Thad Matta was joking, but Ohio State's head coach may have actually believed himself if he thought about it long enough.
"Knowing the Big Ten," Matta said, "we probably play at Nebraska tomorrow night."
This came directly following the Buckeyes' 72-67 win over Michigan State on Sunday night. Matta was asked a question about Ohio State finally earning its first Big Ten win, but the 13th-year coach responded with an answer related to the Buckeyes' rather difficult opening to the conference season.
| WHO | WHERe | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska (9-8, 3-2 B1G) | Pinnacle Bank Arena (Lincoln, Neb.) | 9 p.m. | BTN |
Ohio State opened Big Ten play with three of four games on the road prior to Sunday's game against the Spartans. And the Buckeyes travel again for their next matchup: a 9 p.m. contest at Nebraska on Wednesday.
It's Ohio State's fourth Big Ten game on the road already, and it's certainly presented this team with a challenge.
"Hopefully we’re learning from game to game to game from being on the road what it takes," Matta said Tuesday. "As I told our guys, you’ve just gotta go, you’ve gotta play."
The Buckeyes certainly hope they can use the momentum created by their first league win to begin a streak in conference play and, potentially, spark a turnaround.
Let's break down Wednesday's matchup between Ohio State and Nebraska a little further.
Opponent Breakdown
It certainly didn't take long for Nebraska to capture the attention of the Big Ten.
After going just 6–6 in the non-conference portion of their schedule, the Huskers started league play with three-straight wins. Nebraska beat Indiana, Maryland and Iowa to open the conference season with the wins over the Hoosiers and Terrapins coming on the road.
It didn't make a ton of sense, but such is life this season in the Big Ten. With no clear-cut favorite to win the league and the bottom half much improved from a season ago, there are no easy nights anymore.
Since that three-game winning streak to open, however, the Huskers have dropped two straight. They lost at home to Northwestern and then fell on the road at Michigan over the weekend, 91–85.
Nebraska has a dynamic backcourt with guards Tai Webster and Glynn Watson. Webster averages 18.3 points per game this season while Watson gives the Huskers 15.1. But the duo has been even better in league play with Webster's average up to 21.4 points per game and Watson's at 21.0.
“We’re going to need everybody on the floor to defend," Matta said. "They’re shifty, they’re crafty and they’re going full speed to the basket. ... I think Nebraska, right now, is playing at a really high level and those guys are obviously the main two for their team statistically.”
Nebraska lost the services of its third-leading scorer, however, as Ed Morrow was recently ruled to be out indefinitely with a foot injury. Morrow averaged 10.1 points per game for the Huskers prior to his injury.
In Ken Pomeroy's advanced statistical ratings, Nebraska currently sits at No. 83 overall — ahead of only Iowa and Rutgers in the Big Ten. The Huskers rank 69th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (98.1 points per 100 possessions) but are just 130th in the country in offensive efficiency (105.9 points per 100 possessions). Webster and Watson combine to take over 50 percent of Nebraska's shots on offense.
Buckeye Breakdown
It certainly wasn't easy, but Ohio State finally broke through the wall Sunday against the Spartans. It was far from perfect, but the Buckeyes' effort — and hot shooting from the outside — helped lift them to their first Big Ten win.
Now, can it continue? Can Ohio State use that win to help spark a turnaround?
Those are the million dollar questions.
"Winning at Ohio State is the standard and it definitely was good to get a win the other day but we realize we still have a lot of work to do," junior center Trevor Thompson said. "We still have to continue to keep playing better, keep getting better as a team. I just think that with that win it kind of shows us that when we compete good things will happen.”
The Buckeyes put all five starters in double figures against the Spartans and made 10 3-pointers on the afternoon. With Keita Bates-Diop out for the season and no go-to scorer, that's Ohio State's recipe for success.
Double-digit makes from behind the 3-point line hadn't happened for the Buckeyes since a Nov. 25 win over Marshall, but the offensive balance is something Ohio State could — and should — try to replicate moving forward. JaQuan Lyle led the way with 22 points against the Spartans, but Jae'Sean Tate, Marc Loving, Kam Williams and Thompson all reached double figures, too.
That's what those five are averaging on the season and that kind of balance is what makes Ohio State the best team it can be without Bates-Diop in the mix.
"That’s kind of when we play our best: when we play together," backup point guard C.J. Jackson said. "We know that if we don't play together, we won’t win. That’s kind of the focus moving forward from this point.”
How It Plays Out
Ohio State hasn't won a game outside of Columbus since the very first game of the season when the Buckeyes knocked off Navy. Since that victory over the Midshipmen, Ohio State is 0–5 in road/neutral site games.
This is a pretty good opportunity to break that streak. This is a very winnable Big Ten road game for the Buckeyes.
KenPom considers Wednesday's matchup a virtual toss-up but gives a slight edge to Nebraska as it gives the Huskers a 53 percent chance to win and predicts a one-point win for the home team.
The hope for Ohio State, though, is that finally breaking through for that first Big Ten win can help provide some momentum for the upcoming league stretch which is rather manageable. After the game against the Huskers, the Buckeyes play Northwestern, Minnesota and Iowa with the first two coming at home. There is potential here for this thing to get turned around.
Ohio State must come out and play against Nebraska the same way it did against Michigan State despite the fact the game is on the road. If the Buckeyes do that, they'll sneak out of Lincoln with a win.
Tim's prediction: Ohio State 71, Nebraska 68
