The eyes of the college football world will be on Columbus on Saturday afternoon.
Among a handful of teams that still truly control their own destiny in the race to make this year’s College Football Playoff, two of them will go head-to-head at Ohio Stadium this weekend as the fourth-ranked Buckeyes host the seventh-ranked Spartans in the penultimate game of the regular season for both teams.
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| #7 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS |
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9-1 (6-1 B1G) ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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NOON – SATURDAY, NOV. 20 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OHIO |
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ABC WATCH ESPN |
The Big Ten East lead and playoff hopes will be on the line as both teams enter the game with 9-1 records. Several of this year’s biggest stars in college football will be on the field as C.J. Stroud, TreVeyon Henderson and Ohio State’s star-studded receiver trio of Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead the Buckeye offense while Kenneth Walker III, the nation’s leading rusher, leads the Michigan State offense. ESPN’s College GameDay will be on campus before the game, and it will be the final time this year that the Buckeyes play in front of their home fans at Ohio Stadium.
Games like this, as Ryan Day said Tuesday, are “why you come to Ohio State.”
“This is what it’s all about at the end of November and having GameDay in town and a top-10 matchup,” Day said.
The Headlines
Big Ten East lead on the line
Whoever wins Saturday’s game at Ohio Stadium will be in position to win the Big Ten East title with just one week to go in the regular season.
Ohio State is currently in sole possession of first place in the East as the only team in the Big Ten that hasn’t lost a conference game this season, but a Michigan State win would position the Spartans to make the Big Ten Championship Game with the head-to-head tiebreaker over Ohio State and Michigan. While the Wolverines are technically tied for second place in the Big Ten East right now, they’ll have to root for the Buckeyes to beat their not-so-little brother this weekend, which would give Michigan (if it beats Maryland this week) a chance to earn the Big Ten Championship Game berth with a win over Ohio State next week.
While the winner of Saturday’s game will move one step closer to making the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football Playoff, the loser will be all but eliminated – Michigan State would be officially eliminated from the Big Ten East race if it loses to Ohio State – from both conference title and CFP contention. That makes the stakes of Saturday’s game about as high as they can ever be for a regular season game.
Michigan State suffered its only loss of the season two weeks ago against Purdue, but has beaten everyone else it’s played, including another 9-1 top-10 team in Michigan. So the Buckeyes know they need to be at their best this week.
“It’s a huge challenge,” Day said. “And it’s a challenge because they’re very, very good. A top-10 team in the country playing for a chance to go to Indy. We’ve got everything on the line here. And both teams have had to bring it every week for a long time. We’re in November. So you add all those things up, it’s a giant challenge.”
Heisman contenders on both sides
There might not be another game for the rest of the season that has as much of an influence on the Heisman Trophy race as this game, as either C.J. Stroud or Kenneth Walker could leave Ohio Stadium as the Heisman Trophy frontrunner by putting up big numbers to lead his team to a respective win on Saturday.
Stroud is already viewed as the Heisman frontrunners in the eyes of many, currently holding +150 odds to win the trophy on Bovada. How he finishes the season will play a massive role in whether he actually wins the award, but a standout performance to lead Ohio State to a win over a top-10 team could extend his lead in the race.
That said, Walker isn’t far behind, currently holding the third-best odds (+350) to win the award. He’s already had one performance that can be considered a “Heisman moment” by running for 197 yards and five touchdowns in Michigan State’s win over Michigan, and a comparable performance in a win over Ohio State would likely vault him into position to seize the trophy.
On paper, Saturday’s matchup should be much more favorable for Stroud, as Michigan State has allowed more passing yards than any other team in college football while Ohio State ranks 14th nationally in rushing yards allowed. However, Michigan State’s pass defense isn’t quite as bad as the total yards suggest – the Spartans rank 35th in passing yards allowed per attempt, but have faced 50 more passing attempts than any other team in college football – while Ohio State hasn’t faced any running back close to Walker’s caliber since it allowed over 200 rushing yards in each of its first two games against Minnesota and Oregon.
