” something the Tigers — and many other opponents — won’t have.
“We have to be more explosive,” Day said. “We need to get the ball out in space and do those things. But that’s all part of the journey with this group. The first goal was just to win the (Texas) game and find a way to do it.”
THIS AND THAT™. I haven’t done a This and That™ in a while. Why not do it now?
You know the drill.
Ohio State named two Players of the Game from its win over Texas: Jermaine Mathews Jr. on defense and C.J. Hicks on special teams.
Defensive : @Jr2Maine pic.twitter.com/7WmM7b3feu
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) August 31, 2025
Special Teams : @imcjhicks pic.twitter.com/hdpm8oEVh6
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) August 31, 2025
The Eleven Warriors staff continued its tradition of honoring the Three Stars of the Game following the Ohio State win. We selected Arvell Reese, Mathews and Carnell Tate as the Buckeyes with the best performances on Saturday.
STARS OF THE GAME: TEXAS
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) August 31, 2025
Arvell Reese: 9 tackles, 1 sack
Jermaine Mathews Jr.: 3 tackles, 1 INT, 1 PBU
Carnell Tate: 2 catches, 49 yards, 1 TDhttps://t.co/qaYgzyyWb2 pic.twitter.com/twHbeFzfv9
I have been a Nate Bargatze fan since his first TV special, The Tennessee Kid, arrived on Netflix in March 2019. Since then, I’ve seen his three other specials, The Greatest Average American, Hello World and Your Friend, Nate Bargatze, and attended three of his live shows. As you can tell, I love his material, so when I saw his creative team post a vlog from his recent visit to Columbus (and Ohio State!), you know I had to share it with you all.
Here’s a clip that, one, I meant to share earlier in the week, and two, sums up the Ohio State vs. Texas game well:
Trench work pic.twitter.com/HhCzwxsnCE
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) August 30, 2025
That's all, folks!
DAILY DUBCAST. Today's Eleven Dubcast welcomes back Dan Hope to review the snap count totals from Ohio State's win over Texas and examine some of the more intriguing tallies, such as Max Klare playing just the third-most snaps among the Buckeyes' tight ends.
SONG OF THE DAY. “Changes” - Black Sabbath.
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