Throughout the season, I have been analyzing the Ohio State offensive and defensive performance compared to opponents’ seasonal averages. I focus on three key metrics: points, total yardage, and yardage per play. The opponents’ seasonal averages exclude games played against OSU (or whomever I am analyzing). I adjust certain statistics as explained in each section below. I do not adjust for “garbage time” to avoid inconsistently applied judgment and complexity.
With both teams undefeated and ranked among the top 4, only one opponent stands before an epic installment of The Game on November 26. This analysis seeks to compare OSU versus its rival by comparing the opponent-adjusted season stats and how each team has performed against common opponents this season.
Analysis updated for season through November 12, 2022. All statistics and data from https://www.sports-reference.com.
- SCORING DEFENSE
Buckeye opponents have scored 156 total points; however, only 136 points were scored on the Silver Bullets. To analyze defenses, we exclude scores against the offense (e.g., scoop-score or pick-six) and special teams as well as field-goal-equivalent for opponent possessions that start in the red zone. The Silver Bullets allow a net average of 13.6 points per game (PPG). Against other teams, opponents have scored an average 26.7 PPG. The Silver Bullets have held opponents to 48.0% of their season-to-date scoring average.
Maryland scores 28.3 PPG which is a slightly higher than the teams already played. Maryland had scoring success prior to November, but the Terps were held to ten points by Wisconsin then shut out by Penn State.
TTUN opponents have scored 112 total points with 98 points scored against the defense for a net average of 9.8 PPG. Against other teams, TTUN opponents have scored an average 23.6 PPG. TTUN has held opponents to just 42.7% of their average score.
Against five common opponents, TTUN been better defending against the score than Ohio State. The Buckeyes defense had better results against Iowa and Rutgers. TTUN got better results against Penn State and Michigan State. Both teams were equally effective against Indiana. The Hoosiers scored 10 on TTUN and 14 on the Buckeyes (scoring one touchdown on a short field after recovering another muffed punt). TTUN appears to have better scoring defense having allowed 14 fewer points to the common opponents and 38 fewer points to all opponents. TTUN also measures better at holding opponents below their scoring average.
| BUCKS | RATIO | SCORED | AVG | TTUN | RATIO | SCORED | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASON | 0.48 | 13.6 | 26.7 | 0.43 | 9.8 | 23.6 | |
| COMMON | 0.47 | 13.0 | 25.0 | 0.44 | 10.2 | 25.3 | |
| RUTGERS | 0.33 | 7 | 21.3 | 0.48 | 10 | 21.0 | |
| MICH ST | 0.50 | 13 | 25.9 | 0.26 | 7 | 26.6 | |
| IOWA | 0.15 | 3 | 19.6 | 0.76 | 14 | 18.3 | |
| PENN ST | 0.90 | 31 | 34.3 | 0.27 | 10 | 36.7 | |
| INDIANA | 0.46 | 11 | 23.7 | 0.42 | 10 | 23.8 | |
| MARYLAND | NA | NA | 28.3 | 0.95 | 27 | 28.4 |
- SCORING OFFENSE
Buckeye have scored 468 total points; however, only 445 points were scored by the offense. To analyze offenses, we exclude scores by the defense (e.g., scoop-score or pick-six) and special teams as well as field-goal-equivalent for possessions that start in the red zone. The Buckeyes score a net average of 44.5 PPG. Opponents have allowed other teams to score an average 22.6 PPG. Ohio State has scored more than double (218.8%) the scoring allowed by opponents to other teams.
Maryland allows 24.6 PPG which is higher than the teams already played. Maryland had scoring success prior to November, but the Terps were held to ten points by Wisconsin then shut out by Penn State.
TTUN has scored 414 total points with 388 scored on offense for a net average of 38.8 PPG. Against other teams, TTUN opponents have allowed an average 25.1 PPG. TTUN has scored 163.9% of their average score allowed by its opponents.
Against five common opponents, Ohio State has outscored TTUN against each of the teams except Penn State which happened to be TTUN's best offensive scoring performance of the season. Ohio State has the better scoring offense having scored 62 more points against common opponents and posting a much higher rate of points versus opponents scoring average.
| BUCKS | RATIO | SCORED | AVG | TTUN | RATIO | SCORED | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASON | 2.19 | 44.5 | 22.6 | 1.64 | 38.8 | 25.1 | |
| COMMON | 2.40 | 45.8 | 21.3 | 1.66 | 33.4 | 22.7 | |
| RUTGERS | 2.10 | 49 | 23.3 | 1.74 | 42 | 24.1 | |
| MICH ST | 2.14 | 49 | 22.9 | 1.02 | 26 | 25.4 | |
| IOWA | 4.17 | 44 | 10.6 | 2.17 | 27 | 12.4 | |
| PENN ST | 1.96 | 34 | 17.3 | 2.48 | 41 | 16.6 | |
| INDIANA | 1.63 | 53 | 32.6 | 0.89 | 31 | 35.0 | |
| MARYLAND | NA | NA | 24.6 | 1.30 | 31 | 23.9 |
- RUSHING DEFENSE
The Buckeyes have surrendered 1103 rushing yards, an average of 110.3 yards per game (YPG). Against other teams, opponents have rushed an average 139.4 YPG. The Silver Bullets have held opponents to 3.1 rushing yards per carry (YPC). Ohio State has held their opponents’ rushing games to 86.6% of average YPG and 79.0% of the average YPC against other teams.
