If Ohio State Continues Recruiting At This Rate, A Massive Roster Turnover Seems Imminent Ahead of the 2017 Season

By Eric Seger on March 2, 2016 at 8:35 am
Ohio State's football program could undergo a major roster turnover after 2016.
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Recruiting is as much a lifeblood for a college football program as it is a prevention tactic against your enemies — at least in the eyes of the cream of the crop.

Top programs like Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and others recruit the nation's best talent to their campus to play football. But they also go after players when they don't necessarily have space for them at a certain position because they don't want other leaders in the sport — or, even worse, their biggest rivals — signing them. Getting skilled players is essential to any team, but keeping it away from a team you battle every fall is just as important.

Tuesday, Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes received a commitment from Ann Arbor, Michigan, linebacker Antjuan Simmons. Jim Harbaugh and his Michigan team is down in Florida this week opening spring practice at IMG Academy, all while a player from literally their backyard pledged to the enemy. Simmons has more than 30 scholarship offers, one being from Michigan, but all of whom are sure to continue recruiting him until he signs on the dotted line next February.

However, his commitment makes 12 for the class, one of two schools in the country to already have double digit players for 2017 (Miami is the other, with 10).

Meyer and his staff are bound to take at least 20 players in this class, because the need to get talented youth every recruiting cycle is vital. The Buckeyes had 25 players in their 2016 class and needed every single one of them (OK, not quite Drue Chrisman because Cam Johnston is still around, but you get the point) after losing nine guys early to the NFL and saying goodbye to 18 seniors following a 12-1 season.

But what about next season? Ohio State only has six seniors on its roster for 2016 — center Pat Elflein, running back Bri'onte Dunn, wide receivers Corey Smith and Dontre Wilson, defensive back Cam Burrows and Johnston. Burrows could apply for a medical redshirt and get another year of eligibility after next season too. He only played in three games in 2015 due to a foot injury. This is how the scholarship grid looks after the Buckeyes signed their 2016 class:

Position Seniors Juniors Sophomores Redshirt-Freshmen 2016 commitments
QB J.T. BARRETT (R) STEPHEN COLLIER (R) JOE BURROW DWAYNE HASKINS
RB BRI'ONTE DUNN (R) CURTIS SAMUEL MICHAEL WEBER ANTONIO WILLIAMS
DEMARIO MCCALL
WR COREY SMITH (R)
DONTRE WILSON
JAMES CLARK NOAH BROWN (R)
PARRIS CAMPBELL (R)
TERRY MCLAURIN (R)
JOHNNIE DIXON (R)
ALEX STUMP
K.J. HILL
TORRANCE GIBSON
AUSTIN MACK
BINJIMEN VICTOR
TE MARCUS BAUGH RASHOD BERRY
A.J. ALEXANDER
JAKE HAUSMANN
LUKE FARRELL
KIERRE HAWKINS
OL PAT ELFLEIN (R) BILLY PRICE (R)
EVAN LISLE (R)
JAMARCO JONES
 
DEMETRIUS KNOX (R)
BRADY TAYLOR (R)
KYLE TROUT (R)
ISAIAH PRINCE

BRANDEN BOWEN
MATT BURRELL 
KEVIN FEDER
LIAM MCCULLOUGH
GRANT SCHMIDT
TYLER GERALD
JACK WOHLABAUGH
MICHAEL JORDAN
GAVIN CUPP
MALCOLM PRIDGEON
DE TYQUAN LEWIS (R)
JALYN HOLMES
SAM HUBBARD (R)
DARIUS SLADE (R)
DYLAN THOMPSON (R)
JASHON CORNELL
DRE'MONT JONES
JONATHON COOPER
NICK BOSA
DT MICHAEL HILL (R)
DONOVAN MUNGER (R)
TRACY SPRINKLE (R)
JOSHUA ALABI
DAVON HAMILTON
ROBERT LANDERS
MALIK BARROW
LB DANTE BOOKER
RAEKWON MCMILLAN
CHRIS WORLEY (R)
JEROME BAKER
KYLE BERGER (R)
NICK CONNER
JUSTIN HILLIARD
TUF BORLAND
KEANDRE JONES
CB GAREON CONLEY (R)
DAMON WEBB
MARSHON LATTIMORE (R)
DENZEL WARD
ERIC GLOVER-WILLIAMS
JOSHUA NORWOOD KAREEM FELDER
WAYNE DAVIS
JORDAN FULLER
RODJAY BURNS
S CAM BURROWS ERICK SMITH MALIK HOOKER (R) DAMON ARNETTE JAHSEN WINT
K SEAN NUERNBERGER
P CAMERON JOHNSTON DRUE CHRISMAN*
ATH MALIK HARRISON
TOTAL 6 19 17 21 24*

*Chrisman told Eleven Warriors he will grayshirt in 2016.

Meyer announced on Signing Day that linebacker Kyle Berger's football career is over after multiple knee injuries. That left the program with two more players on scholarship than the NCAA allows, a shift Meyer is sure to address once spring practice gets going next week. Schools must be at the 85 mark by the time fall camp opens or the first day of class for that semester, whichever comes first.

Let's say Ohio State's 2017 class finishes with 20 commitments on Signing Day next February. Subtracting the six seniors set to be on scholarship for 2016 means the Buckeyes will be heavy 14 players — or, at 99 total — when stacked against the NCAA-mandated 85 limit. That's quite the disparity.

Shave one off for a presumed early exit by middle linebacker Raekwon McMillan, a team captain and future two-year starter that garnered significant playing time as a freshman in 2014. Beyond him? The list of players who could leave the program while still having eligibility remaining is short.

Billy Price could leave after he competes his third year as a starting guard. So could J.T. Barrett, but neither seem like the type. Corner Gareon Conley is on the cusp to continue the trend of cornerbacks leaving the program early for the pros, following the footsteps of Eli Apple and Bradley Roby. He will need a strong junior season as the team's lead corner to consider that, however.

The same goes for defensive ends Tyquan Lewis, Sam Hubbard and Jalyn Holmes as well as all-purpose back Curtis Samuel. All figure to be integral parts to Ohio State's 2016 season and must be to receive the necessary draft grades to leave school early. They will play key roles next year, but have to stay healthy and produce. Outside of McMillan, there aren't many names to consider right now as definite guys to leave early.

So if — and that's a huge if — those players all elect to do that, that makes eight total and brings the scholarship total down to 91 if the Buckeyes sign 20 guys for 2017.

Reminder: Ohio State already has 12 commits in that class. There are 11 months left in the recruiting cycle.

We are not here to prognosticate on who will no longer be with the program after the 2016 season, whether it be to medical issues, graduation or anything in between. Some guys ultimately could see the light and transfer out for another opportunity elsewhere.

Regardless, it isn't our place to predict the futures of players who came to Ohio State with the plan to perform only to have things not work out for whatever reason.

Still, the 91 leaves a wiggle room of six players for attrition next winter.

Of course, the Buckeyes could take more than 20 players in the 2017 class. They could take less. A player committed in March could change his mind come February.

The variables remain in flux, but it will be an interesting thing to watch. Especially with 45 players on Meyer's team holding freshman eligibility ahead of camp in August.

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