Regardless of how Saturday’s game plays out, it’s likely to have Heisman ramifications for both Stroud and Walker. Stroud says he isn’t thinking about that, though, as he prepares to try to lead the Buckeyes to a win over the Spartans.
“I’m just focused on Michigan State,” Stroud said Wednesday. “Of course it’s a blessing just to even have my name up there, but I don’t even look at that type of stuff, at least I try not to. I even tell my family members not to send stuff like that to me. Just to really focus in on that opponent that week, which this week is Michigan State.”
Senior Day in the Shoe
Although Ohio State hopes it will have the opportunity to still play five more games this season, Saturday will be the final time the Buckeyes play in Ohio Stadium in 2021, as the Michigan State game is Ohio State’s last home game of the year before it finishes the regular season with a road game at Michigan.
That means Saturday will be Senior Day, and two dozen Buckeyes are set to be recognized during a pregame ceremony before kickoff, including team captains Haskell Garrett, Thayer Munford and Chris Olave and numerous other key players including Jeremy Ruckert, Nicholas Petit-Frere, Tyreke Smith, Antwuan Jackson, Sevyn Banks, Cameron Brown and Marcus Williamson.
Day wants the Buckeyes who are playing their final game in the Shoe to enjoy the moment, and he’s proud to honor them for all that they’ve contributed to the program during their years in Columbus.
“I think there’s a lot of pride in being Buckeyes, and I know that going out in the stadium is going to mean a lot to them,” Day said. “There’s been a lot that they’ve done to get to this point, just a lot of work, and they need to enjoy the day and take it all in.”
At the same time, Saturday’s game isn’t the last game of the season, and the Buckeyes can’t allow pregame emotions to distract them from taking care of business once the game kicks off. For that reason, Day says he’s been telling his team all year “don’t wait until the last game to leave it all on the field.” But he also expects the Buckeyes to get an extra jolt of motivation from knowing they’re playing in their home stadium for the final time this year.
“I think that playing the last game in the Horseshoe is emotional, and that’s kind of why we try to talk about it a little bit before during the season so it doesn’t just all bottle up in one game. Because you can get your emotions a little bit out of whack and not play very well,” Day said. “So while it can be a distraction, I think it also can be a motivator. Knowing that this is the last time we’re gonna play in the Horseshoe, let’s make it great.”
Keep An Eye on These Guys
Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker
There’s no question what the top priority for Ohio State’s defense will be against Michigan State, and that will be slowing down Walker. Few individual players have been as integral to their teams’ success this season as Walker, who leads the nation with 1,473 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns on 227 carries through 10 games.
Ohio State’s run defense has been dominant for most of the season, holding all of its last eight opponents to 113 rushing yards or fewer, but facing off against Walker – who’s gained 1,067 of his yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus – will be a true test of just how good Ohio State’s run defense actually is.
“You gotta defeat blocks and you gotta win one-on-one for sure, because you’re gonna need multiple guys to take him down at times,” Day said. “I think he does an excellent job with his patience and he has good vision, but he also can make a guy miss in the hole. And when he does that, he’s created some explosive plays. He’ll make a guy miss and then it goes. And so certainly we gotta tackle well, but if he were to break a tackle, we need somebody else there to clean it up for us. So we’re gonna need multiple guys running to the football.”
Michigan State WR Jayden Reed
As good as Walker is, Ohio State can’t focus entirely on stopping the run, because Michigan State also has weapons who can test the Buckeyes’ pass defense that currently ranks 108th nationally in passing yards allowed per game. It remains uncertain whether Jalen Nailor will be available to play for the Spartans after missing their last two games with a hand injury, but Reed is one player the Buckeyes will certainly need to game plan for.
