I hate what happened to Burrow and its terrible he is going to have to go through rehab for incompetent roster building. However, this is likely a blessing in disguise for the Bengals. The injury looked like it could have been catastrophic but is an ACL tear that Burrow will recover 100% from and be back ready for next year. On that front there is no problem.
Most importantly a team that was average in the NFL will very likely end up with the #3 pick. The Bengals are 2-7-1 and have lost four 1-score games already against what are all solid teams. Along with a tie in a very winnable game, doing this all with a rookie QB and players like DJ Reader, Trae Waynes, and Joe Mixon(not to mention the constant OL injuries) all missing serious time is encouraging for the future. The Bengals were in a position to beat WTF, and had a ridiculously easy schedule to end the season. 5.5 wins would have had the Bengals picking right around 16th. Now the Bengals, led by Ryan Finley, have a stranglehold on the #3 pick in every round. Having this pick after hitting a home run on Burrow and Higgins is very rare. A crazy combination of bad luck in games and injuries will allow the franchise to have premier picks.
Free agency- This is another area where there is a big positive. AJ Green and Carlos Dunlap were getting paid $30 million this year and are slated to be paid 0 by the Bengals next year. Mixon, Reader, and Waynes were paid about $25 in just signing bonuses. That is going to be about $50 million freed up with just those players. William Jackson(10M in 2020) and Carl Lawson(2M in 2020) will both need resigned for pretty big deals which could take up a big chunk of the cap, AJ will also likely be resigned for around 10M a year. There is enough money though to go get a couple solid starters for a team that doesnt have too many holes.
Draft Simulation-This is where it gets really exciting. The Bengals are near locks for the #3 pick unless Finley can beat either the Cowboys or Giants. With Lawrence/Fields going 1/2 they basically get the best non-QB in the draft, and we all know who it is..
1-Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon-The best offensive tackle prospect in a long time. 6'5" 325 of a near perfect prospect. Great personality, strength, athleticism, toughness literally everything you could want. The biggest pro is something that is normally overlooked, the dude is young as hell. He just turned 20 and his incredible 2019 season started when he was 18 years old, simply ridiculous. He opted out of this season which means he make take a bit to get up to speed in '21 but who cares. The biggest negative to this pick is it will be difficult to pay Burrow and the best offensive tackle in football at the same time. No other options were considered but Gregory Rousseau as an edge rusher isnt a bad pick and Jamarr Chase as an elite receiver wouldnt be terrible picks. But there would justifiably be riots if they dont take Sewell.
Offensive Line outlook-Sewell is ridiculous and will slot in as LT. Hopkins will be back at center. Quinten Spain will likely be resigned at RG which is a solid piece. Jonah Williams will move back to his college position of RT where he will fit in really well. Bobby Hart is being $5M a year and will likely be cut leaving Adeniji as the swing tackle. The hope would be the biggest offseason target will be to add a good LG.
Sewell-FA-Hopkins-Spain-Williams is a very good offensive line.
2-Chris Olave-WR-OSU- Getting another weapon for Burrow in the post Green era who becomes a really good opposite to Higgins. 6'0" with solid speed but who succeeds by being an elite route runner with great hands. Weaknesses are he is pretty thin and isnt going to be very physical as a blocker or contested catch guy but that isnt his role. Higgins and Olave on the outside with Boyd in the middle is a perfectly rounded out receiving room. Spend Green's potential salary elsewhere. Other options-Rondale Moore would be an option at receiver but he doesnt fit the outside receiver need. Jayson Oweh at EDGE or another pass rusher would be a good fit. There are great IOL but I am assuming Spain and another free agent will have filled those slots.
This is a perfect example of the value of Burrows injury meaning so much. Davonte Smith is a little better than Olave and may have been the pick for the Bengals in round 1, but the difference in value of getting Olave in round 2 instead of Smith in round 1 is ridiculous.
3-Marvin Wilson DT FSU-Some may think its crazy he would end up here after being projected in the first round before the season. But he doesnt have elite level talent and both his 2019 and 2020 seasons ended with injuries. Regardless if its him or not I think this pick would really need to add to the defensive line. Atkins is a non-factor and may not even be back in '21 and having a versatile 6'5" 315 pount DT who can play 1/3-tech is nice to have. EDGE rusher is another pick that would make a lot of sense here.
4-Shaka Toney EDGE PSU- Carl Lawson and Sam Hubbard are two quality starters at EDGE but Hubbard isnt much of a pass rusher and there needs to be more depth here. Shake Toney isnt really a run stopper at all but that wont be his role as a sub player. The EDGE position would have a really nice balance. Hubbard and Lawson are both good starters with Hubbard being a better run defender and Lawson the better pass rusher. Khalid Kareem could come in for Lawson on run downs as a run stopper and Toney could come in for Hubbard on passing downs. You cant be elite everywhere and this would be a creative way to be as good as possible.
