After doing these write-ups week after week for the past year and a half, it has become clear that not all games are created equal when it comes to genuine takeaways. Unfortunately, there was only so much we could learn about the defense after Ohio State played Iowa. Similarly, I explicitly mentioned that there wasn’t much to be gleaned from playing against Michigan State’s defense. For the next two weeks, this is going to get even worse. I have noticed that individual talent can shine in these games, but the group always looks great, so I end up making banal observations like “Yeah, this team is really good.”

Penn State is the first game this year where Ohio State faced a genuine challenge. Furthermore, it is the first game this season where the opponent’s quality is similar enough to last year that we can start to make some comparisons between this year’s team and last year’s team. There are plenty of differences, which we will discuss later. For now, though, I want to touch on my initial thoughts before my re-watch of the game.

Like many of you, I saw quite a few things live that looked to be explanations for why the offense was struggling. Matthew Jones looked like he was constantly getting beat. The offensive line as a whole wasn’t getting any push up front. Stover couldn’t get out to the edge fast enough to block the wide receiver screens. Speaking of which, why were they calling screens in the first place, as they never seemed to work? The only real positive on offense was that it felt like Harrison and Stroud bailed out the offense with their excellence.

Of course, on re-watch, my opinion changed quite a bit:

I never expect people to read that whole thing; it is really just a reference for those who are curious about how I graded a particular play. To make my thoughts more easily digestible, here is the summary of each player’s scores:

So where was I wrong? Basically everywhere.

The play-calling was the first thing that I was upset about, but after re-watching the game, I get why the game was called the way it was. Just a quick note about my play-calling score – I call it that as it is easy to understand, but it is really a situational play-calling score. MGoBlog, from whom I have adopted this grading system, calls it RPS, or Rock, Paper, Scissors, the idea being that some plays are good against others. For example, a slip screen might be a great call against an 8-man blitz, but a horrible call when 8 players are dropping and the ends are playing conservatively. Oftentimes, the most effective plays did not necessarily gain points from me for being a good play call. Some of the throws from Stroud to Harrison were excellent plays, but they were not a product of calling the play at the right time, it was a result of quality execution.  

This is also why I liked the screens, as most of the screens were just reliefs for run plays. If Stroud sees that the box is stacked, and the defensive backs are playing backed, he can throw the quick screen to a wide receiver. This is usually a guaranteed five yards in most games this season but was not in this game for a multitude of reasons. Still, I think Stroud made the right decision every time he chose to throw the screen, and the one screen that wasn’t an RPO was a good call given the numbers out there. Running the ball into a stacked box against Iowa was no fun, so having another method of moving the ball is always a good option to have. Were there better ways to attack Penn State’s defense? Sure, and they found it later in the game. I think screens were a great idea. Still, it wasn’t successful due to some very poor execution.

At first, I thought it was Stover to blame, as he looked to be unable to make blocks on a few plays. After review, it looks to me like a couple of those are on Fleming instead. Multiple times the corner would rush into the backfield and blow up the screen, with Fleming failing to make the block. A couple of times, this looked to be mental (2Q, 10:05; 3Q 1:38), but on the first play of the game, it looked like he just got beat. Not his best game, especially for a guy who is supposed to be the best blocking wide receiver on the team. He is the guy you are supposed to be able to block screens with, and he struggled almost every time he had an opportunity. Stover, conversely, had a great game once again. Yes, he was responsible for one of the screens getting blown up, but I liked most of his day. I know he won’t be voted as First-Team All-B1G, but he needs to be in the conversation.

Matthew Jones, instead of having the worst day, had the best one. Some of the runs were tough to tell, but generally, when it looked like Jones was getting beat, it was a result of a missed or mistimed double-team by Wypler. There were multiple plays where it looked like if Wypler would have held on to the double-team for a beat longer, the run would have been a success. Of course, it was a difficult assignment for Wypler due to the linebackers playing so close to the line of scrimmage and playing the run ultra-aggressively.

It wasn’t like the rest of the offensive line had a poor day either. The line graded out more in the positive than the negative. And while the specific number doesn’t seem overwhelmingly positive, context is important here. I graded the team’s performance last year, and against a similarly talented team, they played much better this year. Last year:

Whenever I grade players, not giving them a grade is fine; it means that they did their job. For jobs that are tougher than others or for exceptional individual efforts, I may reward positive points. Getting more than 50% positive points in the 2022 game means that the team was doing a better job than not at doing their job. The same cannot be said for the 2021 offensive line. Yes, I know Arnold Ebiketie was arguably the best defensive end in the conference, but it wasn’t just him; it was the whole team who had success against last year’s offensive line.

