Throughout the season, I have been analyzing the Buckeyes offensive performance compared to opponents’ seasonal averages. I focus on three key metrics: points, total yardage, and yardage per play. The opponents’ seasonal averages exclude games played against OSU (or whomever I am analyzing). I adjust all statistics for those that I deem not accountable to the offense (i.e., points scored by special teams or the defense—such as JT Tuimoloau’s pick-6 at Penn State—and field-goal-equivalent points scored on drives that start in the red zone—such as the Rutgers muffed punt). I do not adjust for “garbage time” because that gets exceedingly complex when measuring against seasonal averages and when some position groups keep playing starters while other positions substitute backups.
See Defense v. Opponent Season Averages (and TTUN) for a similar look at the defense. Analysis updated for season through November 5, 2022. All statistics and data from https://www.sports-reference.com.
- SCORING
THE BUCKEYES have scored 412 total points; however, the offense has scored 392 of those points. We exclude two field goals on possessions that started in the red zone and two pick-6 scores. In fairness, I apply the same method when evaluating other teams. The net averages 43.6 points per game (PPG). Against other teams, opponents have allowed an average 21.4 PPG. Ohio State has scored 225.1% of their opponents' season-to-date average PPG.
This weekend against Northwestern was Ohio State’s worst scoring performance this season. Entering the contest, Northwestern was allowing teams to score 28.8 on average, but the Buckeyes could only muster 21 points against their defense and the wind. That low production was just 73% of the season scoring average against Northwestern. Scoring 44 on Iowa remains Ohio State's best performance. While Iowa has allowed just 10.6 PPG, Ohio State scored 414% of that seasonal average.
Ohio State gets a chance to right the ship against Indiana which allows opponents to score 32.2 PPG, the most of any team on the 2022 schedule.
TTUN has scored 380 total points with 354 of those scored on offense. Season to date, TTUN has scored 39.3 PPG while their opponents allowed an average 24.6. TTUN has scored 167.6% of their opponents average PPG allowed.
After beating Rutgers, TTUN now has four common opponents with Ohio State. The Buckeyes outscored TTUN against each of those except Penn State. With Ohio State's relatively low 21 points on Northwestern, the Buckeyes season-to-date, scoring is just 4 PPG more than TTUN. Still, that higher PPG becomes more pronounced considering Ohio State opponents to date have better scoring defenses than the teams TTUN has faced.
| BUCKS | RATIO | POINTS | AVG | TTUN | RATIO | POINTS | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASON | 2.25 | 392 | 21.4 | SEASON | 1.68 | 354 | 24.6 |
| ND | 0.99 | 21 | 21.3 | Colo St | 1.62 | 48 | 29.6 |
| Ark St | 1.53 | 45 | 29.4 | Hawaii | 1.67 | 56 | 33.6 |
| Toledo | 3.73 | 77 | 20.6 | Conn | 2.41 | 52 | 21.6 |
| Wiscy | 3.13 | 52 | 16.6 | Mary | 1.34 | 31 | 23.1 |
| Rutger | 2.14 | 49 | 22.9 | Iowa | 2.12 | 27 | 12.8 |
| Mich St | 2.12 | 49 | 23.1 | Indiana | 0.96 | 31 | 32.4 |
| Iowa | 4.14 | 44 | 10.6 | Penn St | 2.20 | 41 | 18.6 |
| Penn St | 1.74 | 34 | 19.5 | Mich St | 1.00 | 26 | 26.0 |
| Nwestern | 0.73 | 21 | 28.8 | Rutger | 1.77 | 42 | 23.8 |
- YARDAGE PRODUCED
THE BUCKEYES have produced 4357 total yards (1739 rushing and 2618 passing) an average of 484.1 total yards per game (YPG) (193.2 rushing and 290.9 passing). Against other teams, opponents have allowed an average 334.8 YPG. Ohio State has produced 148.1% of their opponents' seasonal yardage allowed.
Northwestern was Ohio State’s worst offensive production game this season. The Buckeyes 283 yards was 70% of the seasonal average YPG allowed by Northwestern and was the first game that the Bucks failed to outgain their opponents seasonal average. Toledo was Ohio State's best offensive production this season with 763 yards, 258% of the seasonal average YPG allowed to their other opponents.
Indiana's defense allows 421.8 YPG (again, the most of any team on Ohio State's schedule) so it should be easier for the Buckeyes to move the ball and get the offense back on track.
TTUN has produced 4191 total yards including 2250 rushing and 1941 passing. Per game, they have 465.7 total YPG (250.0 rushing and 215.7 passing). Against other teams, their opponents have allowed an average 365.7 YPG. TTUN has produced 128.6% of their opponents' seasonal yardage allowed.