Maryland rushes for 154.3 YPG and 4.4 per play. By both measures, Maryland has the best rushing attack faced since Penn State. Maryland's rushing game has struggled to get going during the last two games.
TTUN has surrendered 727 rushing yards, an average of 72.7 YPG. Against other teams, opponents have rushed an average 139.7 YPG. That team has held opponents to just 2.6 rushing YPC. TTUN has dominated their opponents rushing offenses holding them to 51.5% of their average YPG and 61.1% of their average YPC.
Against five common opponents, TTUN has better overall measures than Ohio State does defending the run. TTUN has allowed those opponents to rush 344 yards while the Buckeyes have allowed 452 yards. Per play, those measures are closer. TTUN rushing defense allows 2.3 YPP, and the Silver Bullets allow 2.5 YPP.
| BUCKS | RATIO | YPC | AVG | TTUN | RATIO | YPC | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASON | 0.79 | 3.11 | 3.83 | 0.61 | 2.60 | 3.94 | |
| COMMON | 0.73 | 2.53 | 3.71 | 0.48 | 1.92 | 3.75 | |
| RUTGERS | 0.74 | 2.97 | 4.01 | 0.18 | 0.74 | 4.08 | |
| MICH ST | 0.09 | 0.35 | 4.04 | 0.41 | 1.61 | 3.97 | |
| IOWA | 0.73 | 2.20 | 2.99 | 0.48 | 1.46 | 3.02 | |
| PENN ST | 0.69 | 3.36 | 4.89 | 1.07 | 5.05 | 4.74 | |
| INDIANA | 1.42 | 3.75 | 2.64 | 0.26 | 0.76 | 2.96 | |
| MARYLAND | NA | NA | 4.36 | 0.85 | 3.76 | 4.42 |
- RUSHING OFFENSE
The Buckeyes have rushed for 2079 yards, an average of 207.9 YPG and 5.7 YPC. The Buckeyes opponents have allowed other teams to rush an average 138.2 YPG. Ohio State has rushed for 153.6% of the average YPG and 157.2% of the average YPC yielded by opponents against other teams.
It will be critical for Ohio State to build on the Indiana game momentum in its rushing offense. Maryland has allowed other teams to rush for 148.9 YPG and 4.0 per carry. Their defensive front is somewhat porous having allowed the most recent three teams to each rush for over 200 yards.
TTUN has gained 2514 rushing yards, an average of 251.4 per game and 5.6 per carry. TTUN opponents allow teams to rush an average 145.3 YPG and 3.88 YPC. TTUN has pushed the rushing offense on opponents at 193.4% of their average YPG and 150.7% of their average YPC.
Against five common opponents, Ohio State and TTUN are competitive. TTUN has gained significantly more total rushing yardage, but Ohio State higher yardage per carry. TTUN calls running plays 63.3% of its offensive snaps while Ohio State features a more balanced attack running the ball 54.8% of its plays. Per play, both teams are essentially equally productive with rushing offense.
| BUCKS | RATIO | YPC | AVG | TTUN | RATIO | YPC | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASON | 1.57 | 5.74 | 3.60 | 1.51 | 5.62 | 3.88 | |
| COMMON | 1.50 | 5.29 | 3.46 | 1.666 | 5.29 | 3.36 | |
| RUTGERS | 2.14 | 7.41 | 3.46 | 1.49 | 5.332 | 3.58 | |
| MICH ST | 1.26 | 5.15 | 4.08 | 1.31 | 5.31 | 4.04 | |
| IOWA | 0.85 | 2.20 | 2.58 | 1.76 | 4.10 | 2.33 | |
| PENN ST | 1.05 | 3.77 | 3.60 | 2.69 | 7.60 | 2.83 | |
| INDIANA | 2.19 | 7.91 | 3.60 | 1.03 | 4.13 | 4.02 | |
| MARYLAND | NA | NA | 4.01 | 1.61 | 6.08 | 3.76 |
- PASSING DEFENSE
The Buckeyes have surrendered 1612 passing yards, an average of 161.2 YPG. Against other teams, opponents have passed an average 217.1 YPG. The Silver Bullets have held opponents to 6.1 passing yards per play (YPP). Opponents complete 56.4% of their passes against the Silver Bullets, gaining 10.8 per completion. Ohio State has held their opponents’ passing games to 73.0% of average YPG and 85.6% of the average YPP against other teams.