Reed currently ranks fourth in the Big Ten with 829 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns on 45 catches, while he’s also added a rushing touchdown and two punt return touchdowns.
With 13 plays of 30-plus yards this season, tied for the third-most among all Football Bowl Subdivision players, Reed has proven to be a big-play threat any time he gets the ball – whether that’s through the air, on a running play or as a kickoff or punt returner – so keeping him in check will be a challenge for the Buckeyes on both defense and special teams.
“They’re the No. 1 punt return team in the country, so that’s a big challenge for us this week,” Ohio State special teams coordinator Parker Fleming said Thursday. “We gotta cover really well, because they’re dynamic back there.”
Michigan State S Xavier Henderson
Henderson, who will be back in his home territory on Saturday as a native of Reynoldsburg, Ohio, is the top playmaker on Michigan State’s defense. A graduate of Pickerington Central High School, Henderson leads the Spartans with 82 total tackles and 10 tackles for loss from his strong safety spot while he’s also recorded two pass breakups, one forced fumble and one spectacular one-handed interception.
As a player who can line up just about anywhere on the field, Henderson will play a crucial role in Michigan State’s efforts against both Stroud and the Ohio State passing offense as well as TreVeyon Henderson (no relation) and Ohio State’s rushing offense. Ohio State can expect to see him on the field on just about every play – he’s played the third-most snaps of any defender in the FBS this season, per PFF – and the Spartans are going to need him to make big plays against Ohio State’s No. 1-ranked offense.
Game Week Talk
“Scared money doesn’t win. You have to play to win.”– Mel Tucker
Although Ohio State is favored to win Saturday’s game by nearly three touchdowns, Michigan State isn’t going to back down from the challenge. The Spartans have already defied expectations by going 9-1 this season, and Tucker said this week that he told his team when he arrived that they would be playing for championships, which they now have the chance to do if they can defy expectations again by beating Ohio State.
“When you take a loss early in the year, you kind of hope the schedule plays out to where you’re playing teams that are ranked higher than you, ranked up in the top 10 and that’s kind of how it’s played out, so we’re really thankful for that, being able to prove ourselves this late in the year.”– Garrett Wilson
While Ohio State is ranked three spots ahead of Michigan State in the College Football Playoff rankings, the Spartans will be the highest-ranked team the Buckeyes have played all year, as Oregon was ranked only 12th when it beat Ohio State. The Buckeyes know this is their biggest chance yet to show they’re one of college football’s best teams this year, and they’re excited for the chance to do that, even though they know it won’t happen easily.
“It’s my last game in the Shoe, and I’m definitely not going to take it for granted.”– Chris Olave
Olave has had no shortage of big moments inside Ohio Stadium during his four-year Ohio State career, but Saturday will be the final time he plays in the Shoe before moving onto the NFL after this season. He’ll be motivated to go out on a high note in his final game in Columbus, and he has a chance to make history, as he’s just one touchdown catch away from tying David Boston’s school record for career touchdown receptions.
| Ohio State | Pos | Michigan State |
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| OFFENSE | ||
| C.J. STROUD | QB | PAYTON THORNE |
| TREVEYON HENDERSON | RB | KENNETH WALKER III |
| CHRIS OLAVE | WR | JAYDEN REED |
| GARRETT WILSON | WR | MONTORIE FOSTER |
| JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA | WR | TRE MOSLEY |
| JEREMY RUCKERT | TE | CONNOR HEYWARD |
| NICHOLAS PETIT-FRERE | LT | AJ ARCURI |
| THAYER MUNFORD | LG | J.D. DUPLAIN |
| LUKE WYPLER | C | MATT ALLEN |
| PARIS JOHNSON JR. | RG | BLAKE BUETER |
| DAWAND JONES | RT | KEVIN JARVIS |
| DEFENSE | ||
| ZACH HARRISON | DE | JACUB PANASIUK |
| TYREKE SMITH | DE | DREW BEESLEY |
| HASKELL GARRETT | DT | JACOB SLADE |
| ANTWUAN JACKSON | NT | DASHAUN MALLORY |
| STEELE CHAMBERS | LB | NOAH HARVEY |
| CODY SIMON | LB | CAL HALADAY |
| RONNIE HICKMAN | BLT/NB | DARIUS SNOW |
| DENZEL BURKE | CB | CHESTER KIMBROUGH |
| SEVYN BANKS | CB | RONALD WILLIAMS |
| BRYSON SHAW | S | ANGELO GROSE |
| MARCUS WILLIAMSON | S | XAVIER HENDERSON |
Get Smart
- Ohio State has won its last five consecutive games against Michigan State. The Buckeyes’ last loss against the Spartans came in 2015, when – like this year – the two teams met in Ohio Stadium in the second-to-last week of the regular season with the Big Ten East lead and College Football Playoff hopes on the line for both teams.