Against the common opponents, the Buckeyes outperformed against Iowa and Sparty but underperformed against Penn State and Rutgers. For the season-to-date, Ohio State's offensive production remains higher than TTUN. Though that difference has narrowed following the weekend winds in Evanston. As with scoring, the Buckeyes schedule has encountered teams that generally allow fewer yards against their defenses than the teams TTUN has faced.
| BUCKS | RATIO | YARDS | AVG | TTUN | RATIO | YARDS | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASON | 1.48 | 484.1 | 334.8 | SEASON | 1.29 | 465.7 | 365.7 |
| ND | 1.23 | 395 | 320.3 | Colo St | 1.14 | 440 | 386.4 |
| Ark St | 1.39 | 538 | 387.0 | Hawaii | 1.36 | 588 | 433.3 |
| Toledo | 2.58 | 763 | 295.5 | Conn | 1.24 | 465 | 376.0 |
| Wiscy | 1.80 | 539 | 299.0 | Mary | 1.26 | 463 | 366.8 |
| Rutger | 1.39 | 413 | 297.8 | Iowa | 1.27 | 327 | 256.6 |
| Mich St | 1.52 | 614 | 403.3 | Indiana | 1.13 | 469 | 415.9 |
| Iowa | 1.43 | 360 | 252.5 | Penn St | 1.67 | 563 | 337.0 |
| Penn St | 1.29 | 452 | 350.9 | Mich St | 1.04 | 443 | 424.6 |
| Nwestern | 0.70 | 283 | 407.1 | Rutger | 1.47 | 433 | 295.3 |
- YARDS PER PLAY
THE BUCKEYES have produced 7.38 yards per play (YPP) (5.36 rushing and 9.64 passing). Against other teams, opponents have allowed an average 4.89 YPP. On average, Ohio State has produced 153.9% of what their opponents allow per play.
As with total yardage, Northwestern was Ohio State’s worst offensive production per play and the first time this season that the Bucks underperformed versus their opponents' seasonal averages. The Buckeyes 4.64 YPP was just 79% of the seasonal average YPP allowed by Northwestern. Toledo was Ohio State's best offensive production per play gaining 9.78 YPP, 235% of the seasonal average YPP allowed to their other opponents.
Already yielding a lot of points and total yardage, Indiana consistently yields big yardage per play. They allow 5.42 YPP (a respectable 3.60 rushing and 7.73 passing) to their opponents. Ohio State should be able to produce big plays on offense against IU.
TTUN has produced 6.70 total YPP (5.66 rushing and 8.20 passing). Against other teams, their opponents have allowed an average 5.19 YPP. TTUN has produced 128.8% of their opponents' seasonal YPP allowed.
Against each of the four common opponents, the Buckeyes outperformed TTUN per play offensive production. For the season-to-date, Ohio State's production per play is significantly higher than TTUN. Ohio State rushes for 95% of the TTUN rushing YPP and passes for 118% of the average TTUN passing play. Relative to opponents’ seasonal averages, Ohio State widens the margin against TTUN because the Buckeyes have faced generally better defenses at limiting offenses per play.
| BUCKS | RATIO | YPP | AVG | TTUN | RATIO | YPP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASON | 1.57 | 7.38 | 4.89 | SEASON | 1.29 | 6.70 | 5.19 |
| ND | 1.15 | 5.72 | 4.99 | Colo St | 1.20 | 6.47 | 5.39 |
| Ark St | 1.76 | 9.96 | 5.67 | Hawaii | 1.65 | 10.69 | 6.49 |
| Toledo | 2.35 | 9.78 | 4.16 | Conn | 1.24 | 6.74 | 5.42 |
| Wiscy | 1.64 | 7.70 | 4.70 | Mary | 1.43 | 7.02 | 4.90 |
| Rutger | 1.53 | 7.00 | 4.57 | Iowa | 1.33 | 4.95 | 3.72 |
| Mich St | 1.51 | 8.30 | 5.51 | Indiana | 1.16 | 6.17 | 5.32 |
| Iowa | 1.60 | 5.81 | 3.63 | Penn St | 1.46 | 7.13 | 4.88 |
| Penn St | 1.53 | 7.53 | 4.92 | Mich St | 0.97 | 5.68 | 5.84 |
| Nwestern | 0.79 | 4.64 | 5.86 | Rutger | 1.15 | 5.41 | 4.72 |
- CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
There is an axiom that says, “Once is an event. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a trend.”
Ohio State’s sluggish offensive performance against Northwestern could reasonably be viewed as an “event” under horrible weather conditions. Yet, Ohio State’s offense has three consecutive games with significant issues to clean up, especially in the short yardage running game. The Buckeyes need to reestablish offensive superiority before the November 26 clash with TTUN.
