Tale of the Tape: Ohio State Has Offensive Edge but Penn State's No. 1 Scoring Defense Will Provide Stiffest Challenge

By Vico on October 23, 2017 at 2:35 pm
Oct 21, 2017; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions players sing the alma-mater following the competition of the game against the Michigan Wolverines at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Michigan 42-13. Mandatory Credit:
Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports
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Ohio State and Penn State play on Saturday night in what promises to be the biggest clash of the conference schedule. There is no shortage of talking points before Saturday's game, among them the playoff implications and the revenge factor. Here, we'll take a look at the mid-season stats for Penn State's playmakers and how they compare to Ohio State's playmakers to gauge what we can expect on Saturday night.

Generally, the stats show Ohio State has the better offense but Penn State has the better defense. J.T. Barrett leads Trace McSorley in almost every offensive category for a passer even though McSorley leads in yards because of more attempts per game. J.K. Dobbins is arguably having a better season rushing than Saquon Barkley at this point though it's clear to all observers that Barkley's real value is in his contributions as a receiver and return specialist. Meanwhile, Penn State will have the best defense the Buckeyes have played yet.

J.T. Barrett Has Slight Edge Over Trace McSorley

The quarterback battle might be the most underappreciated of the upcoming game even though it intrigues for two reasons. First, J.T. Barrett's development is one of the more compelling individual stories of the Big Ten so far. Barrett was never bad by any stretch; indeed, he is a two-time Big Ten quarterback of the year and won last year's Silver Football Award. However, the passing game has shown far more maturity with him as a redshirt senior and with new assistants Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson at the helm.

Further, Saquon Barkley might be the best overall player in the country but most of Penn State's offense still goes through Trace McSorley. May that qualify how much priority we give to Barkley and his role in Penn State's explosive offense and also elevate how important McSorley is to the team.

Head-to-head, the Buckeyes seems to have a small advantage at quarterback

Comparison of J.T. Barrett and Trace McSorley
Quarterback Yards/G Att/G Rating TD/INT Yards/Att Yards Pct. Total Offense/G
J.T. Barrett 262.6 29.4 173.06 21/1 8.9 1838 66.7 313.9
Trace McSorley 268.4 31.4 155.01 14/5 8.5 1879 66.8 304.7

The general theme of these stats is Trace McSorley beats J.T. Barrett, barely, in statistics biased by the more attempts he has. McSorley throws the ball more on average and the completion percentage for both is almost the same. This ultimately gives McSorley the small advantage in yards and yards per game.

However, Barrett beats McSorley in both "quality" stats and some of the quantity stats. Barrett has the higher QB rating, the clear edge in TD/INT ratio, yards per attempt, and even total offense per game despite McSorley also being a credible run threat for Penn State.

J.K. Dobbins Might Be Having a Better Year on the Ground

No one is talking up J.K. Dobbins as a Heisman candidate but he's having a better season than Barkley in a lot of key rushing stats. 

That's a hidden truth about Saquon Barkley so far. He's well en route to a trip to New York in December but he's not leading the Big Ten in any rushing statistic. Indeed, Barkely leads the conference in all-purpose yards because of how Penn State uses him in the passing game. That he also returns kicks and punts puts him well ahead of other backs in the all-purpose yards category.

Comparison of Saquon Barkley and J.K. Dobbins
Running Back Yards/G Att/G TD Avg. Rush Yards Rec. Yards
Saquon Barkley 108.14 16.71 8 6.47 757 448
J.K. Dobbins 110.71 14.29 5 7.75 775 65

While no one would say J.K. Dobbins is more valuable to the Buckeyes than Saquon Barkley is to Penn State, Dobbins' rushing statistics are arguably better. Penn State uses Barkley in more ways, which positions him well as perhaps the country's most valuable player.

That Penn State also uses him in every conceivable way masks that there's going to be a big variance in any given game in how Barkley gets his all-purpose yards.

Saquon Barkley's Yards in Each Game So Far
Game Rushing Att Rushing Yards Rec Rec Yards Return Yards
Akron 14 172 3 54 20
Pittsburgh 14 88 4 45 50
Georgia State 10 47 4 142 37
@ Iowa 28 211 12 94 53
Indiana 20 56 4 51 98
@ Northwestern 16 75 2 9 0
Michigan 15 108 3 53 15

Barkley will have a monster game like the one he had against Iowa (358 all-purpose yards). He'll have others where he did most of his damage on the ground (e.g. Akron, Michigan) and even games where most of his yards came through the passing game (e.g. Georgia State).

Either way, Saquon Barkley is getting his yards. It just may not have to be on a carry from the backfield.

Penn State Will Have the Toughest Defense the Buckeyes Have Played Yet

Ohio State has the better offense but Penn State will have the better defense in almost every way. It'll also be the toughest the Buckeyes have played yet.

Consider the following table of the current status of the defenses the Buckeyes have played to date including where the Buckeyes rank nationally. Penn State beats all of Ohio State's opponents in every category. It even has the conspicuous status as the No. 1 scoring defense in the country. The Nittany Lions concede just 9.6 points per game.

Current National Defensive Category Ranks for Ohio State and its 2017 Opponents So Far
Opponent Rushing Defense Passing Defense Scoring Defense Total Defense
Ohio State 14 37 10 16
Indiana 63 20 56 29
Oklahoma 52 76 60 52
Army 81 45 36 56
UNLV 124 97 111 123
Rutgers 61 71 51 62
Maryland 85 102 113 106
Nebraska 70 79 94 71
Penn State 17 7 1 9

Penn State also compares well in some of the defensive statistics on which Ohio State hangs its hat. College football fans regard the Buckeyes' defensive line as arguably the country's best, comparing favorably to similarly outstanding units at Alabama and Clemson.

However, Penn State compares well to those defensive statistics Ohio State privileges. Penn State leads the conference and beats Ohio State in sacks and TFLs.

Comparing Ohio State and Penn State's Sack and TFL Stats
Defense Sacks Sack Yards Sacks/G TFLs TFL Yards TFL/G
Ohio State 18 122 2.57 58 209 8.29
Penn State 24 160 3.43 59 260 8.43

Ohio State will hope to have used the bye week to its advantage to prepare for Penn State's strengths on offense and defense. Penn State's offense poses its own unique set of challenges, including how to matchup against playmakers like Saquon Barkley. 

Its defense poses a stiff test for the Buckeyes too. J.T. Barrett and the Buckeye have shined against awful competition. Penn State's defense will provide the best test to date of how good the Buckeyes' offense is.

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