- Ohio State has a 34-15 all-time record against Michigan State.
- The Buckeyes have won their last 24 consecutive Big Ten home games dating back to their 2015 loss to Michigan State.
- Ohio State long snapper Bradley Robinson began his college football career at Michigan State in 2016 before transferring to Ohio State in 2017. Two members of Ohio State’s staff are also Michigan State alumni: assistant director of strength and conditioning Niko Palazeti was a fullback for the Spartans from 2010-12, while graduate assistant Grayson Miller was a safety/linebacker for the Spartans from 2015-18.
- Michigan State linebacker Ma’a Gaoteote is the younger brother of Ohio State linebacker Palaie Gaoteote. Michigan State tight end Connor Heyward is the younger brother of former Ohio State defensive lineman Cameron Heyward. Michigan State safety A.J. Kirk is the younger brother of former Ohio State safety Mike Doss.
- Eighteen Michigan State players are from Ohio, including starting safeties Henderson and Angelo Grose, defensive tackle Jacob Slade, offensive linemen AJ Arcuri and J.D. Duplain and kicker Matt Coghlin.
- ESPN’s College GameDay will broadcast outside St. John Arena from 9-11 a.m., while the final hour of the show will be broadcast from inside Ohio Stadium. Saturday will be the 20th time College GameDay has broadcast from Ohio State’s campus and the 51st time GameDay has been at the site of an Ohio State game, both the most of any school.
- Ohio State’s status report of unavailable players is expected to be released at 10 a.m. Saturday.
How It Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -19, O/U 68.5
After Tucker said this week that the notion of a “shootout” made him “want to vomit,” he might want to prepare to get nauseous at Ohio Stadium on Saturday.
Ohio State enters this game averaging a nation-best 46.3 points per game, largely because of its passing offense that averages more than 350 yards per game, so there’s reason to believe Michigan State’s defense will be overmatched considering that it’s given up at least 350 passing yards in each of its last three games. All 14 members of Eleven Warriors’ staff predicted that Ohio State will score at least 38 points in Saturday’s game, and that might be shooting too low if the Buckeyes can avoid the red zone woes that plagued them against Penn State and Nebraska.
The bigger question for Ohio State entering this game, coming off of a game in which it allowed 31 points on 477 yards against Purdue, is how the Buckeyes’ defense will fare against Michigan State’s offense. Between Walker on the ground and Payton Thorne throwing to a variety of receivers in the passing game, Michigan State arguably has a more complete offense than any offense Ohio State has faced yet this season, making this one of the biggest tests of the year to date for both the run and pass defenses.
Yet despite the success Michigan State has had all season and despite the Spartans’ history of late-season upsets against Ohio State, the consensus entering this game is that Ohio State should be able to win by multiple scores. The Buckeyes are favored in Vegas by almost as many points as they were entering last week’s game against Purdue, which they won by 28, and most members of our staff don’t believe the Spartans will ultimately be able to keep pace with the home team in Columbus.
| Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction | ||||
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45 | 24 |
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