The Big Reckoning

That is some headline, especially for a quarterback in the same draft class as C.J. Stroud and Heisman winner Bryce Young. Richardson? The guy who couldn’t steal an honorable mention designation among SEC quarterbacks? First overall? This is what passes for gambling bait now?

I'm not trying to be disrespectful, it's just that I watched a bunch of Florida games and am wondering if it's the same guy from those outings. They don't do cone drills or standing vertical leaps on Saturdays, so perhaps I have tunnel vision and am unfairly judging him based on "how he plays football" instead of obstacle courses.

Incredible athlete, decent QB awareness, nice arm. If the Browns hadn't already traded their next three 1st round picks for a sex pest who plays the same position I'm certain they would consider him.

No, I don't think Richardson should move to wide receiver, and before anyone jumps to conclusions about my rotting sports brain judging a QB best known for athletic prowess:

Lamar Jackson is a taller right-handed Michael Vick who reads coverages well and has thrived behind a junior high school offensive line. Watch how many NFL teams pass on him.

— Ramzy Nasrallah (@ramzy) December 30, 2017

The now-former NFL MVP does everything well, including throwing the football where his receivers' hands are with regularity. He was doing that in college on his way to the Heisman trophy podium. Richardson still has not done that yet. There is a loud, crusty contingent of myopic athletic quarterback judgers, but I don't attend their meetings.

Here's a sampling of the processed Richardson hype following last weekend's NFL combine:

Florida's Anthony Richardson is listed as having the highest relative athletic score amongst quarterbacks all-time pic.twitter.com/urawcEHxTA

— SumerSports (@sumersports) March 6, 2023

We have a Cam Newton comp! I have no memory of Newton’s supernatural combine recital, only his Heisman performance - and how he willed his team to an undefeated national championship season.

Forget about the cones, jumping drills and hand measurements, let's compare the footbally stuff:

Alas, Newton had significantly more completions, yards and touchdowns than Richardson on 57 fewer attempts. There is no football basis for comparing Newton and Richardson.

Speaking of not close, Richardson completed his college career with 24 touchdown passes. Stroud had 26 passing touchdowns in just bowl games and vs. teams from the state of Michigan. Richardson and Stroud were playing two different sports the past two years.

But this isn't about Stroud vs. Richardson, or even the fact Justin Fields' employer currently owns the No.1 pick and any associated Buckeye salt that might accompany a Bears Need a New QB discussion.

It's about the NFL scouts, legitimate evaluations and gamesmanship among talent assessors.

Interesting comp from a GM in Indy this week, who likened Vols star WR Jalin Hyatt to Chris Olave.

Hyatt had a big Combine, running 4.41, jumping 40 inches and leading all WRs with an 11-3 broad. He tied for second in the nation with 15 TD catches last season.

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) March 5, 2023

I don't know if Jordan Schultz is fishing for social media engagement, carrying distortion water for some GM or agent or just shitposting for the sake of shitposting - but Hyatt jumped both a foot higher and eight inches farther than Olave did at the Combine. The only reason to compare him to Olave is to push the illusion of comparable route and receiving talent.

Olave's route tree has every single branch on it - the flat, comeback, out, corner, nine, post, dig, curl, slant. He, as you fondly remember, can run every route and beat every coverage. He can catch every pass in every situation. If pressed, he could probably do it on a unicycle while balancing a stack of plates like Red Panda. That should be a Combine drill.

You just read the first paragraph in the history of Chris Olave that didn’t have the word smooth in it. Big day for you. Anyway, Hyatt is not in Olave's galaxy. They’re completely different receivers.

It’s not because he's bad. Olave lapped the field twice in Wide Receiver Sciences while still in college, and over multiple, consistent seasons. Any scout or GM would know that and fail a polygraph suggesting otherwise.

Hyatt also has exactly one great season to his credit, after a few unremarkable ones. Olave has been terrific on repeat. There's no basis for comparison.

Let's make this exercise this less homery and pivot to the large fella pictured atop the article. Pre-draft hype is not always a function of Combine performances and measurements, but putting too much stock in one individual frame taken out of an epic three-hour movie:

.@OhioStateFB @dawandj79 is a solar eclipse with feet. Blocks out the sun and everything else #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/axq6gS4n6A

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) March 4, 2023

Baldinger is very good at breaking down the technical stuff, and there's no denying the fact that Dawand Jones is very large. You don't gotta hear both sides to that debate because the other one is wrong.

It's what he says at the outset of that highlight: Just one play against (Georgia DT) Jalen Carter. Just one play. Jones was on the field for 961 snaps as a Buckeye. That was one of them.

Sep 3, 2022: C.J. Stroud avoids pressure from Notre Dame's Rylie Mills during the 3rd quarter. © Kyle Robertson-USA TODAY NETWORK

Making Carter look small is impressive, but the real shine in that one snap was making him look terrestrial. The problem is many of Jones’ other 960 snaps didn’t shine quite as bright. He played on a line that threw a lot on 3rd and short. Those situations can turn into 3rd and long when, say, a lineman commits a false start penalty. Not naming names.

This is insight you glean from watching entire seasons, not just a couple of cherry-picked highlights. And that is significantly more relevant and valuable than watching Combine drills.

The Buckeyes' offensive line featured two all-B1G 1st teamers in 2022, but Jones wasn't one of them. Whenever Josh Fryar filled in for him, there was no noticeable decline. I hope Big Thanos makes 20 Pro Bowls over the next two decades, earns the world’s largest mustard blazer and bust in Canton while enjoying a football reputation that shifts to outcomes from wingspan. Go Dawand! (not before the snap, please)

The main knock on COREY Linsley - the NFL's best center over the past decade - was his arms WERen’t long. His Combine drill smut and tape measurements weren’t sexy enough.

Big is nice. Fast is good. Combine tests don’t account for in-game skill, mettle or competitive resilience. And consistency wins out over a 17-game season, which was why NFL scouts should have talked to anyone in Central Ohio wearing cargo shorts and a No.5 jersey back in 2013.

That’s when Corey Linsley and Andrew Norwell both received matching bottom-of-the-roster-or-practice-squad pre-Draft forecasts. Here was my highly-refined talent evaluation for both of them:

They do everything quite well for 60 minutes. Both absolutely hate losing. Draft them.

The main knock on Linsley - the NFL's best center over the past decade - was his arms weren’t long, which is to say his Combine drill smut and tape measurements just weren’t sexy enough. Norwell, who went undrafted, only threw up 225 on the bench 22 times. Weenie arms, at least for a guy who is supposed to be bigger than all his teammates.

Both were named to the NFL’s All-Pro 1st team. Scouts: It’s tackle football, not a gun show.

Billy Price and Pat Elflein followed them and received significantly higher grades placing them in the Eventual Starter realm, which, yes they both started NFL football games. Neither reached Linsley/Norwell levels of contract extensions or accolades, but neither was a reckless draft pick.

What’s reckless is suggesting a quarterback who could not throw footballs with consistency or accuracy over two seasons in Gainesville is good enough to merit the top overall pick based on Combine performance.

RELATED The Graduate (2022)

Who knows, perhaps Richardson will abruptly solve how to dissect coverages and consistently throw into NFL windows after not being able to hit the broad side of a house adorned with much larger college ones. It would make for an exciting storyline for one lucky team.

And maybe Dawand will become the second coming of Orlando Pace. Just not in Columbus.