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Ohio State vs. Michigan -- The Common Opponent Transitive Property is Completely Irrelevant

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AVBuckeye's picture
by AVBuckeye
10/23/23 at 2:20p in the OSU Football Forum
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In scouring the forums yesterday and today, I have noticed several posters commenting something to this effect: "We only beat Indiana by 24, and Michigan blasted them 52-7; therefore we are in trouble."

As late October and November play out, it will be tempting to add to the Indiana data point. But the last several years show it is completely meaningless.

In 2021, Ohio State and Michigan had six common opponents -- the five B1G East common opponents and Nebraska. The average scores were as follows:

  • Ohio State: 47.8 - 14.2 (33.6 average margin of victory)
  • Michigan: 32.3 - 20.2 (12.1 average margin of victory)

On average, Ohio State beat the six common opponents by 20 more points than Michigan. That is basically the margin of the lone data point this year (IU) averaged over an entire season. Yet UM beat Ohio State.

In 2022, Ohio State and Michigan again had six common opponents -- the five B1G East common opponents and Iowa. The average scores:

  • Ohio State: 49.2 - 19.2 (30.0 average margin of victory)
  • Michigan: 35.7 - 15.3 (20.4 average margin of victory)

Again Ohio State beat common opponents on average by ten more points than Michigan; but again OSU lost to UM.

For good measure I also looked at the 2018 season, which is the last time Michigan came into The Game favored (as I expect they will be this year).  Again five common B1G East opponents and Nebraska. The average scores:

  • Ohio State: 40.3 - 23.8 (16.5 average margin of victory)
  • Michigan: 39.0 - 12.0 (27.0 average margin of victory)

On average Michigan beat their opponents by 10.5 points per game more than Ohio State. That is a pretty significant number. But UM came into the Horseshoe that day and got blasted into oblivion, 62-39.

***

We all know what happened in these three particular games. The team that looked far more impressive against common opponents all lost. 

The Game more than any other is a styles make fights type of game. Who can dictate the terms of the game, the tempo, the matchups? Who can make the big plays?

Thinking it's decided in the months before is a fool's errand.

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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