It’s all on the line Saturday in Columbus.
 |
|
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES |
|
11-0 (8-0 B1G) ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
|
|
|
NOON – SATURDAY, NOV. 26 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OH |
|
|
|
FOX FOX SPORTS GO |
The Horseshoe plays host to a contest that couldn’t get much bigger as far as regular-season games go. Both holding undefeated records for the first time in 16 years, Ohio State and Michigan have all their goals waiting on the other side of a rivalry win in the 118th edition of The Game.
Beyond the obvious bragging rights that come with college football’s most tenuous rivalry, a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game is at stake. Given that either team will be a massive betting favorite over its opponent in that contest, a win on Saturday likely means a trip to the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State seeks vengeance for last year’s loss, its first to Michigan in 10 years, and the Wolverines will try to prove that a new era has dawned in the storied all-time series.
As the game week gets underway in earnest, learn more about the team Ohio State has been waiting 12 months to get its hands on.
No. 1 defense in the country
Michigan lost the No. 2 overall NFL draft pick and single-season sacks leader from last year’s defense in Aidan Hutchinson. It also lost another star pass rusher in second-round draft pick David Ojabo. That duo alone greatly impacted Ohio State’s 2021 loss in The Game, as the pair combined for four sacks.
But despite both players departing, not to mention the loss of 2021 defensive coordinator Michael Macdonald, Michigan still holds the No. 1 total defense in the nation this season. Under first-year DC Jesse Minter and co-defensive coordinator Steve Clinkscale, Michigan is giving up an average of just 241.3 yards per game to opponents. That’s more than 17 yards fewer per game than the second-best unit (Illinois). Maryland and Illinois are the only teams to gain 300 or more yards of total offense against the Wolverines this season, and Michigan has held three opponents under 200.
Georgia is the only program averaging fewer points to opponents per game in 2022, and by a fraction of a point. The Wolverines rank second in the FBS in scoring defense, with an average of 11.7 points allowed per game. Michigan’s held four teams to single-digit point totals, and the Terps are the only team to put up 20 or more on the Wolverines thus far.
Michigan is top five in both rushing and passing defense in 2022. The Wolverines have limited opponents to just 79.6 yards per game on the ground (No. 2 in the nation) and 161.7 through the air (No. 5). In every major statistical category, Michigan will have the best defense Ohio State has faced this season.
Illinois went for it on 4th-and-1.
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 19, 2022
No. 3 @UMichFootball's D wasn't having it. pic.twitter.com/bx5CsMOPYq
Regarding individual performers, edge rusher Mike Morris has been a standout for Michigan this year with 7.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss. But the 6-foot-6 lineman suffered an injury against Nebraska two weeks ago and missed this past weekend’s Illinois game. The hope from the Wolverines' coaching staff is that Morris could return for the regular-season finale.
At linebacker, Junior Colson has 27 more tackles (73) than the next-best Wolverine, and his six tackles for loss are second only to Morris. In the secondary, Rod Moore leads Michigan with three interceptions this season, and DJ Turner has a team-high eight pass breakups so far.
Injuries to star running backs
Buckeye fans don’t need (or want) a reminder of what Michigan did to Ohio State on the ground last season. In the Wolverines’ first rivalry win in 10 years, they ran the ball down the Buckeyes’ throat to the tune of 297 yards and six touchdowns
Unfortunately for the scarlet and gray, even after losing Hassan Haskins (who had five rushing scores against the Buckeyes last year), the Michigan run game is every bit as good this year, if not better. The Wolverines have the fourth-best rushing offense in the country in 2022, averaging 243.8 yards per game. Michigan has rushed for at least 250 yards in five games this season, topped the 400-yard mark against Penn State and has five contests with at least five rushing touchdowns.
But there’s a BIG caveat headed into Saturday’s matchup.
Blake Corum, who ranks fifth in the FBS with an average of 132.5 rushing yards per game (1,457 rush yards in total), suffered what appeared to be a severe knee injury toward the end of the first half against Illinois. The nation’s second-place leader in rushing touchdowns (18) did come back out in the second half but only took two snaps before being sidelined the rest of the way.
A significant play here:
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 19, 2022
Blake Corum loses fumble and leaves game with injury.
Let's hope the star Michigan RB is OK. pic.twitter.com/AaRQ7nwAXg
Corum will continue to be evaluated as the week progresses, but if the Wolverines’ best offensive player isn’t at 100%, it could be a serious blow to the Michigan run game. Not to mention, he’s not the only Michigan running back dealing with injury issues.
