This week was great at establishing the pecking order of the playoff picture the rest of the way. Here are updated odds from vegas insider(a site that averages odds from different betting places)
Heisman
- CJ Stroud(+200)-A tough game with less than 100 yards passing and 0 touch downs. The rushing yards and win saved it from being a disaster. Stroud still the clear favorite and a win over Michigan likely equates to a Heisman win. The overall numbers are still really impressive.
- Hendon Hooker(+300)-195 yards on 33 passes, 0 TDs, and an INT was a bad performance in a beatdown. The Bama miracle win also looks a bit less impressive. Hooker doesnt really have a chance at a big moment the rest of the year either, they finish with SCAR, UK, and Vanderbilt. They are blocked from the SEC championship by UGA. Only hope would be to continue putting up crazy numbers and Stroud losing or falling off.
- Blake Corum(+700) Already up to 1200 rushing yards and 16 TDs for an undefeated Michigan team. Hard for a non big name RB to win the Heisman. If Corum continues putting up big numbers, runs over OSU, and wins the B1G,he would be a coin flip with Hooker.
- Caleb Williams(+700) QB for 1 loss USC who has put up good numbers. If they can win out while he dominates and the guys ahead of him struggle he may be the default winner.
National Championship Odds
- Summary-Before this week it seemed likely 2 SEC teams plus OSU would make it. Now Bama and Tennessee are both most likely eliminated. This means that OSU/UGA would have free wins in the first round assuming they win out. Its also important to understand power ratings have UGA/OSU as well above everybody else, Michigan is a step down, and then the rest of the teams are really far behind.
- UGA(+100)-UGA has had a massive increase in odds. Beating Tennessee locks up the east and now with Bama out of the picture they are almost 100% likely to win the SEC and make the playoffs. Their strong performance and a weak OSU/Michigan performance also moves them from a likely underdog to favorite at this point.
- OSU(+189)-In a similar position as last week. Still have a big game against Michigan that is needed to make the playoff. Beyond that they are now an underdog to UGA in a potential championship but they also now likely have an easier first round matchup.
- Michigan(+850)-Basically in the same position as OSU. Has to win @OSU to make the playoffs but no other game is an L before the playoffs. Would be a heavy favorite in the first round of the playoffs, but would then be a big underdog to UGA.
- Every other team is either +1700 or more. Championship race down to 3 teams.
- Fanduel- Their numbers are really skewing the average, they are so different from the rest. They have Georgia -120 when the rest have +110, OSU at +250 when the rest are around +180, they have also completley discounted Bama and TCU giving them +5000, when others offer +2000.
538 Playoff Predictor
- #1 Georgia. The rest of the schedule is MS State, UK, and GaTech which are all wins. Then UGA has to beat LSU to lock up the #1 seed.
- #2 OSU/Michigan winner-Both should be undefeated leading into the game and them have an easy game in the conference championship.
- The last two spots are then an interesting race. First come 1 loss conference champs which can be Big 12(TCU who can also be undefeated) ACC(Clemson/North Carolina) and then Pac12(Oregon, USC, UCLA) if there arent 2 1 loss champions then Tennessee and the OSU/Michigan loser would fill the slots. If OSU loses the Michigan game they would likely be ahead of a couple 1 loss champs with wins over Notre Dame and PSU and a loss to undefeated Michigan.