Big Ten championship rings won’t be the only hardware on the line when No. 1 Ohio State plays No. 2 Indiana on Saturday night in Indianapolis.
The Heisman Trophy race will likely be decided inside Lucas Oil Stadium as two of the top three favorites for the award, Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, go head-to-head, giving each of them a chance to make a major final statement to Heisman voters.
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia currently has the second-best odds to win the award, just behind Mendoza and just ahead of Sayin, but he won’t play this weekend. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, who has the fourth-best odds at a distant 40-to-1 (per DraftKings Sportsbook), doesn’t play this weekend either. That leaves the spotlight squarely on Sayin and Mendoza as the last two realistic candidates for the Heisman with a final chance to make a statement to voters before ballots are cast this weekend.
Given that Mendoza has the best odds to win the award entering conference championship weekend, he’ll be a safe bet to win the Heisman if he leads Indiana to a win over Ohio State on Saturday. There wouldn’t be a bigger “Heisman Moment” than leading Indiana to its first Big Ten championship in 58 years by beating the team that’s had the nation’s best defense – including the No. 1 passing defense – all year long.
But Sayin deserves the same credit if he leads Ohio State to victory against an Indiana team that’s also undefeated entering the Big Ten Championship Game, with a defense that ranks second only to the Buckeyes with 10.9 points allowed per game.
| Sayin | Stat | Mendoza |
|---|---|---|
| 78.9 | COMP. % | 72.0 |
| 9.37 | YARDS/ATT. | 9.41 |
| 255.4 | YARDS/GM | 229.8 |
| 30 | PASS TD | 32 |
| 5 | INT | 5 |
| 184.8 | QB RATING | 183.7 |
| 27 | RUSH YDS | 243 |
| 0 | RUSH TD | 6 |
| Underline denotes best in FBS | ||
Statistically, Sayin has been the most efficient quarterback in college football this season. He leads the nation with a mind-boggling completion percentage of 78.9%, putting him on pace to break the NCAA’s single-season record for completion percentage. He has the nation’s best quarterback rating at 184.8, though Mendoza is a close second at 183.7.
Mendoza has a very slight edge in passing yards per attempt (9.41 to 9.37) and passing touchdowns (32 to 30), while both QBs have thrown exactly five interceptions. He’s also done more as a runner than Sayin, rushing for 243 yards and six touchdowns while Sayin has just 27 rushing yards with no touchdown runs.
If this week’s All-Big Ten awards are an indication, Mendoza would likely win the Heisman over Sayin right now. The two arguments that have been most frequently used in Mendoza’s favor when comparing him against Sayin have been that he has less talent around him and that he’s had more “Heisman Moments.”
But while no one would argue that Ohio State doesn’t have the more talented roster than Indiana, including the nation’s best receiver tandem in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, Mendoza has two of college football’s best wideouts, too, in Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt. And while it’s true that Sayin hasn’t led a game-winning drive with the game on the line like Mendoza did against Penn State, that’s only because Ohio State has consistently dominated its competition – including the same Penn State team – and Sayin’s remarkably efficient passing is a major reason why the Buckeyes have done that.
A strong argument can be made in favor of either quarterback winning the Heisman, and both of them should be in New York next weekend, no matter what happens on Saturday night. But there’s a good chance all the arguments entering the game will be superseded by who shines brighter in their head-to-head matchup on the same night Heisman balloting opens, especially considering that matchup will also feature the nation’s top two defenses, will presumably be watched closely by the majority of Heisman voters and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff will be on the line.
That’s not to say that the Heisman should come down to one game, but rather that the margin between them is close enough that their performances in Indianapolis will likely be the deciding factor, as well as the fact that they’ll both be facing their toughest test of the season in the process.
If Mendoza has a productive game and leads Indiana to a win against an Ohio State defense that’s allowed just one quarterback (Illinois’ Luke Altmyer) to throw for 200-plus yards all season, there will be no denying his Heisman worthiness. Sayin, meanwhile, has a chance to end the season with back-to-back statement performances after leading Ohio State to its first win of the decade over Michigan last weekend with a 233-yard, three-touchdown game on a cold, snowy day in Ann Arbor.
Mendoza and Sayin haven’t met each other, but they’re both impressed by how each other has played this season, and they’re looking forward to the opportunity to compete against each other on Saturday.
“I really respect Julian,” Mendoza said this week. “He is so effective and he fits the offense perfectly. As a quarterback, I like to say that stats aren't everything, but I would say every quarterback prides himself on completion percentage, and his completion percentage is out of this world.”
“He's a great player, and seeing their tape and seeing them on TV, he's a really smart player, great decision-maker with the football, so really tough challenge,” Sayin said of Mendoza.
That said, both quarterbacks said they’re focused on trying to lead their team to a Big Ten championship rather than on trying to win the Heisman.
“We have a job to do and we have a goal to go win the Big Ten, so we're going to focus on that as a team,” Sayin said.
“I always try to stay as selfless as a team leader can be, and our main goal is to win the Big Ten Championship on Saturday and then go as far in the playoffs as we can,” Mendoza said Thursday during a Big Ten Network interview.
Ohio State players have made it clear who they think should win the Heisman. Smith, Tate, fellow wide receiver Brandon Inniss and defensive end Caden Curry are among the Buckeyes who have publicly stated that they think Sayin should be an easy choice for the award.
“I mean, duh,” Curry said after last week’s win at Michigan when asked if he thought Sayin should be the Heisman favorite. “He's just such a great player, such a smart player. He knows how to win.”
Considering that the Buckeyes are favored to win the game (though only by four points), Sayin’s Heisman odds (2-to-1 on DraftKings) might offer the best betting value entering the weekend. That said, Mendoza will be the best quarterback Ohio State has faced all year, so the Buckeyes know they’ll have to be at their best to win the Big Ten title and potentially propel Sayin to the Heisman in the process.
“He does a great job with his eyes. He can read coverage as well. So we're going to have to be on point on the back end for us, and it'll be a challenge,” Ohio State safety Caleb Downs said of Mendoza.