UMs Blake Corum using his NIL money to donate turkeys for Thanksgiving in Ypsilanti a second straight year
— angelique (@chengelis) November 20, 2022
Regarding his knee: Its good. Ill be fine. Ill be back pic.twitter.com/AeC5T7OzKB
Sophomore Donovan Edwards, whose 6.7 yards per carry are even better than Corum’s average, has only taken two carries over the past two weeks as he deals with his own health issues. Edwards didn’t play against Illinois, but if Corum isn’t himself on Saturday, Michigan could undoubtedly use a big day from its No. 2 rushing option.
The run game is the focal point of the Michigan offense. Given its success against Ohio State in that department last year, there’s little doubt Michigan will hammer the run again on Saturday, even if neither Corum nor Edwards is fully healthy.
Mediocre pass attack
As good as Michigan is on the ground, its pass attack has been far less potent.
Five-star prospect J.J. McCarthy officially took the reins from Cade McNamara as the Wolverines’ starter early in the season. Still, the No. 25 overall 2021 recruit has hardly turned the Michigan offense into a high-flying air raid. Not that he’s needed to thus far.
Michigan ranks 99th in the country in average passing yards per game, fifth-worst in the Big Ten, and it’s only thrown 16 touchdown passes as a team. The Wolverines have been limited to less than 170 passing yards on five occasions this season, and they’ve only thrown for 300 yards or more twice.
J.J. and No. 3 @UMichFootball face @IlliniFootball's talented secondary today.#B1Gstats pic.twitter.com/fkHtE9UfL2
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 19, 2022
Michigan’s passing performance in last year’s rivalry win wasn’t all that impressive, as the Wolverines finished with just 190 yards, no scores and an interception through the air. Perhaps McCarthy won’t need to reinvent the wheel for Michigan to assert its will on offense, but the Buckeyes may find some confidence in the fact that Harbaugh and company don’t possess a unit that can pass the ball as effectively as it can run it.
However, McCarthy and company will still present plenty of danger, especially given the second-year quarterback’s mobility. McCarthy has 213 yards and three scores on 49 rushing attempts for Michigan this season, and Ohio State has been gashed by the quarterback run a few times before in 2022.
Another positive for the Michigan passing offense is that it hasn’t been turnover-prone this season. The Wolverines have thrown three interceptions as an offense through 11 games, and McCarthy’s only tossed two.
Second straight Big Ten title game berth with win
Before last season, Michigan had never appeared in a Big Ten Championship Game. With a win on Saturday, the Wolverines will make it two straight December trips to Lucas Oil Stadium.
Had 2022 marked the first division-less season in the Big Ten, Ohio State and Michigan would both have already clinched berths in the conference title game, ensuring that they’d play two weeks in a row before bowl season begins. The two rivals were undefeated before playing each other for the first time since 2006, a matchup of the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the nation that earned the name “The Game of the Century.”
The stakes are similar on Saturday, as Michigan can shut Ohio State out of Indianapolis for the second straight season after the Buckeyes’ four-year run as Big Ten champs from 2017-20. At the same juncture, the Buckeyes can make sure the Wolverines don’t have a shot to win back-to-back Big Ten titles for the first time since 2003 and ‘04 – with the latter being a shared crown during the pre-championship game era.
Heading into last year’s rivalry game, Michigan hadn’t won an outright Big Ten title since 2003. This weekend, the Wolverines are at the doorstep of sending Harbaugh to his second straight conference championship contest. They would be heavily favored over any team that makes it out of the war-torn west division.
Questionable strength of schedule
During a down year in the Big Ten in terms of depth, this section should start with a caveat that Ohio State’s schedule was hardly comprised of top-flight opposition from week to week, either. But objectively, it sure was better than Michigan’s.
The archrivals did play six of the same conference foes (Penn State, Michigan State, Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland and Iowa). Outside of that, though, Michigan played an unquestionably weak non-conference schedule with Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn kicking off the Wolverines’ season in consecutive weeks.
According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan played the second-weakest non-conference schedule in FBS this season (home games against Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn); only UCLA played a weaker non-conference slate.
— Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) November 20, 2022
In retrospect, Ohio State’s season-opening matchup with Notre Dame doesn’t look quite as glorious. However, the Irish still stand far above any opponent Michigan faced before starting its Big Ten schedule.
Michigan has only played one ranked team (Penn State) before this weekend’s matchup. Its second-best win is this past Saturday’s victory over Illinois, who entered at 7-3 behind a surprisingly successful season from Bret Bielema and company. But even the Illini’s luster had waned by that point after back-to-back losses. Still, Illinois nearly left Ann Arbor with a win, as Michigan needed a field goal in the final few seconds of action to retake the lead and stave off an upset by just two points.
While Ohio State’s schedule isn’t leaps and bounds ahead of Michigan’s slate, the Buckeyes could be a jarring jump up in competition. That’s especially true on the road, where Michigan has only played Iowa, Indiana and Rutgers this season.
