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Statistical Comparisons of Playoff Defenses

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NYWoodyFan's picture
1/1/23 at 1:49p in the OSU Football Forum
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Let's take a look at some of the important statistical comparisons of the playoff team defenses based on December 31.

I'll start with a few...supporting a potential hypothesis that Ohio State's defense was no better or worse than Georgia, Michigan, or TCU...depending on the metrics examined. The defenses in all these games should be described in the same terms, since their performances are statistically almost identical. I'll start by throwing out some preliminary observations.

Let's start with this simple one. TCU gave up 45 points to Michigan and won. Ohio State gave up 45 points to Michigan and lost by 22. TCU scored 51 points (with two pick sixes!) while Ohio State scored 23 points. (Does anyone in America think TCU has better offensive personnel than OSU? Or does TCU have a better offensive play-caller?)

Ohio State gave up 530 yards to Michigan. TCU gave up 528 yards to Michigan. 

On to the playoff results. 

Scoring: TCU 51, Michigan 45, Ohio State 42, Georgia 41. Ohio State gave up the same amount of points as everyone else, more or less.

Total Yardage: Georgia 533, Michigan 528, TCU 488, Ohio State 467. Ohio State had the worst OFFENSIVE and DEFENSIVE yardages on the day. The offense was "as bad" as the defense in terms of yards. My argument would be that these teams were all so close, contingencies determined the results. (Injuries, zebras, turnovers, breaks)

Passing: Bennett 398 yards, Stroud 348, McCarthy 343, Duggan 225.  (McCarthy almost out-passed Stroud, and Bennett had the best yardage day)

3rd Down Conversions Made by Offense: TCU 8-16 vs Michigan, Ohio State 4-12, Michigan 3-13, Georgia 2 for 10.  Ohio State's defense had the best 3rd down conversion denial--which mitigates some of the big plays. 

Turnovers: TCU's defense was clearly superior on turnovers by virtue of two pick sixes. Georgia got zero turnovers. 

Overall, there was a razor's edge difference between these defensive performances. This is what playoff offense looks like. Narratives that Ohio State's defense was some sort of utter disaster, while Georgia, TCU, and Michigan played in some superior fashion, is false. 

I could go on, but I'll let others cherry pick some stats to test the hypothesis. And i reserve the right to make a conclusion different from my initial suspicions.

And, for the daring minded, perhaps the bigger fail for Ohio State was really the offense. It did not outscore Michigan as TCU did, and it failed to kick a game winning field goal against Georgia. It produced less yards and less points than anyone on December 31. By a razor's edge.

 

 

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