Maryland passes for 242.0 per game and 7.4 per play. By both measures, Maryland has the best passing attack faced since Penn State. Maryland's passing game has struggled to get going during the last two games.
TTUN has surrendered 1601 passing yards, an average of 160.1 YPG. Against other teams, opponents have passed an average 206.3 YPG. That team has held opponents to just 5.3 passing YPP. Opponents complete 52.0% of their passes against the skunk weasels, gaining 10.1 per completion. TTUN has held their opponents’ passing offenses to 79.2% of their average YPG and 78.8% of their average YPP.
Against five common opponents, Ohio State has a slight advantage over TTUN defending the pass. The Buckeyes had been putting up much better measures until the Indiana game where they allowed over 13 yards per completion albeit on just nine completions. TTUN has allowed the five common opponents to pass for 410 more yards than the Buckeyes have allowed. Per play, TTUN allows almost a yard more to those common opponents.
| BUCKS | RATIO | YPP | AVG | TTUN | RATIO | YPP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASON | 0.86 | 6.11 | 6.93 | 0.79 | 5.27 | 6.61 | |
| COMMON | 0.83 | 5.44 | 6.48 | 0.96 | 6.08 | 6.43 | |
| RUTGERS | 0.66 | 4.00 | 6.09 | 0.96 | 5.72 | 5.97 | |
| MICH ST | 0.96 | 6.96 | 7.24 | 0.99 | 7.17 | 7.22 | |
| IOWA | 0.56 | 3.38 | 6.08 | 1.43 | 7.94 | 5.55 | |
| PENN ST | 1.06 | 7.89 | 7.48 | 0.70 | 5.41 | 7.74 | |
| INDIANA | 0.90 | 4.96 | 5.51 | 0.73 | 4.14 | 5.65 | |
| MARYLAND | NA | NA | 7.42 | 0.92 | 6.90 | 7.49 |
- PASSING OFFENSE
The Buckeyes have passed for 2940 yards, an average of 294.0 YPG and 9.9 YPP. The Buckeyes opponents have allowed other teams to pass an average 204.0 YPG. Ohio State completes 67.8% of their passes and gains 14.6 per completion. Ohio State has passed for 150.0% of the average YPG and 157.8% of the average YPP yielded by opponents against other teams.
Maryland has allowed other teams to pass for 232.1 YPG and 6.3 YPP. Their defensive backend plays with average effectiveness for the B1G, but they have improved over recent weeks.
TTUN has gained 2089 passing yards, an average of 208.9 per game and 8.1 per play. TTUN opponents allow teams to pass an average 229.4 YPG and 6.77 YPP. They complete 67.6% of their passes and gain 11.9 per completion. TTUN has been underwhelming when they do pass with their offensive production at 91.7% of their opponents average YPG and 120.2% of their average YPP.
Against common opponents, Ohio State has consistently shown a superior passing offense compared with TTUN. In those five games, the Bucks have gained 366 more passing yards, and Ohio State gains about three more yards per play. With college football's best QB slinging the ball to the best group of receivers in the game, Ohio State has a distinct passing offense advantage.
| BUCKS | RATIO | YPP | AVG | TTUN | RATIO | YPP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASON | 1.58 | 9.87 | 6.48 | 1.20 | 8.07 | 6.77 | |
| COMMON | 1.61 | 10.05 | 6.35 | 1.00 | 6.59 | 6.69 | |
| RUTGERS | 1.2 | 6.44 | 6.34 | 0.87 | 5.59 | 6.42 | |
| MICH ST | 1.84 | 13.46 | 7.32 | 0.81 | 6.42 | 7.97 | |
| IOWA | 1.96 | 9.19 | 4.69 | 1.29 | 6.46 | 5.02 | |
| PENN ST | 1.84 | 10.41 | 5.66 | 0.99 | 6.04 | 6.12 | |
| INDIANA | 1.39 | 10.73 | 7.73 | 1.06 | 8.44 | 7.94 | |
| MARYLAND | NA | NA | 6.32 | 1.37 | 8.46 | 6.16 |
- CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
DEFENSE. The Silver Bullets and TTUN have accumulated comparable defensive statistics when adjusted for opponent averages. TTUN has established a significant advantage defending against the run. The Silver Bullets have a more balanced approach while consistently holding opponents below their average production.
OFFENSE. While Ohio State has garnered criticism of its running game, and TTUN has earned accolades, the two teams have surprisingly comparable running game production. Ohio State has established abundant evidence that its passing offense is clearly superior to TTUN which has struggled to develop a passing offense that it could rely upon if needed.
Next week, the analysis will align opposite sides of the line of scrimmage. How does Ohio State's offense match up against TTUN's D, and how do the Silver Bullets defend against TTUN's run heavy offense?