This leads me to my biggest takeaway from this game, and that is to marvel at the improvement from the team as a whole. Last year, every member of the offensive line finished with negative points. This year, only Donovan Jackson did, and he only finished half of a point down. Dawand Jones has not had the down games from last year. PJJ has only improved from last year in his more natural position at tackle. Wypler got pushed into the backfield all the time last year by guys like Mustipher, including in the 2021 version of the Penn State game. This year, those mistakes are minimized. Henderson was up and down last year and constantly missing holes. This year, while he disappeared at times, he got yards where there were none last year. Ruckert had a really rough game last year. Stover was very good.

Even beyond that, though, last year’s mistakes felt more due to an inability to play with Penn State. Dawand Jones and Petit-Frere got repeatedly beaten because they weren’t good enough players to hang with Penn State’s edge rush. Wypler was pushed back as the center constantly last year by guys like Mustipher. Ruckert wasn’t strong enough to get much push in the run game. This year, Wypler isn’t getting pushed back into the quarterback. The tackles aren’t regularly getting beat by defensive ends. Instead, most of these mistakes felt coachable. It is hard to coach a guy to not get pushed back, but it is very possible to coach a guy to hang on to his combo block just a hair longer before moving up to the second level. I think you could see it in this game as well; last year, Ohio State never really pulled away because some of the players were not as good as the opponents they were playing. This year, once the team made the necessary adjustments, the offense couldn’t be stopped.

Stroud was better this year too:

I was a little more generous with my grading last year, but even so, he was clearly better this year on the road. More perfect passes with fewer inaccurate and okay passes. My other hot take from this game outside of the appreciation of screens is that I think C.J. Stroud might be underrated by the hardcore fans and is properly rated by the casuals who heard that he is the likely #1 pick in the draft. His arm talent is truly exceptional, and I have not seen an Ohio State quarterback with that type of arm talent with that level of processing ability. And while I am one of the last people to want Stroud to run ever, I thought he took off and ran when it was appropriate, and he was decisive when doing it, which he hasn’t been in recent weeks.

The receivers were the only real part of the team that disappointed me after watching a second time, excepting Marvin Harrison Jr. Egbuka was hung out to dry a couple of times, but outside of the late throw downfield there weren’t a ton to take away from his game. Fleming has been quite good recently but did not play great today including his blocking. I think this is certainly a case where it is very much necessary for JSN to come back to the lineup, even if it is just for the playoffs. If he isn’t 100% going into the Michigan game, he should wait. Because while I think JSN takes the offense to a new level, I do not think Michigan has the same type of offense as some other potential playoff contenders. I think Ohio State can survive a defensive slugfest against Michigan. I do not think that is wise in January. They will need JSN back. If they have him healthy, they are going to win a national championship. Every other piece is in place.

What should we be worried about?

Slow adjustments from the coaching staff and general sluggishness of the offense early on in games. This could happen at times last year, but not nearly for as long of stretches as this year. Having said that, I don’t think it is nearly as dire as last year to the greater number of possessions for the offense this year, which allows the Ohio State offense to take their time figuring out their opponent. While I don’t think the situation is as dire as last year, this doesn’t feel like the late 2010’s juggernaut college football offense. At this point, I am nitpicking because this team is easily good enough to win a national championship.

What should we not be worried about?

The running game. I liked what I saw for the most part from the linemen and Henderson. Penn State is ultra-aggressive on zone run schemes, so they were always going to be a handful. Once Ohio State ran a couple of power runs late, Penn State was completely taken out of the play. The second Henderson touchdown is a perfect example of this.

The running game is never going to be dominant against a great defense; it just needs to be an acceptable compliment to help assist the passing game. This offense checks off that requirement.

What should we be excited about?

The improvement we have already seen. Compared to last year’s Penn State game, this game was so refreshing to watch. The offensive line looks better. Henderson looks better. Stover continues to look like an upgrade. Stroud is better. Even the receivers might be better with a healthy JSN. Even though this was the closest game all year, I think it made me most optimistic for the end of the year. The only reason it feels like they aren't scoring every drive is because they rarely all perform their best at the same time. When they do, they are unstoppable.