Good teams win, great teams cover.
That's exactly what Ohio State did in a 34-16 win over Illinois yesterday, and that result has led to the Buckeyes being favored by over four touchdowns next weekend as OSU opens in the betting market as 28.5-point favorites over Wisconsin.
FanDuel published the opening line on Sunday following Ohio State's win and an embarrassing shutout loss for the Badgers at home to Iowa by a 37-0 final score. The outcome dropped Wisconsin to 2-4 on the season as supporters of the Badger football program grow increasingly frustrated with head coach Luke Fickell.
This is the largest spread between these schools since at least 1999 by a wide margin. The second-largest took shape in 2022 when the Buckeyes found themselves favored by 19 points at home — 9.5 points less than next weekend's current line — and ultimately won by a 52-21 final score.
The current spread also would tie the Ohio game for the second-highest OSU has seen this season if it remains as such to close. Ohio State's money line price tag of -10000 would be its highest so far this season, given sportsbooks refused to publish one for the Grambling State game.
The total opened at 41.5 points, which would be the lowest for any Buckeye football game so far this year if it holds. It would also serve as the second-lowest line for an over/under between OSU and Wisconsin since 1999, with only the 2004 meeting having a lower projection at 36.5 points. The Badgers won that game 24-13, which cashed the over by half a point.
Ohio State owns a 5-1 record against the spread this season, only failing to cover against the Bobcats by half a point. Conversely, Wisconsin owns merely a 2-4 record under such circumstances this year, only covering against Middle Tennessee State and Michigan. The Buckeyes have an 11-9 record against the spread since 1999 when facing the Badgers, but only a 3-5 record when playing Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium.
As for totals, Ohio State has now seen four take shape in its contests this season compared to just two overs. The same numbers can be said for the Badgers, having also contributed to three straight unders during their four-game losing streak. Eight overs have manifested between the schools since 1999 opposite 12 unders, six of which took shape across the eight games played in Madison.
OSU will kick off against Wisconsin next weekend at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
